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Saudi Arabia Sends High-Ranking Delegation to World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum 2024 will be held in Davos (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum 2024 will be held in Davos (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Sends High-Ranking Delegation to World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum 2024 will be held in Davos (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum 2024 will be held in Davos (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia announced that a high-ranking delegation will participate in the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting 2024 in Davos, Switzerland, from January 15-19, under the theme of "Rebuilding Trust."

The delegation, chaired by Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Abdallah, includes Saudi Ambassador to the US Princess Reema bint Bandar, Minister of Commerce Majid al-Kassabi, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and Envoy for Climate Adel al-Jubeir, Minister of Investment Khalid al-Falih, Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan, Minister of Communications and Information Technology Abdullah al-Swaha, Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar al-Khorayef, and Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal al-Ibrahim.

- Current challenges

The Saudi delegation will address these era-defining challenges by working with the international community to advance substantive global collaboration, drive economic resilience, build sustainable resource security, and harness human-centric innovation.

It would also explore the opportunities offered by emerging technologies and their impact on the policy and decision-making process.

The Saudi delegation will highlight the social and economic progress made within the framework of Vision 2030, the transformation, diversification, and development witnessed by the Kingdom in various fields, and the multiple investment opportunities available across the nation's thriving economy.

- Competitive capabilities

The Saudi delegation will share its expertise in enhancing the Kingdom's attractiveness as a private and foreign investment destination.

The delegation will also review the best practices and solutions developed by the Kingdom to enhance the economy's resilience and achieve financial sustainability, in line with its ambitions for economic diversification and sustainable growth under Vision 2030.

- Enhancing cooperation

The 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum will discuss ways to enhance cooperation between the public and private sectors to explore future opportunities, review solutions and developments within various economic and development sectors within the framework of international cooperation, and joint work between governments and various institutions.

The Forum brings together representatives from more than 100 governments, major international organizations, and more than 1,000 major private sector players, in addition to representatives of civil society and academic institutions.

The theme "Rebuilding Trust" highlights the importance of joint international action in confronting humanitarian, climate, social, and economic challenges.

- Global risks

In addition, the Global Risks Report 2024 issued by the World Economic Forum warned of a global risk landscape that will witness a decline in human development. It will weaken countries and individuals and expose them to new risks.

Given the systemic changes in global power mechanisms, climate, technology, and demographic distribution, global risks impose significant pressures that may exhaust the world's ability to adapt.

The report said that these matters are among its most prominent findings, which showed that cooperation on global issues is declining and that there is an urgent need to adopt approaches to address global risks.

The transnational risks will become harder to handle as global cooperation erodes.

In this year's Global Risks Perception Survey, two-thirds of respondents predict that a multipolar order will dominate in the next ten years as middle and great powers set and enforce – but also contest – current rules and norms.

WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said underlying geopolitical tensions combined with the eruption of active hostilities in multiple regions contribute to an unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives, eroding trust, and insecurity.

Zahidi warned that the situation leaves ample room for accelerating risks – like misinformation and disinformation – to propagate in societies that have already been politically and economically weakened in recent years.

- Misinformation and Conflict

Emerging as the most severe global risk anticipated over the next two years, foreign and domestic actors will leverage misinformation and disinformation to widen societal and political divides further.

Cost-of-living pressures continue to bite amidst persistently elevated inflation, interest rates, and economic uncertainty in much of the world.

Misinformation and disinformation have risen rapidly in rankings to first place for the two-year timeframe, and the risk is likely to become more acute as elections in several economies take place this year.

Interstate armed conflict is a new entrant into the top risk rankings over the two-year horizon as both a product and driver of state fragility.

With many conflicts currently ongoing in different parts of the world, the risks of geopolitical tensions and declining community resilience may lead to the spread of conflict contagion.

- Economic uncertainty and declining development

The continued state of economic uncertainty and the widening of the financial and technical gap are among the most prominent features of the coming years, and the lack of economic opportunities ranked sixth in risks over the next two years.

In the long term, obstacles to economic mobility are expected to increase, which will lead to the deprivation of large segments of the population of economic opportunities.

In addition, countries affected by conflict or climate risks may become isolated from investment, advanced technologies, and new employment opportunities.

In the absence of guaranteed and secure livelihoods, individuals may become more vulnerable to involvement in crime, militancy, and extremism.

- The planet is in danger

It is expected that environmental risks continue to dominate the risk landscape over all three timeframes, while the report called on business leaders to reconsider the steps that must be taken to confront global risks.

The report recommended focusing global cooperation efforts on accelerating the construction of protection barriers against the most urgent emerging risks, such as signing agreements to integrate artificial intelligence in the decision-making process.

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Business

Fitch Affirms Saudi Arabia at 'A+', Outlook Stable

A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
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Fitch Affirms Saudi Arabia at 'A+', Outlook Stable

A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Saudi Arabia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at "A+" with a Stable Outlook, the agency said on Friday.

The rating reflects strong fiscal and external balance sheets, with government debt/GDP and sovereign net foreign assets (SNFA) considerably stronger than the "A" and "AA'" medians, and significant fiscal buffers in the form of deposits and other public sector assets, it added.

"Oil dependence and World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have improved but remain weaknesses. Geopolitical risk is high, but the economy and public finances have been resilient to the US-Iran war," it stressed.

"Fitch forecasts real GDP growth will slow to 0.6% in 2026 due to disruption to trade caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz," it continued.

"Flows through the East-West pipeline supported oil production during the war and we expect output to be ramped up to meet external demand following the reopening of the Strait and to rebuild domestic stocks, but at an annual average of 9m b/d it will be below the 2025 level," it said.

"Non-oil growth will be hit by an inability to export petrochemicals during the closure of the Strait, but consumer spending held up and business confidence is recovering."

"Growth will rebound in 2027 as the normalization of flows through the Strait allows higher oil and petrochemicals production, before easing to 2.9% in 2028 The phased opening of gigaprojects (many of which have launched initial operations), the proximity of key events and guidance that the Public Investment Fund will keep domestic spending largely unchanged in its new five-year plan, will also support growth," Fitch noted.

The King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia (SPA)

"The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow in 2026 owing to higher oil revenues, as prices will offset lower volumes. Spending will also rise, reflecting the impact of the war, but much of the jump in 1Q was the precautionary frontloading of spending from later in the year," it said.

Fitch forecasts that lower oil revenues will widen the deficit to 4.7% in 2027, consistent with a fiscal breakeven oil price of USD94/b.

Spending is expected to decline in 2027, due to an easing of war-related pressures, lower capex and ongoing efforts to reduce rigidities in current spending. Expenditure adjustment will allow the deficit to narrow in 2028 despite a projected further fall in oil prices.

"Our fiscal projections are consistent with a further increase in debt/GDP, which we project at 41.3% at end-2028 (projected peer median of 58.1%), from 31.8% at end-2025. based on deposits remaining around 10% of GDP," said Fitch.

"Fitch forecasts a small current account surplus for 2026 due to higher oil export revenues. Lower oil prices and ongoing domestic demand growth that has a heavy component of imported goods, services and labor, will lead to a deficit of 5% of GDP by 2028. Current account deficits will be financed by external borrowing and the ongoing reorientation of public assets to domestic from foreign investments," it continued.

"Banks have been resilient to the war and did not require any support measures from the central bank," it stressed. "At end-1Q, non-performing loans were 1.1% and the Tier 1 capital ratio 19.2%, both improved from end-2024. Credit growth has slowed, particularly mortgages, in response to policy measures, and is being outpaced by deposit growth."

Fitch maintained its mid-year 2026 sector outlook for Saudi banks at "neutral".

Business

Renewed US-Iran Conflict Narrows Egypt’s Economic Growth Prospects

 A traditional market in Egypt’s Giza Governorate. (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
 A traditional market in Egypt’s Giza Governorate. (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
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Renewed US-Iran Conflict Narrows Egypt’s Economic Growth Prospects

 A traditional market in Egypt’s Giza Governorate. (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
 A traditional market in Egypt’s Giza Governorate. (Asharq Al-Awsat) 

The renewed US-Iran conflict in the Middle East is expected to further curb Egypt’s economic growth prospects as global oil prices are forecast to rise again, while several sectors of the economy continue to grapple with the effects of months of conflict, analysts say.

In its latest World Economic Outlook report released days ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for Egypt’s economic growth in fiscal year 2026-27 to 4.4 percent, down from the 4.8 percent projected in April. The IMF cited “the continuing impact of the Iran conflict — particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — on the Middle East, weaker investment, higher financing costs, and persistent uncertainty.”

Economist Wael El-Nahas said the downgrade is “not limited to Egypt but reflects the global economy as a whole in light of the conflict’s repercussions,” describing the revision as both natural and expected.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, El-Nahas noted that the current period of skirmishes between the two sides could be viewed as a period of tacit understandings, allowing oil supplies to keep flowing while limiting sharp increases in food prices and other commodities. However, he warned that a renewed conflict would bring “a much worse period.”

Financial markets researcher Mohamed Mahdy Abdulnabi told Asharq Al-Awsat that geopolitical tensions are the main driver behind the weaker growth outlook.

He said Egypt faces several challenges under the current circumstances, including higher borrowing costs, greater reluctance among lenders to extend new financing, declining foreign investment, stagnation in the private sector, and continued losses at the Suez Canal.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has previously estimated the canal’s losses at $10 billion, citing regional tensions and their impact on Red Sea shipping.

Abdulnabi warned that if the conflict persists, pressure on Egypt’s economy will intensify. “When global oil prices fell below $70 a barrel, the Egyptian government did not cut domestic fuel prices. But as soon as prices began rising again, discussion resumed over the automatic fuel pricing mechanism and the need to increase fuel prices,” he remarked.

The government raised fuel prices by between 14 and 30 percent last March, just 10 days after the US-Iran conflict erupted, amid rising energy import costs.

El-Nahas warned that global oil prices could climb above $100 a barrel, noting that Egypt’s current state budget is based on an assumed oil price of about $75 a barrel. Any increase, he said, would raise the country’s energy import bill and widen the budget deficit. He also cautioned that it could trigger another round of fuel price hikes, further worsening the cost-of-living crisis.

Egypt’s annual inflation rate stood at 14.3 percent in June, down slightly from 14.6 percent in May.

Despite the risks, El-Nahas stressed that some sectors, particularly tourism, still have strong growth prospects despite the renewed US-Iran conflict.

 

 

Business

China Temporarily Bans Helium Exports as US-Iran Tensions Flare Again

Ships and containers at a Chinese port (Reuters)
Ships and containers at a Chinese port (Reuters)
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China Temporarily Bans Helium Exports as US-Iran Tensions Flare Again

Ships and containers at a Chinese port (Reuters)
Ships and containers at a Chinese port (Reuters)

China announced on Friday a temporary export ban on helium, effective immediately, as resumption of military conflict in the Middle East threatens to trigger new shortages of the gas critical for chip manufacturing.

Earlier this year, the US-Israeli war on Iran led to helium shortages, disrupting companies globally, including in China, where the AI industry increasingly relies on domestic chips for training and ⁠running AI models. Helium is essential for heat management in semiconductor production.

The helium ban is the latest example of Beijing seeking to prevent domestic shortages of critical materials by curbing exports. It has previously imposed similar measures on fuel, fertilizers and sulfuric acid.

China is also looking to boost domestic chip manufacturing capacity and reduce the industry's dependence on cutting-edge Nvidia semiconductors that fall under US export controls.

China is heavily ⁠dependent on overseas helium despite efforts to expand domestic production.

Still, the export ban could squeeze global supply further because Chinese companies have increasingly acted as intermediaries, importing Russian helium and re-exporting some volumes to overseas markets, including Europe.

According to Reuters, analysts ⁠estimate China imports around 85% or more of its helium requirements. Qatar accounts for a major share of global helium output and has supplied more than half ⁠of China's imports in recent years.

Helium is extracted from natural gas fields with unusually high helium concentrations and cannot be quickly manufactured from ⁠other industrial processes.

In chipmaking, it is used for wafer cooling, plasma etching, chemical vapor deposition, atomic layer deposition, lithography support and leak detection.