Six months since the start of military confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon, the front remains open to all possibilities with escalating military operations and threats on both sides.
Meanwhile, the attention is turning to the outcome of the ongoing negotiations regarding a ceasefire in Gaza, although it carries no guarantees that it could be extended to South of Lebanon.
On October 8, under the slogan of “supporting Gaza”, Hezbollah launched fire from South Lebanon towards Israel following Hamas’ initiation of “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation.
However, this “backing” turned into open confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel, which did not suffice with bombing military posts of the party, but also adopted an assassination policy targeting senior figures and widening the geographical scope of its bombardment and breaching the rules of engagement.
The Israeli war machine resumed assassinating several Hezbollah and Hamas leaders by targeting them in their cars or homes inside the Lebanese territory .
It also focused on bombing Hezbollah's infrastructure in attempts that seem to aim at cutting supply lines, including weapon depots and military centers, as repeatedly announced by Israel.
This ongoing escalation between Hezbollah and Israel leaves confrontations open to all possibilities in light of Israel’s continuous threats.
Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Galant, said after his meeting with the US envoy, Amos Hochstein, a few days ago, that the “ongoing tension with Hezbollah on the Lebanese border brings the situation closer to military escalation”.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah deputy secretary-general, Naim Qassem, believes there is a “90 percent chance that there will be no widespread war in Lebanon...we make sacrifices to prevent Lebanon from being dragged into war”, he said.
The Israeli side rejects linking any prospects for a ceasefire in Gaza to the situation in South Lebanon. But American officials have expressed their concern about Israel carrying out a ground incursion into Lebanon in the coming months."
Last week, CNN said that senior US officials expressed concern that Israel may be planning a ground incursion into Lebanon within months if diplomatic efforts fail to push the Lebanese group away from the borders with Israel.
Retired Lebanese Brigadier General Abdul Rahman Shehaitli, told Asharq Al-Awsat that an Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon was unlikely, noting that if it were to happen, it would be limited to villages near the border.
Sami Nader, director of the Middle East Institute for Strategic Affairs, told Asharq Al-Awsat that “Israel would focus more on the northern front if a ceasefire was reached in Gaza.'"
Lebanese officials emphasize the necessity of implementing UN Resolution 1701, and halting Israeli violations and hostilities. Israel on the other side, demands the evacuation of Hezbollah fighters from the border area and their retreat to a distance not less than 7 km away from its northern border, a demand rejected by Hezbollah.
