Escalation in Northern Israel Could Develop into Third Lebanon War

A photo of military drills released by the Israeli army spokesman.
A photo of military drills released by the Israeli army spokesman.
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Escalation in Northern Israel Could Develop into Third Lebanon War

A photo of military drills released by the Israeli army spokesman.
A photo of military drills released by the Israeli army spokesman.

With the severe escalation in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in recent days, Israeli authorities are once again talking about the inevitability of a third Lebanon war and are preparing the public for such a possibility.

On Monday, the Israeli army announced a new exercise to “examine the effectiveness of coordination between military commands in the event of a widescale war with Lebanon,” with the participation of Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, the head of the Military Intelligence Division, Aharon Haliva, Air Force Commander Tomer Bar, and the commander of the northern region, Uri Gordin.

The army spokesman also announced that the 146th Division and the 205th Reserve Armored Brigade had carried out drills over the past few weeks simulating combat scenarios on the northern front and the rapid deployment of forces in the field.

Military sources said Israel is awaiting a major development that would leave behind a large number of Israeli casualties to use as a pretext to launch a long comprehensive war on Lebanon.

Yedioth Ahronoth’s military correspondent, Yoav Zeitoun, revealed that the Israeli army expects the scope of the war with Lebanon to expand to include the Houthis in Yemen and Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria.

He noted that the recent exercises took into account the possibility that Iran would enter the battle directly this time. Air drills were carried out over Greece during which the army trained to supply 130 combat aircraft with fuel. The exercises saw the participation of “friendly” armies, the correspondent said without giving further details.

On Sunday, the Alma Research Center, which specializes in monitoring Israel’s northern front, issued a report saying May witnessed a peak in combat escalation. The report said Hezbollah launched 325 attacks on northern Israel during this period, with an average of 10 attacks per day, compared to 238 in April.



After US Exemption, UN Says More Significant Syria Sanctions Work Needed

A general view shows Damascus from Mount Qasioun, after one month since the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 7, 2025. (Reuters)
A general view shows Damascus from Mount Qasioun, after one month since the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 7, 2025. (Reuters)
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After US Exemption, UN Says More Significant Syria Sanctions Work Needed

A general view shows Damascus from Mount Qasioun, after one month since the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 7, 2025. (Reuters)
A general view shows Damascus from Mount Qasioun, after one month since the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 7, 2025. (Reuters)

A US sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria is welcome, but "much more significant work ... will inevitably be necessary," the UN special envoy on Syria, Geir Pedersen, told the Security Council on Wednesday.

After 13 years of civil war, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad was ousted in a lightening offensive by opposition forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group a month ago.

The US, Britain, the European Union and others imposed tough sanctions on Syria after a crackdown by Assad on pro-democracy protests in 2011 that spiraled into war. But the new reality in Syria has been further complicated by sanctions on HTS - and some leaders - for its days as an al-Qaeda affiliate.

"I welcome the recent issuance of a new temporary General License by the United States government. But much more significant work in fully addressing sanctions and designations will inevitably be necessary," Pedersen told the council.

The US on Monday issued a sanctions exemption, known as a general license, for transactions with governing institutions in Syria for six months in an effort to ease the flow of humanitarian assistance and allow some energy transactions.

"The United States welcomes positive messages from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, but will ultimately look for progress in actions, not words," deputy US Ambassador to the UN Dorothy Camille Shea told the Security Council.

The foreign ministry in Damascus on Wednesday welcomed the US move and called for a full lifting of restrictions to support Syria's recovery.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said earlier on Wednesday that European Union sanctions on Syria that obstruct the delivery of humanitarian aid and hinder the country's recovery could be lifted swiftly.

Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia criticized the sanctions imposed on Syria by Washington and others, adding: "As a result, the Syrian economy is under extreme pressure and is not able to cope with the challenges facing the country." Russia was an Assad ally throughout the war.

'END THE SUFFERING'

Formerly known as Nusra Front, HTS was al-Qaeda's official wing in Syria until breaking ties in 2016. Along with unilateral measures, the group has also been on the UN Security Council al-Qaeda and ISIS sanctions list for more than a decade, subjected to a global assets freeze and arms embargo.

There are no UN sanctions on Syria over the civil war.

Syria's UN Ambassador Koussay Aldahhak was appointed a year ago by Assad's government but told the council on Wednesday that he was speaking for the caretaker authorities.

"It is high time to end the suffering, to enable Syrians to live in security and prosperity, to live a dignified life in their country, to build a better future for their country," Aldahhak said.

"For this reason, we call upon the United Nations and its member states to immediately and fully lift the unilateral coercive measures to provide the necessary financing to meet humanitarian needs and recover basic services," he said.

Pedersen said he is seeking to work with the caretaker authorities in Syria "on how the nascent and important ideas and steps so far articulated and initiated could be developed towards a credible and inclusive political transition."

Pedersen said attacks on Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity must stop, specifically calling out Israel.

As Assad's government crumbled towards the end of last year, Israel launched a series of strikes against Syrian military infrastructure and weapons manufacturing sites to prevent them falling into the hands of enemies.

"Reports of the IDF using live ammunition against civilians, displacement and destruction of civilian infrastructure are also very worrying," Pedersen said. "Such violations, along with Israeli airstrikes in other parts of Syria – reported even last week in Aleppo – could further jeopardize the prospects for an orderly political transition."