Ukraine Summit Sees Hard Road to Peace as Way Forward Uncertain

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy looks on between two bilateral meetings during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine, in Stansstad near Lucerne, Switzerland, 15 June 2024. (EPA)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy looks on between two bilateral meetings during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine, in Stansstad near Lucerne, Switzerland, 15 June 2024. (EPA)
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Ukraine Summit Sees Hard Road to Peace as Way Forward Uncertain

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy looks on between two bilateral meetings during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine, in Stansstad near Lucerne, Switzerland, 15 June 2024. (EPA)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy looks on between two bilateral meetings during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine, in Stansstad near Lucerne, Switzerland, 15 June 2024. (EPA)

Western powers and their allies at a summit in Switzerland denounced Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Sunday, but they failed to persuade major non-aligned states to join their final statement, and no country came forward to host a sequel.

Over 90 countries attended the two-day talks at a Swiss Alpine resort at the behest of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, billed as a "peace summit" even though Moscow was not invited.

Russia ridiculed the event from afar. A decision by China to stay away all but assured that the summit would fail to achieve Ukraine's goal of persuading major countries from the "global South" to join in isolating Russia.

Brazil attended only as an "observer". And in the end, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa all withheld their signatures from the summit communique, even though some contentious issues were omitted in the hope of drawing wider support.

Still, the conference provided Kyiv with a chance to showcase the support from Western allies that it says it needs to keep fighting against a far bigger enemy.

"We are responding to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine not only with a full-scale defense of human life, but also with full-scale diplomacy," Zelenskiy said.

Leaders including US Vice President Kamala Harris, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron gathered at the mountaintop resort of Buergenstock. US President Joe Biden, in Europe for other events last week, did not attend despite public invitations from Zelenskiy.

The frontlines in Ukraine have barely moved since the end of 2022, despite tens of thousands of dead on both sides in relentless trench warfare, the bloodiest fighting in Europe since World War Two.

In her closing remarks, Swiss President Viola Amherd warned that the "road ahead is long and challenging".

Russia, as it has for weeks, mocked the gathering.

"None of the participants in the 'peace forum' knows what he is doing there and what his role is," said Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's former president and now deputy chairman of the country's Security Council.

'THINGS CAN'T GO ON LIKE THIS'

After initial Ukrainian successes that saw Kyiv repel an assault on the capital and recapture territory in the war's first year, a major Ukrainian counter-offensive using donated Western tanks fizzled last year. Russian forces still hold a fifth of Ukraine and are again advancing, albeit slowly. No peace talks have been held for more than two years.

"We know that peace in Ukraine will not be achieved in one step, it will be a journey," European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen said, calling for "patience and determination".

"It was not a peace negotiation because (Russia's President Vladimir) Putin is not serious about ending the war, he's insisting on capitulation, he's insisting on ceding Ukrainian territory - even territory that today is not occupied."

In the absence of a clear path to ending the war, Zelenskiy emphasized practical issues, such as nuclear safety and securing food supplies from Ukraine, one of the world's biggest grain exporters.

The summit's final declaration called for Ukraine's control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and its Azov Sea ports to be restored. But in line with the conference's more modest stated aims, it omitted tougher issues of what a post-war settlement for Ukraine might look like, whether Ukraine could join the NATO alliance or how troop withdrawals from both sides might work.

"The more allies that can be found to say 'Things can't go on like this', 'This is too much', 'That's overstepping the mark', that also increases the moral pressure on the Russian Federation," said Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer.

As Sunday's talks turned towards issues of food security and nuclear power, some leaders left early.

Since initial peace talks in the first months after the Feb. 2022 invasion, Ukraine has consistently demanded Russia withdraw from all its land, while Moscow has demanded recognition of its rule over territory its forces captured.

Last week, in remarks clearly aimed at the conference, Putin said Russia would not halt the war until Kyiv withdraws its forces fully from four provinces that Moscow only partially controls and claims to have annexed. Kyiv swiftly denounced that as a demand for surrender.

"Of course we...understand perfectly that a time will come when it will be necessary to talk to Russia," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said. "But our position is very clear: We will not allow Russia to speak in the language of ultimatums like it is speaking now."

Western leaders at the summit endorsed Kyiv's refusal to negotiate under such terms.

"Confusing peace with subjugation would set a dangerous precedent for everyone," said Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.



France Has a New Government, Again. Politics and Crushing Debt Complicate Next Steps

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
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France Has a New Government, Again. Politics and Crushing Debt Complicate Next Steps

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)

France’s president and prime minister managed to form a new government just in time for the holidays. Now comes the hard part.

Crushing debt, intensifying pressure from the nationalist far right, wars in Europe and the Middle East: Challenges abound for President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Francois Bayrou after an already tumultuous 2024.

What's wrong with French finances? The most urgent order of business is passing a 2025 budget. Financial markets, ratings agencies and the European Commission are pushing France to bring down its deficit, to comply with EU rules limiting debt and keep France’s borrowing costs from spiraling. That would threaten the stability and prosperity of all countries that share the euro currency.

France’s debt is currently estimated at a staggering 112% of gross domestic product. It grew further after the government gave aid payments to businesses and workers during COVID-19 lockdowns even as the pandemic depressed growth, and capped household energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. The bill is now coming due.

But France’s previous government collapsed this month because Marine Le Pen’s far-right party and left-wing lawmakers opposed 60 billion euros in spending cuts and tax hikes in the original 2025 budget plan. Bayrou and new Finance Minister Eric Lombard are expected to scale back some of those promises, but the calculations are tough.

“The political situation is difficult. The international situation is dangerous, and the economic context is fragile,” Lombard, a low-profile banker who advised a Socialist government in the 1990s, said upon taking office.

“The environmental emergency, the social emergency, developing our businesses — these innumerable challenges require us to treat our endemic illness: the deficit,” he said. “The more we are indebted, the more the debt costs, and the more it suffocates the country.”

How long will this government last? This is France’s fourth government in the past year. No party has a parliamentary majority and the new Cabinet can only survive with the support of lawmakers on the center-right and center-left.

Le Pen — Macron’s fiercest rival — was instrumental in ousting the previous government by joining left-wing forces in a no-confidence vote. Bayrou consulted her when forming the new government and Le Pen remains a powerful force.

That angers left-wing groups, who had expected more influence in the new Cabinet, and who say promised spending cuts will hurt working-class families and small businesses hardest. Left-wing voters, meanwhile, feel betrayed ever since a coalition from the left won the most seats in the summer's snap legislative elections but failed to secure a government.

The possibility of a new no-confidence vote looms, though it's not clear how many parties would support it.

What about Macron? Macron has repeatedly said he will remain president until his term expires in 2027.

But France's constitution and current structure, dating from 1958 and called the Fifth Republic, were designed to ensure stability after a period of turmoil. If this new government collapses within months and the country remains in political paralysis, pressure will mount for Macron to step down and call early elections.

Le Pen's ascendant National Rally is intent on bringing Macron down. But Le Pen faces her own headaches: A March court ruling over alleged illegal party financing could see her barred from running for office.

What else is on the agenda? The National Rally and hard-right Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau want tougher immigration rules. But Bayrou wants to focus on making existing rules work. “There are plenty of (immigration) laws that exist. None is being applied,” he said Monday on broadcaster BFM-TV, to criticism from conservatives.

Military spending is a key issue amid fears about European security and pressure from US President-elect Donald Trump for Europe to spend more on its own defense. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who champions military aid for Ukraine and ramping up weapons production, kept his job and stressed in a statement Tuesday the need to face down “accumulating threats” against France.

More immediately, Macron wants an emergency law in early January to allow sped-up reconstruction of the cyclone-ravaged French territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean off Africa. Thousands of people are in emergency shelters and authorities are still counting the dead more than a week after the devastation.

Meanwhile the government in the restive French South Pacific territory of New Caledonia collapsed Tuesday in a wave of resignations by pro-independence figures — another challenge for the new overseas affairs minister, Manuel Valls, and the incoming Cabinet.