Brent Crude Oil Holds Above $87 a Barrel

An aerial view shows Vladimir Arsenyev tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
An aerial view shows Vladimir Arsenyev tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Brent Crude Oil Holds Above $87 a Barrel

An aerial view shows Vladimir Arsenyev tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
An aerial view shows Vladimir Arsenyev tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Oil prices for Brent crude held above $87 a barrel on Thursday, near their highest level since late April after data the previous day showed a decline in US inventories.

Brent crude futures were down 29 cents, or 0.3%, at $87.05 a barrel by 1323 GMT. US. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $83.48 in trade thinned by the US Independence Day holiday.

In the previous session, Brent gained 1.3% to settle at $87.34 for its highest close since April 30. WTI, meanwhile, had settled at an 11-week high of $83.88.

Those gains followed a larger than expected decline in US crude stocks. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 12.2 million draw in inventories. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a draw of 680,000 barrels.

Oil prices had earlier dropped by as much as 83 cents, but the dip was expected not to last given dollar weakness and a brighter outlook for US fuel demand after the EIA data, said PVM analyst Tamas Varga, Reuters reported.

However, German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in May, adding to signs that a recovery for Europe's largest economy remains elusive.

Demand concerns were heightened by US data on Wednesday showing that first-time applications for US unemployment benefits increased last week while jobless numbers also rose.

Countering that, weaker economic data could hasten interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, analysts said, which could be supportive for oil markets.

Softer US data has already prompted markets to lift the probability of a September rate cut to 74% from 65%.

Swiss bank UBS expects Brent crude to reach $90 a barrel this quarter, it said in a note to clients, citing OPEC+ production cuts and projected declines in oil inventories.

 

 

 

 

 



US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
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US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment slipped to 4.1%, further reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain large interest rate cuts at its remaining two meetings this year.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 159,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 140,000 positions after advancing by a previously reported 142,000 in August.
The initial payrolls count for August has typically been revised higher over the past decade. Estimates for September's job gains ranged from 70,000 to 220,000.
The US labor market slowdown is being driven by tepid hiring against the backdrop of increased labor supply stemming mostly from a rise in immigration. Layoffs have remained low, which is underpinning the economy through solid consumer spending.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% after gaining 0.5% in August. Wages increased 4% year-on-year after climbing 3.9% in August.
The US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August. It has jumped from 3.4% in April 2023, in part boosted by the 16-24 age cohort and rise in temporary layoffs during the annual automobile plant shutdowns in July.
The US Federal Reserve's policy setting committee kicked off its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut last month and Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized growing concerns over the health of the labor market.
While the labor market has taken a step back, annual benchmark revisions to national accounts data last week showed the economy in a much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings and corporate profits.
This improved economic backdrop was acknowledged by Powell this week when he pushed back against investors' expectations for another half-percentage-point rate cut in November, saying “this is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”
The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023, and delivered its first rate cut since 2020 last month. Its policy rate is currently set in the 4.75%-5.00% band.
Early on Friday, financial markets saw a roughly 71.5% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in November, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The odds of a 50 basis points cut were around 28.5%.