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Iraq Doesn't Expect Major Changes with Pezeshkian’s Election as Iran’s President

A man holds up a poster of Iran's newly-elected president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on July 6, 2024. (AFP)
A man holds up a poster of Iran's newly-elected president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on July 6, 2024. (AFP)
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Iraq Doesn't Expect Major Changes with Pezeshkian’s Election as Iran’s President

A man holds up a poster of Iran's newly-elected president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on July 6, 2024. (AFP)
A man holds up a poster of Iran's newly-elected president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on July 6, 2024. (AFP)

Iraq welcomed on Saturday the election of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian as president of Iran.

Officials congratulated him on his victory, calling for bolstering relations. Meanwhile, experts predicted little change in Iran’s policy towards Iraq given the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) influence over the file.

Pezeshkian won the runoff election on Saturday, defeating ultraconservative Saeed Jalili.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani congratulated Pezeshkian on his win, wishing him success and stressing the depth of relations between their countries.

He called for maintaining coordination at the highest levels in all fields to serve common interests.

Iraqi President Abdullatif Rashid congratulated Iran on the success of the elections and Pezeshkian on his victory. He stressed his keenness on boosting ties with Tehran.

President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region Nechervan Barzani offered his congratulations, saying he was looking forward to developing “the old friendship and continuing joint cooperation with Iran based on joint interests and the principle of good neighborliness.”

Kurdistan Prime Minister Masrour Barzani described Iran as an important neighbor to the Region and Iraq. He also said Erbil was keen on deepening relations with it.

Sudani’s advisor for international affairs Farhad Alaaldin said Pezeshkian’s time in office will be a “natural extension of the presidency of late President Ebrahim Raisi.”

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said Iraq looks to the “constants” in relations with Iran regardless of the people in power.

Raisi was planning on visiting Baghdad before he died. Iraq is now looking forward to Pezeshkian continuing what his predecessor was working on, he went on to say.

Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei has advised Pezeshkian to follow in Raisi’s footsteps.

Head of the Waey movement Salah al-Arbawi said the victory of a reformist candidate will lead to little change in policy in Iran. However, the election of a Republican American president, with a history with Iran, will lead to several changes in the region, he added in reference to Donald Trump.

Iraq is greatly affected by regional and international developments, he told Asharq Al-Awsat. “The rise of reformists in Iran and Trump’s expected victory is a double-edged sword.”

He added that Iraq does not have a full control over its “sovereign decision-making" and it is usually vulnerable to developments between Iran and the US, which demanded that authorities maintain a policy of disassociation.

Political science professor at the Al-Nahrain University Yassine Bakri said Iran’s foreign policy is shaped by several circles, but Khamenei ultimately has the final say, especially in strategic issues.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the IRGC primarily handles Iraqi affairs. The IRGC works a lot closer to Khamenei than the foreign ministry and president.

So, it doesn’t really matter whether a reformist or hardliner wins the presidency in Iran, he explained.

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Lebanese Parties Warn Against Hezbollah Keeping Light Weapons

Lebanese Shiite mourners gathered on Monday in Beirut’s southern suburbs to mark Ashura in a ceremony organized by Hezbollah (AFP)
Lebanese Shiite mourners gathered on Monday in Beirut’s southern suburbs to mark Ashura in a ceremony organized by Hezbollah (AFP)
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Lebanese Parties Warn Against Hezbollah Keeping Light Weapons

Lebanese Shiite mourners gathered on Monday in Beirut’s southern suburbs to mark Ashura in a ceremony organized by Hezbollah (AFP)
Lebanese Shiite mourners gathered on Monday in Beirut’s southern suburbs to mark Ashura in a ceremony organized by Hezbollah (AFP)

A recent proposal circulating in Lebanon that would allow Hezbollah to retain its light weapons while surrendering heavy and medium arms has triggered widespread political backlash, with critics warning it poses a grave threat to state sovereignty and public safety.

The suggestion, floated amid long-running debate over the group’s arsenal, argues that other political parties and armed groups also possess light weapons for various reasons. But key political factions have rejected the idea outright, citing Lebanon’s bloody past and the potential for renewed violence.

Opponents of the proposal have pointed to the events of May 7, 2008, when Hezbollah fighters overran parts of Beirut and Mount Lebanon in a show of military force, underscoring the dangers of allowing any non-state group to keep arms.

“Classifying weapons as heavy, medium or light is useless,” said Kataeb Party leader Sami Gemayel in a post on X. “If heavy arms threaten Lebanon’s regional security, light weapons are even more dangerous to the foundations of the state.”

Gemayel reiterated that only the Lebanese army and legitimate security forces should bear arms, calling for the country to be entirely free of weapons held by non-state actors.

MP Ghada Ayoub, of the Lebanese Forces-led "Strong Republic" bloc, echoed that view, insisting the state must assert full sovereignty over all Lebanese territory and outlaw any form of armed presence outside the official security apparatus.

“There is only one armed group operating outside the state, and that is Hezbollah,” Ayoub told Asharq al-Awsat. “It must become a purely political party and clearly, unequivocally declare an end to its military activity.”

Ayoub also criticized recent remarks by Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, who vowed the group’s “resistance” would continue “without asking anyone’s permission.”

“The Lebanese state is responsible for enforcing a monopoly on the use of arms,” she said. “It must stop playing the role of a mediator or hiding behind the fear of war and internal strife. Time is not on Lebanon’s side.”

Ahmad Al-Kheir, a lawmaker with the “National Moderation” bloc, dismissed the proposal as “stillborn,” warning that light weapons have already been used to intimidate citizens and skew political dynamics.

“We saw yesterday how light arms were paraded through Beirut’s streets in a blatant attempt at provocation and coercion,” he said. “This is the real danger - using these weapons as leverage in political life, as we saw in the May 7 events and the occupation of downtown Beirut.”

“No one in Lebanon will accept this,” Al-Kheir added.

Additionally, critics warn that allowing any non-state entity to retain weapons threatens state authority and risks further destabilizing the country.

Al-Kheir urged Hezbollah and any other party in possession of light weapons to hand them over to the state, citing the recent example set by former Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt.

“Jumblatt announced that his party had surrendered its weapons weeks ago. This is the model to follow,” he told Asharq al-Awsat.

MP Waddah Al-Sadek, of the Change Coalition, said he had no objection to a phased disarmament process that begins with heavy and medium weapons, followed by light arms. He dismissed fears of civil war, saying only one side is armed.

“Armed conflict requires two sides. The army will not engage in internal fighting,” he said. “This talk of civil war is just fear-mongering unless Hezbollah resorts again to something like the May 7 scenario to avoid disarming.”

Al-Sadek stressed that Lebanon’s response to the US proposal - reportedly outlining phased disarmament - will be critical. “Does anyone really have an alternative to engaging with this proposal?” he asked.

Deputy head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Naji Hayek, said all weapons must be handed over, rejecting the idea that civilians or political groups should be allowed to keep light arms for self-defense.

“This theory no longer holds,” Hayek told Asharq al-Awsat, adding that training camps used to militarize society should be shut down. “Light and medium weapons are not only with Hezbollah - they exist with other parties that have military structures, and these too must be dismantled.”

Political analyst Qassem Qassir, who is close to Hezbollah’s thinking, said there is no internal consensus, nor any agreement with Hezbollah, to give up its heavy and medium arms while retaining light weapons.

“The party insists the issue is still the Israeli occupation and ongoing aggression,” he said. “For Hezbollah, no discussion on disarmament is possible until those threats end.”

Qassir warned that if a political solution to the weapons issue is not reached, “we will inevitably face military risks and internal conflict.”

Jumblatt announced in late June that his party had handed over its remaining weapons, including light and medium arms that were gradually accumulated after the May 7 clashes in 2008 during a period of heightened tension with Hezbollah.

He said the weapons had been centrally stored and fully turned over to the Lebanese state.