Could Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump in November’s Presidential Race?

She worries Republican donors, has name recognition, and Democratic Party heavyweights are beginning to line up behind her.

Vice President Kamala Harris would be President Joe Biden's natural successor if he bowed to growing pressure and stepped aside as the Democratic candidate in the 2024 election, top Democrats say.

Now party donors, activists and officials are asking: Does she have a better chance than Biden of beating Donald Trump? Biden is staying in the race, he has said repeatedly.

Harris, 59, a former US senator and California attorney general, would be the first woman to become president of the United States if she were the party's nominee and prevailed in the Nov. 5 election. She is the first African American and Asian person to serve as vice president.

Her three-and-a-half-year White House tenure has been characterized by a lackluster start, staff turnover, and early policy portfolios including migration from Central America that did not produce major successes.

As recently as last year, many inside the White House and the Biden campaign team privately worried Harris was a liability for the campaign. The situation has changed significantly since then, Democratic officials have said, as she stepped forward on abortion rights and courted young voters.

SOME POLLS FAVOR HARRIS

Recent polls suggest Harris could do better than Biden against Trump, the Republican candidate, although she would face a tight contest.

A CNN poll released on July 2 found voters favor Trump over Biden by six percentage points, 49% to 43%. Harris also trailed Trump, 47% to 45%, within the margin of error.

It also found independents back Harris 43%-40% over Trump, and moderate voters of both parties prefer her 51-39%.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll after last week's televised debate between Trump and a faltering Biden found Harris and Trump were nearly tied, with 42% supporting her and 43% backing him.

Only former first lady Michelle Obama, who has never expressed any interest in getting into the race, polled higher among possible alternatives to Biden.

Internal polling shared by the Biden campaign after the debate shows Harris with the same odds as Biden of beating Trump, with 45% of voters saying they would vote for her versus 48% for Trump.

Influential Democrats including US Representative Jim Clyburn, the man who was key to Biden's 2020 win; Rep. Gregory Meeks, a New York congressman and senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus and Summer Lee, a House Democrat from Pennsylvania have signaled Harris would be the best option to lead the ticket if Biden chooses to step aside.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also privately signaled the same to lawmakers, a Congressional aide said.

Harris is taken so seriously, two Republican donors told Reuters they would prefer for Trump to face Biden than her.

"I would prefer Biden to stay in place" rather than be replaced by Harris, said Pauline Lee, a fundraiser for Trump in Nevada after the June 27 debate, who said she thought Biden had proved himself to be "incompetent."

And some on Wall Street, an important Democratic fundraising center, are starting to indicate a preference.

"Biden is already behind Trump, and is unlikely to be able to overcome that gap given where his campaign is currently. Having VP Harris likely improves Democrats' odds of taking the White House," said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, a financial services company, after the debate. "There's potentially more upside for her chances than Biden's at this point."

A majority of Americans see Harris in a negative light, as they do both men running for president.

Polling outlet Five Thirty Eight said 37.1% of voters approve of Harris and 49.6% disapprove. Those numbers compare to 36.9% and 57.1% for Biden, and 38.6% and 53.6% for Trump.

WOMEN, BLACK VOTERS, GAZA

Since the Supreme Court repealed women's constitutional right to abortion in 2022, Harris has become the Biden administration's foremost voice on reproductive rights, an issue Democrats are betting on to help them win the 2024 election.

Some Democrats believe Harris could energize Democratic-leaning groups whose enthusiasm for Biden has faded, including Black voters, young voters and those who do not approve of Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

"She would energize the Black, brown, and Asian Pacific members of our coalition...she would immediately pull the dispirited youth of our country back into the fold," said Tim Ryan, a former Democratic Congressman from Ohio, in a recent op-ed.

Democratic and Republican suburban women may also be more comfortable with her then Trump or Biden, he said.

As vice president, Harris's public Israel strategy is identical to Biden's, although she was the first senior leader of the US government to call for a ceasefire in March.

"Simply swapping out the candidate does not address the central concern" of the movement, said Abbas Alawieh, a member of the national "Uncommitted" movement that withheld votes for Biden in the primary based on his support of Israel.

If Biden were to step aside, there could be a competition between other Democrats to become the nominee.

If the party were then to choose another candidate over Harris, some Democrats say it could lose the support of many Black voters who were critical to Biden's election win in 2020.

"There is no alternative besides Kamala Harris," said Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of Black voter outreach group BlackPAC.

"If the Democratic Party thinks that they have problems now with their base being confused... Jump over the Black woman, the vice president, and I don't think the Democratic Party actually recovers."

TOO LEFTY?

However, Harris may struggle to reel in moderate Democrats and the independent voters who like Biden's centrist policies, some Democratic donors said. Both parties seek independents to help pull them over the finishing line in presidential elections.

"Her greatest weakness is that her public brand has been associated with the far left wing of the Democratic Party ... and the left wing of the Democratic party cannot win a national election," said Dmitri Mehlhorn, a fundraiser and adviser to LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman. "That is the challenge that she will have to overcome if she is the nominee."

Harris would take over money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit campaign infrastructure, a critical advantage with just four months before election day on Nov. 5.

But any Democratic campaign still needs to raise hundreds of millions of dollars more before November to be successful, strategists say. And there, Harris could be a liability.

"I can tell you we have a really tough time raising money for her" said a source at the Democratic National Committee.

As a presidential candidate ahead of the 2020 election, Harris lagged Biden in raising money. She dropped out of the race in December 2019, the same month her campaign reported $39.3 million in total contributions. Biden's campaign reported $60.9 million in the same period.

However, Biden's campaign raised a record $48 million in the 24 hours after he named Harris as his running mate in 2020.

Harris's prosecutorial background could shine in a head-to-head debate against Trump, some Democrats said.

"She is incredibly focused and forceful and smart, and if she prosecutes the case against the criminality of Donald Trump, she will rip him apart," said Mehlhorn.

Republican attacks on Harris are ramping up as she has been floated as a possible Biden replacement. Conservative talking heads are re-circulating criticism leveled at her during the 2020 race, including from some Democrats, that Harris laughs too much, that she is untested, and unqualified.

Kelly Dittmar, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said the attacks are part of a long history of objectifying and denigrating women of color in politics.

"Unfortunately, the reliance on both racist and sexist attacks and tropes against women running for office is historically common and persists to this day," said Dittmar.

The war in Gaza was always personal for many Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.

Many live in camps set up after 1948, when their parents or grandparents fled their homes in land that became Israel, and they have followed a year's worth of news of destruction and displacement in Gaza with dismay.

While Israeli air strikes in Lebanon have killed a few figures from Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups, the camps that house many of the country's approximately 200,000 refugees felt relatively safe for the general population.

That has changed.

Tens of thousands of refugees have fled as Israel has launched an offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah amid an ongoing escalation in the war in the Middle East. For many, it feels as if they are living the horrors they witnessed on their screens.

Terror on a small screen becomes personal reality Manal Sharari, from the Rashidiyeh refugee camp near the southern coastal city of Tyre, used to try to shield her three young daughters from images of children wounded and killed in the war in Gaza even as she followed the news "minute by minute."

In recent weeks, she couldn't shield them from the sounds of bombs dropping nearby.

"They were afraid and would get anxious every time they heard the sound of a strike," Sharari said.

Four days ago, the Israeli military issued a warning to residents of the camp to evacuate as it launched a ground incursion into southern Lebanon — similar to the series of evacuation orders that have sent residents of Gaza fleeing back and forth across the enclave for months.

Sharari and her family also fled. They are now staying in a vocational training center-turned-displacement shelter run by the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, or UNRWA, in the town of Sebline, 55 km (34 mi) to the north. Some 1,400 people are staying there.

Mariam Moussa, from the Burj Shamali camp, also near Tyre, fled with her extended family about a week earlier when strikes began falling on the outskirts of the camp.

Before that, she said, "we would see the scenes in Gaza and what was happening there, the destruction, the children and families. And in the end, we had to flee our houses, same as them."

The world is bracing for more refugees

Israeli officials have said the ground offensive in Lebanon and the week of heavy bombardment that preceded it aim to push Hezbollah back from the border and allow residents of northern Israel to return to their homes.

The Lebanese armed group began launching rockets into Israel in support of its ally, Hamas, one day after the Oct. 7 Hamas-led incursion into southern Israel and ensuing Israeli offensive in Gaza.

Israel responded with airstrikes and shelling, and the two sides were quickly locked into a monthslong, low-level conflict that has escalated sharply in recent weeks.

Lebanese officials say that more than 1 million people have been displaced. Palestinian refugees are a relatively small but growing proportion. At least three camps — Ein el Hilweh, el Buss and Beddawi — have been directly hit by airstrikes, while others have received evacuation warnings or have seen strikes nearby.

Dorothee Klaus, UNRWA’s director in Lebanon, said around 20,000 Palestinian refugees have been displaced from camps in the south.

UNRWA was hosting around 4,300 people — including Lebanese citizens and Syrian refugees as well as Palestinians — in 12 shelters as of Thursday, Klaus said, "and this is a number that is now steadily going to increase."

The agency is preparing to open three more shelters if needed, Klaus said.

"We have been preparing for this emergency for weeks and months," she said.

Refugees are desperate and making do

Outside of the center in Sebline, where he is staying, Lebanese citizen Abbas Ferdoun has set up a makeshift convenience store out of the back of a van. He had to leave his own store outside of the Burj Shemali camp behind and flee two weeks ago, eventually ending up at the shelter.

"Lebanese, Syrians, Palestinians, we’re all in the same situation," Ferdoun said.

In Gaza, UN centers housing displaced people have themselves been targeted by strikes, with Israeli officials claiming that the centers were being used by fighters. Some worry that pattern could play out again in Lebanon.

Hicham Kayed, deputy general coordinator with Al-Jana, the local NGO administering the shelter in Sebline, said he felt the international "response to the destruction of these facilities in Gaza was weak, to be honest," so "fear is present" that they might be similarly targeted in Lebanon.

Sharari said she feels safe for now, but she remains anxious about her father and others who stayed behind in the camp despite the warnings — and about whether she will have a home to return to.

She still follows the news obsessively but now, she said, "I’m following what’s happening in Gaza and what’s happening in Lebanon."

Could Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump in November’s Presidential Race?