Experts: Spy Network within Hezbollah Has Helped Israel Assassinate Top Members

This picture released on Wednesday, July 31, 2024 by Hezbollah Military Media shows Fouad Shukur a Hezbollah top commander who was killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit a building on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon. (Hezbollah Military Media vía AP)
This picture released on Wednesday, July 31, 2024 by Hezbollah Military Media shows Fouad Shukur a Hezbollah top commander who was killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit a building on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon. (Hezbollah Military Media vía AP)
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Experts: Spy Network within Hezbollah Has Helped Israel Assassinate Top Members

This picture released on Wednesday, July 31, 2024 by Hezbollah Military Media shows Fouad Shukur a Hezbollah top commander who was killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit a building on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon. (Hezbollah Military Media vía AP)
This picture released on Wednesday, July 31, 2024 by Hezbollah Military Media shows Fouad Shukur a Hezbollah top commander who was killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit a building on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon. (Hezbollah Military Media vía AP)

Several questions have been raised about Israel's ability to assassinate top Hezbollah operatives. The latest was the assassination on Tuesday of top commander Fouad Shukur in the party’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Many people have wondered how Israel has managed to pinpoint Shukur’s exact location at a time when Hezbollah commanders should be exercising extreme caution after Israel vowed to avenge the killing of 12 youths in an attack on Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend. Hezbollah has denied its involvement in the strike.

Wealth of information

Founder and CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) Riad Kahwaji told Asharq Al-Awsat that several advanced technologies are used in spy operations, such as monitoring mobile phones, face recognition cameras, drones and satellites.

However, this technology is useless to the Israelis without information about members of Hezbollah, such where they live, their telephone number and how they actually look like, he explained.

Informants and spies are on the ground to help in these assassinations, he stressed.

“Assuming that Hezbollah leaders are not using mobile phones, the only way to know that Shukur was in the targeted building was if someone had followed him and informed the Israelis of his location,” he went on to say.

There is no doubt that Israel has greatly infiltrated Hezbollah and knows its security measures, allowing it to have committed this number of assassinations of senior figures, as well as members who are not known to the public, but only to the party, Kahwaji said.

Network of agents

Retired general George Nader agrees with Kahwaji that Hezbollah has been infiltrated by a complex network of spies.

Without this network, how could Israeli drones have possibly targeted a Hezbollah member as soon as he crossed a certain location? he wondered in remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat.

No regular person could possibly know the movement of these commanders and their locations. These networks of agents are inside the party in Lebanon, as well as in Syria and Iran, he stated.

Lax measures

Head of the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies retired Brigadier General Dr. Hisham Jaber noted that there are a number of factors that have led to the success of Israeli assassinations.

Hezbollah has been breached and its agents have infiltrated the party, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Israelis also have data on all the Lebanese people, including members of the resistance [Hezbollah] and its leaders. It boasts advanced technology, satellites and the support of American and European intelligence.

Lax security measures by some members of Hezbollah are also another factor that have led to assassinations, he remarked.

Given the tensions in wake of the Majdal Shams attack, a senior member such as Shukur should not have been at his home or at a place he often frequents, he explained.

Notable assassinations

Israel has succeeded since November in carrying out a number of assassinations against Hezbollah.

In November, it assassinated the son of Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad and four others, who are members of the al-Radwan unit. They were killed in a drone strike that targeted a house they were in.

On January 2, Israel assassinated leading Hamas member Saleh al-Arouri in a strike in the heart of Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs. It fired rockets at an apartment where he was meeting with Qassam Brigades field commanders.

Days later, on January 8, Israel succeeded in killing Radwan unit commander Wissam Taweel while he was returning home to a southern Lebanon village. It killed prominent members Taleb Abdullah in June and Mohammed Nasser in July.



Israeli Strike on Beirut Shatters Diplomatic Understandings, Sources Say

Armed men keep watch atop a building during the funeral procession of late senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, killed in an Israeli strike, in Beirut, Lebanon, 01 August 2024. (EPA)
Armed men keep watch atop a building during the funeral procession of late senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, killed in an Israeli strike, in Beirut, Lebanon, 01 August 2024. (EPA)
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Israeli Strike on Beirut Shatters Diplomatic Understandings, Sources Say

Armed men keep watch atop a building during the funeral procession of late senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, killed in an Israeli strike, in Beirut, Lebanon, 01 August 2024. (EPA)
Armed men keep watch atop a building during the funeral procession of late senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, killed in an Israeli strike, in Beirut, Lebanon, 01 August 2024. (EPA)

Lebanon's Hezbollah did not clear its sensitive sites or evacuate top officials in Beirut's suburbs before this week's attack that killed a top commander because it thought US-led diplomacy would keep Israel from striking the area, security sources close to the group and diplomats said.

Hezbollah's impression was that Israel would not hit the southern suburbs, or Dahiyeh, a heartland of support for the Shiite group, as it believed Israeli forces would adhere to unofficial red lines both sides have generally observed in the conflict that has escalated during the Gaza War, they said.

This assessment was relayed to Reuters by eight diplomats with knowledge of recent mediation efforts led by Washington and including France and the United Nations, as well as three security sources close to Hezbollah. They all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the topic.

That understanding was shattered on Tuesday when an Israeli strike on Beirut's Dahiyeh killed Hezbollah's top military commander, an Iranian military adviser and five civilians. Lebanese officials and Hezbollah now question whether diplomatic assurances had been relayed to the group accurately.

"We were not expecting them to hit Beirut and they hit Beirut," Lebanon's caretaker foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib told Reuters.

Coupled with the killing in Tehran hours later of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Palestinian armed group Hamas, it has risked sending the entire region into a violent tailspin.

Tensions began spiraling after a deadly strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27 which Israel blamed on Hezbollah, vowing retaliation. The group denied any involvement.

Diplomats rushed to contain the fallout by urging Israel not to strike Dahiyeh as part of its response, with US envoy Amos Hochstein specifically passing on those messages, several diplomats and a Lebanese official with direct knowledge of mediation efforts told Reuters.

A Hezbollah official said mediators had informed them of such efforts. The Lebanese official and three diplomats involved in the messaging said Israel had not made any commitments.

'DIPLOMACY HAS FAILED'

Still, Hezbollah's posture signaled its comfort: in the days leading up to the strike, top officials from the group were seen moving around Dahiyeh.

Hezbollah had cleared out some of its key sites in south and east Lebanon in anticipation of possible strikes, but did not take similar measures in Beirut, two security sources told Reuters. Hezbollah figures living near the targeted building were rushed out in a panic after it was hit, the sources said.

A regional diplomat said that meant Israel had no major Hezbollah targets to hit in south or east Lebanon. Two European diplomats said Hezbollah had not taken protective measures in Beirut and "were not cautious".

Several of the diplomats, as well as a Western envoy, said they had understood Dahiyeh would be spared. "There was a clear message sent" that Israel would spare big cities including Beirut, a diplomat said.

Instead, they said, Israel shunned efforts to constrain its response. "Israelis do not listen to a word that we tell them. They are following their plan and don't listen to us," one of the European diplomats said.

The Western envoy and an Iranian official said Israel had "crossed red lines" by striking Dahiyeh. "Diplomacy has failed," the envoy told Reuters, saying the ability of countries, even the United States, to influence Israel was limited.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in a speech on Thursday marking the funeral of the slain commander Fuad Shukr, said Israel "does not know to what extent it has crossed the red lines" and that unnamed countries had asked the group not to respond to the strike - a request he rejected.

MISCALCULATION

Already, international efforts to rein in Israel's military blitz against the Gaza Strip - a response to Hamas' cross-border attack into Israel on Oct. 7 - have had limited success.

The United States has urged Israel to unblock aid deliveries into Gaza, avoid civilian casualties and refrain from launching a large-scale military offensive in Rafah, but its diplomatic efforts have yielded few results.

"The Israelis feel they are beset from all angles, politically, militarily, and it is a bit of a risky situation," a Western diplomat told Reuters.

As a result, Israel had shifted the war's rules of engagement, carrying out more audacious strikes against its Iranian, Lebanese and Palestinian foes, diplomats and analysts in the region said.

Hezbollah had "misread" Israel's mindset and thought it had done enough to deter Israel from bold strikes in Lebanon, several diplomats working on the issue and the Lebanese official said.

"Hamas, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have all miscalculated since Oct. 7 and mis-assessed each other," the Western envoy said.