Sinwar’s Peace… and the Region’s Caricatures

If I were a caricaturist, I would draw “Sinwar's cigarettes” being thrown down, in a devastated city, to “an angry crowd” discussing the “retaliation to the retaliation after the retaliation,” as the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier passes by the coast and a hand rises from the ground waving a white flag with Yahya Sinwar pointing a weapon printed over it.
This is the scene at the time of writing, from Iran to Gaza, from Syria to Lebanon to the Mediterranean. This is not a jibe, but a reflection of a reality, which only a caricature can capture.
Tehran and Hezbollah have flooded the media, as well as social media, with propaganda about “the retaliation to the retaliation after the retaliation,” as well as its search for the “honor” it lost because of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, as Hassan Nasrallah said in his first speech, before contradicting himself in a speech he gave the next day that “eased up” the demands on Iran!
Yahya Sinwar, who has now become Hamas, in all of its purported spectrums, made his first decision as the movement's leader. He is seeking a ceasefire under the previous terms, and he is not prepared to engage in another round of negotiations. That is why I mentioned a white flag with a weapon drawn on it!
Sinwar has either forgotten or intentionally overlooked the fact that the scene has changed drastically since Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the heart of Tehran, under the watchful eyes of the IRGC, as Iran undergoes a “delicate” transitional phase following the inauguration of its new president and amid its preparations for a new Supreme Leader.
And it doesn’t end there. It seems that Sinwar is also overlooking the fact that, for the reasons stated above, Netanyahu is now calling the shots, and he will continue to do so, at least until Americans head to the polls on November 5th.
Regardless of what we think of Netanyahu- you can call him a criminal, a killer, a belligerent man, or an enemy of peace- the reality on the ground has changed. Israel is now dropping leaflets that contain cigarettes and inciting people against Sinwar in Khan Younis and its surroundings.
Some might say this is a propaganda tactic, and it is. However, it also highlights the gravity of the situation in Gaza, where the price of a single cigarette has risen to twenty dollars, to say nothing about other basic needs.
Therefore, I wouldn’t be exaggerating if I said that everything mentioned above can only be called a caricature. However, the question is: Is it too late to find solutions? Certainly not, but solutions have become more difficult following the change of leadership in Hamas, which can no longer play the game of doves and hawks after Sinwar was put in charge.
Today, intra-Palestinian reconciliation has become more difficult. Who will deal with Sinwar? Who can guarantee that Israel won’t assassinate him now, or immediately after a ceasefire is reached? Sinwar won’t be left alone after Haniyeh was assassinated.
Gaza has been destroyed, and US influence has diminished after the president became a guest spending the final days of political life in the White House. Sinwar delayed negotiations for too long, weakening his position and limiting his room for maneuver.
What we need today is not more leaps into the unknown. We need to understand the reality of the situation, and to weigh gains and losses, not the number of likes and reposts on X (formerly known as Twitter). We need to understand and consider the scale of the destruction, the lives lost, and the maps that have changed.