On October 7, 2023, Yehya al-Sinwar achieved half of his old dream. He dealt Israel an unprecedented blow to force it to release tens of thousands of Palestinian prisoners. The world was shocked by the extent of the surprise.
Sinwar managed to reach that day due to several factors. Among them was Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani fulfilling the agreement that his slain predecessor, Qassem Soleimani, had struck in secret with the Hamas movement. The agreement called for providing finances, smuggling arms and improving the network of Gaza tunnels so that they could accommodate the manufacture of weapons because the enclave was going to remain under Israeli siege.
Sinwar dispatched officers from Hamas’ Qassam Brigades to Beirut and Tehran where they underwent arduous training without being given a scenario where they would implement this training. The officers then trained forces in the Gaza tunnels amid a campaign aimed at deceiving Israel into believing that Hamas was content with controlling Gaza.
Sinwar then moved from planning to execution. He kept the date of execution secret from everyone except for five people: his brother Mohammed, Qassam leader Mohammed al-Deif, al-Deif's deputy Marwan Issa, Rouhi Mushtaha and Ayman Naufal. They were all eventually killed by Israel except for Sinwar and his brother.
Ten hours before the time of execution, the units that would be tasked with the attack were informed of their mission to make sure that news of the plans would not be leaked.
The mission was aimed at capturing as many Israeli hostages as possible so that Hamas would be able to approach Israel from a position of strength. The attackers were surprised with the collapse of Israeli defenses, so they expanded their targets and more fighters joined the attack. “Some practices were committed that Israel would later exploit and exaggerate,” said sources close to Hamas.
The Israeli collapse was the second surprise. The first was that the operation was even planned in the first place without being detected.
It was not surprising that Israel would retaliate with strikes and barbarism, but the prevailing impression was that Israel would not risk sending its soldiers to the tunnels where it would incur human losses that it had never experienced in previous lightening wars. Israel’s behavior here was the third surprise.
The impression was that the security agencies’ failure in protecting the settlements would lead to the collapse of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which was already under pressure from corruption cases and large street protests.
Another surprise was how Netanyahu succeeded in turning the war on Gaza into an existential one. He exerted unprecedented pressure on the military and security institutions to launch a relentless war regardless of human and economic losses. He took advantage of the wide western sympathy with Israel in wake of the attacks and the United States’ firm commitment to the security of the Jewish state.
In wake of the October 7 attack, Hezbollah announced what it described as a “support front”, carrying out attacks against Israel from southern Lebanon that for nearly a year remained within the so-called “rules of engagement.”
Netanyahu, meanwhile, pretended to respect the rules of the game. He sent delegations to negotiate the release of hostages and maneuvered for as long as he could. He wanted to prolong the war while setting his sights on the American presidential election. He wanted to destroy Gaza and deal a fatal blow to Hamas’ military capabilities before turning his attention to the greater and more dangerous front with Lebanon.
From Sinwar’s attack, the “support front” and the drones fired by the Iraqi factions and rockets launched by the Houthis in Yemen, Netanyahu managed to read Iran’s war on Israel. He decided to change the rules of the game and deprive Iran of the ability to continue to run the war by proxy that it has been waging for decades. He decided to summon it to a direct confrontation. He didn’t hesitate in killing Revolutionary Guards generals meeting in the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Netanyahu wounded Iran’s image and insulted it, so Tehran fired rockets at Israel. The confrontation became clearer and more dangerous. Netanyahu went even further in challenging Iran by assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran itself. He changed the battle from confronting the proxies to confronting the power that is controlling them.
Last month, as the US entered its presidential coma, Netanyahu pushed the game of surprises to its limit. He blew up the communication devices used by Hezbollah. It was a painful blow that revealed the extent to which the party is breached. The attack was followed by ten days of massive surprises that culminated in the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
And so, Israel moved to acting on the threats of its Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in replicating the images in Gaza in Beirut and Lebanon. Before Hezbollah could recover from the Nasrallah shock, it was dealt another blow when his potential heir Hashem Safieddine was targeted in an Israeli attack. Once again, Iran fired its rockets at Israel and now the region lives in tense anticipation of the Israeli response, which will likely target Iranian facilities.
On the Lebanese front, Israel achieved unprecedented surprises that it couldn’t even make in Gaza. The war on Lebanon is much more dangerous. Israel is acting as though the war with Hezbollah is a decisive inevitable chapter in the war against Iran.
Sinwar never informed anyone of the date of the October 7 attack. He feared that the date would be leaked. However, the allied forces in the Resistance Axis were aware that something was being planned, which is why the “support front” was ready for action on the very next day.
The year of surprises was costly and very dangerous. The Gaza massacre is unprecedented. The international community’s ineffectiveness is glaring. America is weak in influencing Israel. Visits by its Secretary of State Antony Blinken no longer raise hope. Russia is celebrating the reclaiming of Ukrainian villages and French President Emmanual Macron stands by as an idle commentator.
Winter has arrived. Who will protect the displaced in Gaza from the rain and the misery of living among the rubble? Who will protect the displaced in Lebanon from the harsh winter? Talk of a ceasefire in Gaza is pointless. The losses by all parties in the war are staggering which is why they prefer for the horrors to continue rather than pay the price for ending them. A crazy region awaits more blood, blows and surprises.
