“This is the most dangerous of regional wars. Its outcomes will shape roles, locations, maps and capitals. Benjamin Netanyahu took advantage of Yahya Sinwar’s ‘flood’ to launch a complete coup against the Iranian revolt that took place decades ago. Netanyahu enjoys American support and western understanding to clip Iran and its proxies’ wings. It is a war that only America alone can stop at the time it sees fit and after the fighters grow tired.” The journalist grew anxious when he heard such remarks from a man who is concerned with the developments and their consequences.
It is evident that the Middle East is holding its breath. It is being promised with harsher days. The scattered storms may come together to form a hurricane. The region has never seen such a war. The war is spilling over borders, while the international community stands helpless. The people of the region are awaiting the Israeli strike against Iran. Tehran says it will have no choice but to retaliate. The exchange of retaliatory strikes threatens to fan the flames.
The scene is new and very dangerous. The current Israel does not resemble the one that existed before the October 7, 2023 Al-Aqsa Flood Operation. Netanyahu succeeded in turning the conflict into an existential war that Israel has no problem paying for in human life and financially.
Iran today does not resemble the Iran that existed before the “Flood”. Netanyahu lured it out of the “war of proxies” to become directly embroiled in a confrontation in the Middle East. It is a war that the United States cannot stay out of. This is something that Iran has long sought to avoid. Tehran was hoping that it would continue to be able to weave the carpet of its major coup in the region without slipping into a dangerous direct confrontation with the US.
Before the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, Sinwar informed Hezbollah and Iran through an envoy that “something big was about to happen.” He requested the greatest support from them for his operation. He dreamed that the operation would be the beginning of the “major blow” that he had whispered about for years, and which called for showering Israel with rockets and drones that would be fired from several countries, including Iran.
Sinwar received a pledge that he would receive the “greatest possible support, but he did not receive a commitment to deal the major strike.” He feared that Israel would sense that something was brewing and that it would deal a preemptive strike. He launched the “flood” perhaps believing that his allies would join him, despite their hesitation. Ultimately, Iran did not join him directly and Hezbollah chose to open the “support front” on October 8, 2023.
In the first hours of the operation, Israel appeared weak and fragile. The military institution decided to avenge the shortcomings and Netanyahu decided to lay down a complete Nakba in Gaza. It wasn’t enough to punish Hamas, but he also laid down the harshest punishment to its supporters, meaning the civilians. And, at first, he pretended to accept dealing with a low-level confrontation with Hezbollah according to the “rules of engagement.”
Meanwhile, a major change took place in the buildup to shifting the war to Lebanon and the US presidential elections: a direct confrontation with Iran became possible. Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon show that he is trying to keep Iran away from his borders. Israel dealt Hamas and Hezbollah severe blows when it assassinated Hassan Nasrallah and only recently and by chance, Sinwar.
Netanyahu has spoken about returning the hostages held by Hamas. He has also spoken about returning the residents of the north back home after they were forced to flee Hezbollah’s rockets and drones. His sense of Israel’s military superiority made him aim higher. He declared that he wanted to create radical change in the security situation surrounding Israel now and for generations to come. To achieve that, he has demanded that the “resistance” fronts in Gaza and Lebanon be eliminated through creating a buffer zone and imposing strict restrictions after a ceasefire is reached.
Amid the horrific scenes left behind by the Israeli military machine begin to emerge the signs of a violent coup against the coup that Iran had carried out in the region and made it the decision-maker in Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Sanaa.
It is a grinding war that will change the shape of the region and balances of power. It won’t be easy for Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei to accept that the end of his term will be coupled with the shrinking of the regional role he had spent decades building. Sinwar had inadvertently put the “Resistance Axis” to a difficult test. Lebanon is struggling with Israeli strikes and the displaced, Syria is trying to distance itself and Iraq is trying to avert an Israeli or American retaliation against its factions.
Back in Vienna in 2008, I had the chance to hold talks with then International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei, who had just met in Tehran with Khamanei, then President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and parliament Speaker Ali Larijani. I asked ElBaradei to sum up the Iranian position, to which he replied: “We want to be recognized as a major regional power.”
He explained that the Iranians believe that their main dispute lies with America. Ahmedinejad wants to resolve these differences and he dreams of being the engineer of this major deal. He believes that will make him a national hero, especially since 80 to 90 percent of the Iranian people want normal ties with the US. “Ahmedinejad personally told me before I left the atomic agency: ‘I want to hold direct negotiations with America alone; I don’t want Russia and China involved.’”
It is a war of roles, borders and balances. Only the “Great Satan” can intervene to stop the Israeli coup after breaking the arms of the Iranian coup. But what will the terrified maps involved do in wait of the decisive American intervention? What if Iran were to turn to the White House and find a man called Donald Trump there who will remind it of several painful incidents?
