Egypt, Somalia Hold Talks to Boost Cooperation in Horn of Africa

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty with his Somali counterpart Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Riyadh. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty with his Somali counterpart Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Riyadh. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
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Egypt, Somalia Hold Talks to Boost Cooperation in Horn of Africa

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty with his Somali counterpart Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Riyadh. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty with his Somali counterpart Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Riyadh. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)

Egypt and Somalia held new consultations on Monday as part of their high-level coordination that started early this year after Addis Ababa signed a deal with the breakaway Somaliland region, allowing it access to the Red Sea for trade and military purposes.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met with his Somali counterpart Ahmed Moalim Fiqi in Riyadh on the sidelines of the Extraordinary Arab and Islamic Summit.

The meeting came to affirm Egypt’s contribution to the new peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will replace the current African Union mission by January 2025.

It also came two days after Mogadishu excluded Addis Ababa from the mission due to its violations against Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that consultations in Riyadh between the two ministers are a continuation of the process of strengthening Egyptian-Somali cooperation in the Horn of Africa in light of the rising risks both countries currently face due to Ethiopia’s behavior that threatens regional stability.

They noted that such cooperation would be fruitful for the region and could expand to include Eritrea and other countries, something Addis Ababa will consider a threat.

The experts expect Ethiopia either to retract its illegal positions regarding the Renaissance Dam and its deal with the Somaliland region, or cause additional escalation and tension in the region.

Last January, Ethiopia signed an initial agreement with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland to use its Red Sea port.

The MoU grants Ethiopia 20-km access to the Red Sea, specifically in the Berbera port, for a 50-year period.

In return, Ethiopia will recognize Somaliland as a republic, which has not been internationally recognized since it broke away from Somalia in 1991.

The port deal with Somaliland faced opposition from Egypt and other Arab nations.

It also sparked tighter relations between Egypt and Somalia. In August, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a military cooperation agreement in Cairo.

Later that month, Somalia announced the arrival of Egyptian military equipment and personnel in Mogadishu in the fight against the Al Shabab terrorist group.

On Saturday, Somali Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur officially announced that the Ethiopian troops will not be part of the forthcoming AUSSOM. He said Ethiopia was excluded due to its “violations against Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

During his meeting on Monday with the Somali FM, Abdelatty reiterated Egypt’s unwavering stance in supporting Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, rejecting any foreign interference in its internal affairs, according to an Egyptian FM statement released on Tuesday.

He confirmed his country’s participation in the peacekeeping forces in Mogadishu and strengthening cooperation with Eritrea in the region.

The FM expressed Cairo’s commitment to continue coordinating with his Somali counterpart to follow up on the pledge made by the leaders of Egypt and Eritrea in early October to provide comprehensive support to Somalia.

Abdelatty reiterated Egypt’s support for the Somali federal government’s efforts to combat terrorism and uphold the state’s sovereignty over its entire territory.

For his part, Fiqi expressed deep appreciation for Egypt’s unwavering support in helping his country combat terrorism, assert its sovereignty, and uphold its unity and territorial integrity.

Ambassador Salah Halima, Former Assistant Minister for Sudan's affairs in Egypt, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Egyptian assurances are part of both countries’ efforts to strengthen cooperation.

“This growing partnership, that also involves Eritrea, may expand to include other countries and would achieve development and stability in the region,” Halima said. “But Ethiopia, with its hostile actions towards Egypt and Somalia, will be the cause of continued escalation and tension,” he warned.

Sudanese expert on African affairs Abdul Nasser Haj said the current Egyptian-Somali understandings are completely consistent with events happening in the Horn of Africa region, especially Ethiopia’s escalating acts concerning the Renaissance Dam and its port deal with Somaliland.



Rubio Says Immediate US Goal on Sudan is Cessation of Hostilities into New Year

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio whispers in the ear of President Donald Trump during a roundtable about Antifa in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on October 8, 2025. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP) / AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2025
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio whispers in the ear of President Donald Trump during a roundtable about Antifa in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on October 8, 2025. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP) / AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2025
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Rubio Says Immediate US Goal on Sudan is Cessation of Hostilities into New Year

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio whispers in the ear of President Donald Trump during a roundtable about Antifa in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on October 8, 2025. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP) / AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2025
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio whispers in the ear of President Donald Trump during a roundtable about Antifa in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on October 8, 2025. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP) / AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2025

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday said Washington's immediate goal on Sudan is a cessation of hostilities going into the new year that allows humanitarian organizations to deliver assistance.

Rubio, speaking to reporters at a news conference, said that Washington was engaging with the parties involved. "We've had the right and appropriate conversations with ‌all sides of this ‌conflict, because that is their ‌leverage. ⁠Without their support, ‌neither side can continue. So that's why we need to engage, and that's why we've engaged the parties involved in all of this," Rubio said.
"We think that outside actors have the leverage and the influence over the players on the ground to bring about this humanitarian truce, and we are very focused ⁠on it.

I had a conversation on it yesterday. We have spoken to ‌the UAE, we've spoken to Saudi, we've ‍spoken to Egypt," he added.
US ‍President Donald Trump said last week he would intervene ‍to stop the conflict between the army and the RSF, which erupted in April 2023 out of a power struggle and has triggered famine, ethnic killings and mass displacement in Sudan, Reuters said.
Previous efforts led by the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates have failed to bear fruit. The group submitted ⁠a proposal to the two forces in September.
Sudan this month once again topped a watchlist of global humanitarian crises released by the International Rescue Committee aid organization, as warring sides press on with the conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people.
More than 12 million people have already been displaced by the ongoing war in the African nation, where humanitarian workers lack resources to help those ‌fleeing, many of whom have been raped, robbed or bereaved by the violence.


Armed Groups Opposed to Hamas in Gaza Seen with New Weapons

Armed Hamas members are seen in Gaza. (Reuters file)
Armed Hamas members are seen in Gaza. (Reuters file)
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Armed Groups Opposed to Hamas in Gaza Seen with New Weapons

Armed Hamas members are seen in Gaza. (Reuters file)
Armed Hamas members are seen in Gaza. (Reuters file)

Images circulated on social media of armed groups opposed to Hamas in Gaza brandishing new weapons.

The factions have been presenting themselves as replacements to Hamas in ruling the enclave and have been developing new means to oust the movement.

The factions are active in areas in Gaza that are controlled by Israel and have acknowledged working with Israel.

Debate on social media revolved around whether the groups had acquired the new weapons from Israel or if they were seized by Israeli forces from Hamas and handed over to them. Speculation also centered on whether the groups had seized the weapons from Hamas tunnels.

One video on social media showed Ghassan al-Dahini, who took over the Popular Forces after the killing of Yasser Abu Shabab weeks ago, as he brandished a Tandem modern RPG that Hamas had often used in recent years and during the Gaza war.

Dahini was seen with several other gunmen as he inspected a box of new weapons.

Dahini’s group is deployed mainly in Rafah in southern Gaza.

Another video showed members of the so-called “Popular Army”, led by Ashraf al-Mansi, brandishing RPGs. The Popular Army is deployed in Jabaliya and Beit Lahia in northern Gaza.

None of the groups opposed to Hamas have denied that they receive support from Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged in June that his government was backing these factions.

Shawqi Abu Nasira, a former Palestinian security officer and now leader of one of these factions deployed east of Khan Younis, recently told Israeli television that Tel Aviv had supplied his group and others with weapons, funds and food.

He said “great security coordination” was underway between them.


Two Warnings, Arab and Western, ‘Tip the Balance’ in Iraq

Members of the Popular Mobilization Forces during the funeral of comrades killed in a US strike (AFP). 
Members of the Popular Mobilization Forces during the funeral of comrades killed in a US strike (AFP). 
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Two Warnings, Arab and Western, ‘Tip the Balance’ in Iraq

Members of the Popular Mobilization Forces during the funeral of comrades killed in a US strike (AFP). 
Members of the Popular Mobilization Forces during the funeral of comrades killed in a US strike (AFP). 

In an unusual development, informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Iraqi government and influential political actors received two extraordinary warning messages over the past two weeks — one from an Arab country and another from a Western intelligence service — containing what were described as “serious” indications of impending, wide-ranging military strikes inside Iraq.

An Iraqi official confirmed that a “friendly state” had briefed Baghdad on the substance of the threat, prompting Shiite factions to move swiftly toward concessions.

According to the sources, potential targets could have included government institutions linked to Shiite factions and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), powerful financial and military figures, sites and depots for drones and missiles, and training camps.

The two warnings are widely believed to have accelerated a recent wave of political statements by factions calling to “confine weapons to the state,” while simultaneously requesting time and freedom of action, within what they termed a “national framework”, to dismantle their military capabilities. This position remains a point of contention among leaders of the Coordination Framework.

A Message from a “Friendly State”

The threat level first rose with a message from an Arab country that maintains good relations with both Washington and Tehran. The message warned that Baghdad was perilously close to a swift military strike, likened to the targeting of Hamas’ political office in Doha in September 2025.

The message, delivered to Iraqi officials and politicians, stressed that the threat was “extremely serious” and that Israelis were now speaking openly of having received a green light from the United States to act unilaterally in the Iraqi theater.

Iraq has been among the arenas Israel has contemplated striking since the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks. Iraqi politicians told Asharq Al-Awsat in recent months that Washington had restrained Israel from operating in Iraq, while pressing Baghdad to remove the risks posed by weapons outside state control.

A Western diplomat said US officials felt Iraqi leaders did not fully grasp the gravity of the situation and had grown frustrated with what they saw as a weak response.

An Iraqi government official acknowledged receiving multiple warnings about armed groups from friendly states and Western embassies in Baghdad.

“A Massive File”

Days after the Arab message, Iraqi officials received what sources described as a “massive file” from a Western intelligence service. The file included Israeli-prepared lists packed with detailed information on Iraqi armed factions.

The breadth, precision, and depth of the intelligence stunned Iraqi officials. One told Asharq Al-Awsat that the timing of revealing the extent of Israel’s knowledge was critical. The lists reportedly detailed faction leaders, covert operatives within their inner circles, financiers and business figures tied to the groups, and government institutions serving as fronts for factional influence.

The Western service warned that Israel was on the verge of a broad operation now that the factions’ operational and financial capabilities and the deep networks underpinning their military structures had been exposed. After reviewing parts of the file, Shiite politicians reportedly recalled the pager explosions in Lebanon as a cautionary precedent.

“What Now?”

A senior Shiite leader within the Coordination Framework revealed that the two messages “changed the equation,” pushing party leaders to accelerate steps related to factional arms. Many are now grappling with a single question: what to do next? Disagreements persist over the method and the trusted authority to oversee a transitional phase of weapons consolidation.

The leader noted the first phase would involve handing over ballistic missiles and drones and dismantling and surrendering strategic camps north and south of Baghdad. A second phase, he claimed, would include removing faction-affiliated officials from the PMF, pending the US response.

An official in the State of Law Coalition said an agreement to remove heavy weapons had already existed within the Coordination Framework, even before US pressure intensified. Current disputes center on which state body would take custody of the weapons, amid US distrust of security institutions seen as influenced by factions.

Complicating matters, factions fear implementing disarmament amid fraught negotiations to form a new government. Caretaker Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani is seeking a second term after winning the largest bloc within the Coordination Framework, a bid opposed by his rival Nouri al-Maliki, who favors a compromise candidate.

US Pressure

The Western intelligence message coincided with the arrival in Iraq of Senior Defense Official Colonel Stephanie Bagley. US defense funding will hinge on three conditions set out in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act, passed on Dec. 11, 2025.

The law conditions assistance on Iraq’s ability to publicly and verifiably reduce the operational capacity of Iran-aligned armed groups not integrated into the security forces through disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration. It also requires strengthening the Iraqi prime minister’s authority as commander-in-chief and investigating and prosecuting militia members or security personnel operating outside the official chain of command if involved in attacks or destabilizing acts.

Western diplomatic sources said Bagley is expected to seek a clear, enforceable timeline from Iraqi officials. She met twice in one week with Army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir Yarallah in October 2025.

A former Iraqi official noted that Washington has repeatedly pressed Baghdad for a timeline to dismantle militia influence, especially ahead of 2026, when the US-led coalition is set to complete its mission. A US State Department spokesperson reaffirmed that Washington will continue to press for the disarmament of Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty and threaten Iraqis and Americans alike.