Mercenaries of the Libya War: Easily Lured Cannon Fodder that Are Later Discarded

Mercenaries of the Libya War: Easily Lured Cannon Fodder that Are Later Discarded
TT

Mercenaries of the Libya War: Easily Lured Cannon Fodder that Are Later Discarded

Mercenaries of the Libya War: Easily Lured Cannon Fodder that Are Later Discarded

“Do we complete our mission, make some money and return to Syria? Or will we be captured by Haftar’s forces and get killed? What if his forces seize Tripoli, which we came here to defend? What then?”

These are the thoughts that plagued a Syria fighter who took part in the Libyan war (2019-20) as part of a group of mercenaries brought by the former Government of National Accord (GNA) headed by Fayez al-Sarraj.

These groups are backed Türkiye and militias in western Libya and fought the forces of Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar, who had captured the eastern parts of the country and some regions in the South. Haftar also enjoys the support of several tribes in the east and is backed by Russia’s Wagner mercenary group.

Asharq Al-Awsat spoke with “Rami Abou Mohammed”, who hails from Syria’s northern Aleppo countryside, about the journey he started from Türkiye at the beginning of 2020. On board a Libyan Afriqiyah Airways flight, he was flown with hundreds of Syrian mercenaries from Istanbul to Mitiga International Airport in the Libyan capital Tripoli.

At that time, Tripoli had been fighting a nine-month offensive by Haftar’s Wagner-backed forces to seize the capital. Ankara brought in mercenaries from Syrian opposition factions, most notably the Sultan Murad Division that was formed in 2013 with a majority of Syrian Turkmen members.

After 14 months of fighting, Sarraj’s GNA fighters forced the LNA to withdraw from the outskirts of Tripoli.

Amid a rapidly changing international scene and the opening of new war fronts in Africa, alliances and priorities changed and Russia soon formed the so-called Africa Corps as an alternative to the Wagner group with the aim to expand its influence in five African countries, starting with Libya.

With its attention focused on countering western influence in Africa, the mercenaries brought in by both warring parties in Libya were left behind, either in camps, bases or tasked with carrying out special missions for militias in western Libya.

Initially, efforts were made by official military authorities to remove the mercenaries from Libya. The warring parties signed a ceasefire agreement in Geneva in October 2023 that called for their withdrawal, but that never happened. In early February 2021, the United Nations mission in Libya acknowledged that 20,000 foreign fighters were “occupying” several military bases in Libya. No official figures are available over their exact numbers, but it is likely that the number has dropped with the intensity of the conflict.

In this report, Asharq Al-Awsat traced how fighters from a number countries became embroiled in a war that is not their own for a various ideological and financial reasons and how several ended up detained in Libyan military bases, losing whatever power they had when at one point in the conflict they were instrumental in determining the battle.

Rami recalled how - at just 23 years of age - he embarked on a “terrifying” journey from Syria to Libya. He said he was “forced by difficult economic conditions” to fly to Libya despite knowing that he may end up being killed in the fighting. “The situation in Syria is very difficult and death is everywhere,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

From Hawar Kalas to the Abou Salim front

Mercenaries had flooded LNA- and GNA-controlled regions. Mercenaries were seen as a mighty force that local and foreign powers could rely on as they vied for control in Libya. Some of the mercenaries came from security companies and irregular armies.

Rami, who had never joined an armed faction before, recalled the journey from Syria to Libya. He said: “We were brought in from several regions in Syria. They recorded our names and then transported us from the town of Hawar Kalas to Türkiye's Gaziantep airport.” They were then flown to Istanbul on board a military plane and later taken to Mitiga airport on board an Afriqiyah Airways flight.

Sarraj had turned to military assistance from Türkiye during a visit to Ankara on December 26, 2019, as the LNA closed in on Tripoli. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan scrambled to send military experts, fighters and military gear, most notably drones.

“Before being sent to Tripoli, the Turkish forces sent us to camps on the border with Syria where we received training,” said Rami. He believed that the training was provided by the Turkish SADAT Defense company. They were flown to Tripoli upon completing the training.

SADAT Defense “is the first and the only Private Military Company in Türkiye, that internationally provides consultancy, military training and logistics services at the international defense and interior security sector,” reads its website.

It was founded, under the presidency of Brigadier General (Retired) Adnan Tanriverdi, by 23 officers and NCOs retired from various units of Turkish Armed Forces and began its activities by February2012.

It denies that it was still operating in Libya despite acknowledging that it had carried out projects there in 2013. To avoid legal sanctions, it had recently established services companies to act as a front for its activities in Libya. It also recruited on occasion military leaders of armed Syrian factions.

Two UN reports from 2021 and 2023 revealed that SADAT Defense had recruited 5,000 mercenaries in Syria to fight in Tripoli. It also accused Ankara of violating the arms embargo on Libya.

The reports sparked outrage after being published by Turkish journalist Saygi Ozturk in the opposition Sozcu newspaper. SADAT Defense asserted that the report findings were baseless.

Turkish academic Dr. Muhannad Hafizoglu explained to Asharq Al-Awsat how Ankara does not view the Syrians it sent to Libya as mercenaries. Rather, it believes that everyone sent to Libya through Turkish facilitations was either Turkish or had Turkish roots. Everyone sent to fight for Sarraj held the Turkish nationality, he added.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry rejected repeated requests by Asharq Al-Awsat for comment. The pro-Türkiye Syrian National Army also refused to make any statement.

Ahmed Hamade, a defector of the Syrian Army, said that Syrians who headed to Libya worked as translators, not fighters. The Turkish Foreign Ministry refused to comment on the claim.

Hamade added that several Syrians were lured by money to fight for the Wager Group. Moreover, he said that the dispatch of Syrian fighters to Libya or elsewhere was “inspired” by the arrival of Iranian militias, Russian fighters and Wagner members to prop up the regime of President Bashar al-Assad against the revolution. Wagner promptly joined the fight in Libya.

Doubts and fears swirled through Rami’s mind throughout the flight to Mitiga airport. He recalled the warnings of his family, who urged him against embarking on such a journey, but he said he was a bit comforted by being surrounded by hundreds of other Syrians like him. “Whatever happens to them will happen to me,” he added.

He had the opportunity during the flight to get to know the other fighters, estimated at about 200. He learned that some were members of various armed factions, such as the Glory Corps. They were received at Mitiga airport by men in civilian clothing and transported to the Ain Zara area, some 18 kms southeast of Tripoli. Ain Zara witnessed some of the fiercest fighting during the battle between GNA and LNA.

The exchange of mercenaries to and from Libya and Syria never ceased between June 2020 and November 2024, revealed Rami Abdulrahman, Director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Abdulrahman told Asharq Al-Awsat that some 2,000 Syrians remain in Libya. SADAT Defense and Turkish intelligence still fly them to Libya and they also return others back to Syria.

In January, the Observatory said that over 7,000 Syrian mercenaries were in Tripoli, but they have since fled to North Africa or Europe. A former military official said that only the military parties in Libya know the real number of mercenaries that were brought in to fight.

At the beginning of the war in 2019, the fighters were paid around 1,500 dollars, while now they earn 500 dollars. A Turkish soldier, meanwhile, barely earned 150 dollars at the time.

Abu Salim front

Rami, the Syrian fighter, said the newly-recruited Syrians in Libya received instructions from the Libyans. They were also trained by officers from SADAT Defense. They received weapons training and learned about the geography of the region where they will be fighting the “enemy”.

“We received training on the use of weapons and limited combat missions for a week at the Ain Zara camp. We were then taken to the Abou Salim front where we fought Haftar’s forces. Several Syrian factions were there, including the Glory Corps and Al-Mutassim group,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He recalled that several of his fellow fighters were captured or killed at the front. However, he spoke of victory, saying: “We managed to liberate the Yarmuk camp from Haftar’s forces.” Members of the Sultan Murad Division took up camp there.

Unofficial sources said some 500 mercenaries were killed. The GNA’s Volcano of Rage Operation against the LNA waged fierce battles to capture the Yarmuk and al-Hamza positions south of Tripoli. They are now the most significant bases where Syrian mercenaries are deployed.

Chaos in Libya

The security chaos in Libya made it easy for several “armed groups” to enter the country. Some took up base on the southern border and others were called up to fight for one of the warring factions when the “battle for Tripoli” erupted.

Chadian National Salvation Movement (MSNT) leader Omar Al-Mahdi Bashara attested to the chaos of fighters as he was a rebel deployed to the Chadian-Libyan border for 20 years before returning to political life.

This partially explains why Chadian, Sudanese and other African fighters joined the conflict in Libya, he said.

Since the end of the war on Tripoli, little was announced about the fate of the mercenaries. One announcement said 300 Sudanese fighters were deported from Libya.

Amid such secrecy, head of the joint 5+5 joint military committee in the western region Ahmed Abou Shahma accused Libyan politicians of obstructing the withdrawal of the mercenaries. “Each party is clinging on to their mercenaries,” he said.

Claudia Gazzini, the International Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Libya, told Asharq Al-Awsat that it is difficult to tally the number of mercenaries in Libya. It is essential to differentiate between special forces that were paid by the various parties and between foreign forces that are deployed there.

Libyan political analyst Ahmed Abu Argoub told Asharq Al-Awsat that the countries that sent their fighters and mercenaries to Libya are keen on maintaining the political vacuum in the country and feeding divisions. “They have no interest in seeing the rise of a Libyan state,” he explained.

Meanwhile, advisor at the Libyan Tribal Union (LTU) Khaled al-Ghweil threatened civil disobedience followed by military action should the mercenaries fail to peacefully leave the country. “Any mercenary found in the country would be a legitimate target,” he warned.

Bases on the coast

Alongside Ankara, Moscow is another source of mercenaries in Libya. It has used its presence in Libya to extend its influence in Africa through the Africa Corps.

Russian forces in Libya are nothing new, but Moscow has sought to bolster its presence after moving forces and military gear to eastern Libya, said a report by the All Eyes on Wagner group, raising concerns with the US and Europe.

The Polish Institute of International Affairs released a report, “Africa Corps - a New Iteration of Russia's Old Military Presence in Africa”, that examines how Russia’s presence in Libya shifted to focus on the whole of Africa.

It said that Wagner’s operations in Libya were impacted by the death of the group’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and Moscow eventually signed a military agreement with Haftar in September 2023.

The Europeans continue to be worried. Then EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell declared on August 25: “We should be worried about what’s happening in Africa. When I first came to Brussels, the French and Italians were in Libya. They weren’t always in harmony, but they were present. Today, there are no Europeans left in Libya – only Turks and Russians.”

“The bases along Libya’s coast are no longer European; they belong to Türkiye and Russia. This is not the Mediterranean order we envisioned,” he added.

Former ambassador and advisor at ESCWA Ibrahim Mousa Grada said the Wagner mercenary presence in Libya is more complicated than any other foreign armed presence in the country.

Their deployment in Libya is seen as a foothold for Russia in Africa from which it expanded its influence in the continent and which has become part of an open struggle for power between Moscow and Washington.

Grada told Asharq Al-Awsat that Wagner’s presence in Libya is connected to major countries that have intersecting interests, especially in the Mediterranean and Africa. Given Russia’s war on Ukraine and the situation in Sudan, their pullout from Libya will definitely come at a price.

The Global Security Review said on August 18 that Russia has expanded its influence in Libya and Africa. The March 2023 edition of the Africa Defense Forum (adf) magazine, issued by AFRICOM, said that some 2,000 Wagner fighters had settled in central Libya since the ceasefire. They continue to train soldiers deployed in the east and guard oilfields in the southeast.

In November, adf said weapons from Libya were being smuggled to “terrorist groups” in Nigeria. It claimed that several of these weapons were made in Russia and that they were brought to Libya by the Wagner group.

The majority of the Wagner fighters are deployed at “sovereign” locations under the control of the LNA. They are tasked with guarding oilfields and ports in the central region known as the “oil crescent”.

Witnesses told Asharq Al-Awsat that Wagner fighters have been noticably active in the vicinity of Sirte city, some 450 kms from Tripoli. They noted their movement between the Ghardabiya Airbase, its naval port and the Al-Jufra Airbase. Members of the group were also spotted at the Brak base, 700 kms south of Tripoli.

Russia's ambassador to Libya Haider Aganin dismissed concerns over the Wagner group. In televised remarks on May 13, he accused western countries of stoking suspicions against the group.

Prisons and drugs

Another Syrian fighter brought in from Aleppo told Asharq Al-Awsat about his “deadly” experience in Libya.

“As soon as we arrived in Tripoli, we were turned over to a military leader who took us to the Sog Al-Khamis camp. No one was allowed to speak out against him or he would be detained,” said “Monzer Abou Khaled”.

Abou Khaled is still in Tripoli and has not been able to return to Syria. “Thousands of fighters are in the Kamis camp,” he added. They don’t allow us to stray far from the camp. We are in a prison. Some fighters have been here for two and three years. They can’t return to Syria and they aren’t receiving their salaries. They are given little food and drink, while the commanders enjoy plenty.”

“They have taken most of our salaries. Before heading to Libya, we reached an agreement to be paid 1,800 dollars a month, but they have only given us 500 dollars,” he revealed.

Asharq Al-Awsat learned that during that time, members of the Sultan Murad faction had arrested some 20 fighters in the Yarmuk camp for “refusing to hand over half of their financial earnings.”

Rami said the fighters were exploited and tempted by money. He spoke of drug smuggling and how their salaries were cut. “The leaders of the factions are profiting off of the fighters. They are trading weapons and smuggling drugs,” he stated.

He explained that the leaders ply the fighters with drugs so that they can be easily manipulated. They also smuggle drugs in Tripoli.

He described 2024 as the worst year for Syrian fighters because thousands of them have been prevented from leaving the city.

Return to Aleppo countryside

Rami left Tripoli after two years of fighting in southern Tripoli and time spent in Ain Zara. He returned to the Aleppo countryside, leaving behind colleagues who are still held in camps in western Libya.

He may have “survived death”, but painful memories still haunt him. “Several of our colleagues were killed in fighting. Others were lost at sea after they fled the camps and sought to escape to Europe,” he revealed.

When the war ended, several thousand mercenaries in Tripoli complained about not being paid or about salary cuts, prompting them to protest in the streets as seen in videos circulated on social media.

Observatory Director Abdulrahman told Asharq Al-Awsat that a “large number” of the mercenaries fled their camps in Tripoli. He did not specify the exact number, but said they escaped to various Libyan regions to seek work and other headed to Europe.

In September 2023, the Observatory said some 3,000 Syrian mercenaries had fled military bases in Libya and headed to Europe.

Expulsion

As alliances and balances changed in the past four years, so did the Libyans’ view of the mercenaries. They are now seen as pariahs and are unwanted in the country.

The hatred against them was on full display when dozens of Libyans protested in front of the military academy in Tripoli in August 2023 to demand the expulsion of the mercenaries who were present in the facility. The protesters managed to storm the academy and set vehicles on fire and chanted slogans demanding the expulsion of the fighters.

Al-Saady Radwan told Asharq Al-Awsat: “We had previously given them a deadline to leave Libya and they did not. Either the military agencies take action or we will take them by surprise and expel them.”

He also accused the Government of National Unity, headed by Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, of “giving them funds from the state treasury.”

The Russian mercenaries are viewed with the same hatred.

UN Security Council President Pedro Comissário Afonso had recently urged the withdrawal of all foreign forces, fighters and mercenaries from Libya, saying it has become a pressing need.

From Libya to Togo

Libya is not the only place the Syrian mercenaries were recruited to fight. The conflicts across Africa have turned Libya into a “crossing” point for new mercenaries.

A Syrian, who spoke on condition of anonymity, revealed that the Sultan Murad Division had recruited his 17-year-old brother to head to Libya over the summer and from there, he was taken to Togo to fight.

“He spoke to us from a telephone line that appeared to be from Togo. We don’t really know if he is actually there. We don’t know what to do,” the Syrian told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Sudanese on the front

The war may be over, but the tragedies do not end. Every fighter has a story to tell.

Two Sudanese brothers were recruited to join the fight. One fought for the Tripoli forces and the other for the LNA.

In December 2023, Asharq Al-Awsat contacted their family to inquire about them. It learned that the older son’s fate remains unknown, while the other managed to flee Libya through Chad and he is now in El-Fasher in Sudan.

The family fled the war in Sudan to Egypt. Asharq Al-Awsat met with the mother who revealed that the family had not been in contact with the brothers for three years.

At one point they learned that one was in Tripoli. “They abducted one and misled the other. We gained nothing from this,” she lamented.

The older brother didn’t even know that his brother had been recruited to fight for the LNA. The brothers never faced each other in battle and the family never informed them that they had been recruited to fight for the rival parties.

“We informed the younger son when he returned to us from Chad in late 2022,” said the mother, who called herself “Umm Bashir.”

She showed Asharq Al-Awsat a video of her older son in Tripoli. His leg has been amputated, and the Tripoli militias are holding him at an arms depot.

“He is 27 years old now. He told us that his leg was amputated after a bullet lodged in his leg was left untreated for two months,” she said tearfully. The family has since lost contact with him.

The family had contacted several parties in Tripoli, including the former GNA, to inquire about him, without reply.

When the war in Sudan erupted in April 2023, mercenaries who had fought for Haftar and Sarraj returned home. The family rushed to learn anything about their son. They were told that he was last seen in Sabratha city, 70 kms west of Tripoli. He is believed to have drowned while attempting to flee to Europe by boat.



Why Metal Prices are Soaring to Record Highs

A salesman displays gold chains at an Indian jewelry store in September. Idrees MOHAMMED / AFP
A salesman displays gold chains at an Indian jewelry store in September. Idrees MOHAMMED / AFP
TT

Why Metal Prices are Soaring to Record Highs

A salesman displays gold chains at an Indian jewelry store in September. Idrees MOHAMMED / AFP
A salesman displays gold chains at an Indian jewelry store in September. Idrees MOHAMMED / AFP

Precious and industrial metals are surging to record highs as the year ends, driven by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, robust industrial demand and, in some cases, tight supply.

Below AFP examines the reasons for the surge in demand.

- Safe havens -

Gold and silver are traditionally seen as safe-haven assets, and demand has soared amid mounting geopolitical tensions, from US President Donald Trump's tariffs onslaught to wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as recent pressure by Washington on Caracas.

Investors are also uneasy about rising public debt in major economies and the risk of a bubble in the artificial intelligence sector.

These uncertainties are driving up gold and silver, with other metals now starting to see the impact as investors seek to diversify their portfolios, explained John Plassard, an analyst at Cite Gestion Private Bank.

"Metal is once again becoming insurance rather than just a speculative asset," he told AFP.

- A weak dollar -

Traditional safe havens like the dollar and US Treasuries have become less attractive this year.

Uncertainty around Trump's presidency and the prospect of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, have weakened the dollar, reducing its appeal to investors.

As a result, many investors are turning to gold and silver.

Gold has climbed more than 70 percent this year and passed $4,500 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday, while silver reached a record high of $72 an ounce, with prices up about 2.5 times since January.

A weak dollar is also boosting industrial metals, since commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for buyers when the currency falls.

- Fresh demand -

Industrial demand has surged in recent months, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence and the energy transition.

Copper, used for solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries and data centers, has seen strong gains as a result.

Prices hit a record on Wednesday, topping $12,000 a ton, helped further by China, the world's largest copper consumer, announcing new measures to boost demand.

Aluminium, a cheaper alternative to copper, and silver are also benefiting from the AI boom and the shift to renewable energy.

Platinum and palladium, used in car catalytic converters, have also risen, reaching a record high and a three-year high respectively, after the European Union decided to allow sales of new internal combustion vehicles beyond 2035.

- Tight supply -

Copper prices have been lifted this year by fears of US tariffs, prompting companies to stockpile ahead of their introduction, with duties imposed on semi-finished products and potentially extending to refined copper.

Supply risks from disruptions at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia have added to the price surge.

Physical markets for silver, platinum, and aluminium are also tight.

According to Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, thin holiday trading, which increases volatility, and investor fear of missing out have further amplified the rise at the end of the year.


How Trump’s Decisions Reshaped Syria

A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)
A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)
TT

How Trump’s Decisions Reshaped Syria

A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)
A photo of US President Donald Trump meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Washington on Nov. 10 (AFP)

In a crowded regional and international landscape shaped by overlapping security, strategic, economic, and political pressures, the administration of US President Donald Trump has moved since its return to the White House in January 2025 to recalibrate its approach to Syria.

After years of US policy marked by hesitation and competing agendas, particularly under the administrations of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Washington is now pursuing a more direct and openly pragmatic course, one focused on achieving tangible results on the ground and managing delicate balances, rather than ideological commitments or long-term strategic gambles.

The shift reflects profound changes inside Syria itself, led by the collapse of the former regime and the emergence of a new government seeking to consolidate domestic legitimacy and secure international recognition.

These developments coincide with the persistent threat posed by ISIS, a retreat in Iranian influence, and the expanding regional roles of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Qatar.

Within this evolving landscape, Washington is repositioning its policy in line with what officials describe as Trump’s Middle East doctrine, centered on enforcing stability, limiting the costs of direct military involvement, and opening pathways for reconstruction, development, and investment.

Interests before ideology

Commenting on this shift, Firas Fahham, a researcher at the Abaad Studies Center, said President Trump’s policy toward Syria could be described as “decidedly pragmatic,” focusing primarily on international and economic interests while setting aside the ideological or intellectual background of Syria’s new government.

Fahham said the central pillar of the emerging convergence between Washington and Damascus was preventing the return of Iranian influence to Syria, a goal that sits at the top of the current US administration’s priorities.

He added that this approach could not be separated from the positions of Arab states allied with the United States, which have openly supported the new Syrian government, led by Saudi Arabia, followed by Türkiye and Qatar.

Fahham said the Trump administration had shown a willingness to respond to these positions, viewing them as a key foundation for rebuilding regional alliances.

Comparing the approach with previous administrations, Fahham said the policies of Obama and Biden had been closer to allowing Iran a free hand in the region and supporting minority influence, particularly through close cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces, known as the SDF.

He said this had complicated the landscape and weakened prospects for establishing a strong central state capable of maintaining security and preventing the return of extremist groups.

From Riyadh to Washington...turning points

Fahham traced key milestones in Trump’s new policy, saying the starting point came during meetings held in Riyadh in June, when the US president, at the request of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria.

He described the move as the first positive signal from Washington toward Damascus. This was followed by a trilateral meeting bringing together Trump, the Saudi Crown Prince, and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, during which the US president offered notable praise for his Syrian counterpart, reflecting Washington’s desire for political openness.

The most important moment, Fahham said, came at the Washington summit held in November, when Trump received President al-Sharaa at the White House in what he described as a pivotal turning point.

Following the meeting, the US administration began concrete efforts to pressure Congress to repeal the Caesar Act, while announcing Syria’s inclusion in the international coalition against ISIS.

This, Fahham said, shifted the relationship from limited coordination to something resembling an alliance.

The SDF and the future of eastern Syria

On the issue of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Fahham said the Trump administration was dealing with the matter from a strictly practical standpoint, balancing its interests with Syria’s new government, reflected in reduced support for the SDF compared with the Biden era, and its interests with its Turkish ally.

Washington, he said, now views Damascus as the most effective actor in the fight against ISIS.

This assessment, he said, was based on recommendations from US research centers. They concluded that previous reliance on the Kurdish component alone, and practices associated with it in eastern Syria, had created a sense of grievance that ISIS later exploited for recruitment.

As a result, the administration became convinced that cooperation with Damascus was more effective.

In a related context, Fahham said Washington viewed Israeli incursions in southern Syria with dissatisfaction, considering them destabilizing and contrary to Trump’s vision for regional development.

The United States, he added, fears that weakening the Syrian government could reopen the door to renewed Iranian influence and ISIS activity.

As for the southern province of Sweida, Fahham said the US administration supports integrating the province into the state, citing remarks by US envoy Tom Barrack, who stated that decentralization had failed in the Middle East, reflecting a preference for backing a unified Syria.

A parallel reading from the military establishment

From another angle, researcher on armed groups Raed al-Hamed offered a complementary reading of the US position.

He said that although Trump, during his first term, had moved toward withdrawing forces and ending the partnership with the SDF, warnings from senior military commanders about a possible ISIS resurgence after the battle of Baghouz in March 2019 prompted him to keep about 2,000 troops in Syria.

Al-Hamed noted that the partnership with the SDF dated back to the battle of Kobani in 2015, when Washington relied on the group as a ground force.

However, he said the new policy following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and Syria’s entry into the international coalition was now based on refusing to recognize any independent entity east of the Euphrates and rejecting federal formulas similar to Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

Al-Hamed said the new policy offered no real US guarantees to the SDF in the face of Türkiye and coincided with pressure to integrate the group into Syria’s military and security institutions, in line with the vision of the Syrian government, which rejects any armed presence outside the framework of the state.

This, he said, is still rejected by the SDF as the deadline approaches for implementing the March agreement with the government in Damascus, scheduled for the end of this year.

Overall, the Syrian scene appears to have entered a pivotal phase that goes beyond traditional conflict equations, laying the groundwork for a new reality governed by the language of interests and reciprocal security arrangements.

While Washington and its regional allies, particularly Riyadh and Ankara, are betting on the ability of the new leadership in Damascus to impose stability and end years of chaos, observers say the success of this path will depend on developments on the ground in the coming months.

The ability of the “new republic” to balance the demands of internal reconciliation with the conditions of external alliances will be the decisive test in determining whether this turn truly marks the opening chapter of an end to years of US hesitation in the region.


Thousands Flock to Bethlehem to Revive Christmas Spirit after 2 Years of War in Gaza

 Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
TT

Thousands Flock to Bethlehem to Revive Christmas Spirit after 2 Years of War in Gaza

 Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
Palestinian scout bands parade toward the Manger Square near the Church of the Nativity, traditionally believed to be the birthplace of Jesus, on Christmas Eve, in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)

Thousands of people flocked to Bethlehem's Manger Square on Christmas Eve as families heralded a much-needed boost of holiday spirit. The giant Christmas tree that was absent during the Israel-Hamas war returned on Wednesday, overlooking a parade of scouts playing songs on bagpipes.

The city where Christians believe Jesus was born cancelled Christmas celebrations for the past two years. Manger Square had instead featured a nativity scene of baby Jesus surrounded by rubble and barbed wire in homage to the situation in Gaza, The AP news reported.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the top Catholic leader in the Holy Land, kicked off this year's celebrations during the traditional procession from Jerusalem to Bethlehem, calling for “a Christmas full of light.”

Arriving in Manger Square, Pizzaballa said he came bearing greetings from Gaza's tiny Christian community, where he held a pre-Christmas Mass on Sunday. Among the devastation, he saw a desire to rebuild.

“We, all together, we decide to be the light, and the light of Bethlehem is the light of the world,” he told thousands of people, Christian and Muslim.

Despite the holiday cheer, the impact of the war in the Israeli-occupied West Bank is acute, especially in Bethlehem, where around 80% of the Muslim-majority city’s residents depend upon tourism-related businesses, according to the local government.

The vast majority of people celebrating were residents, with a handful of foreigners in the crowd. But some residents said they are starting to see signs of change as tourism slowly returns.

Loss of tourism devastates Bethlehem “Today is a day of joy, a day of hope, the beginning of the return of normal life here,” said Bethlehem resident Georgette Jackaman, a tour guide who has not worked in more than two years.

She and her husband, Michael Jackaman, another guide, are from established Christian Bethlehem families that stretch back generations. This is the first real Christmas celebration for their two children, aged 2 1/2 and 10 months.

During the war, the Jackamans pivoted to create a website selling Palestinian handicrafts to try to support others who have lost their livelihoods.

During the Gaza war, the unemployment rate in the city jumped from 14% to 65%, Bethlehem Mayor Maher Nicola Canawati said earlier this month.

A visitor from France, Mona Riewer, said that “I came because I wanted to better understand what people in Palestine are going through, and you can sense people have been through a very hard time."

Although friends and family cautioned her against coming due to the volatile situation, Riewer said being in Bethlehem helped her appreciate the meaning of the holiday.

“Christmas is like hope in very dark situations, a very vulnerable child experiencing harshness,” she said.

Despite the Gaza ceasefire that began in October, tensions remain high across much of the West Bank.

Israel’s military continues to carry out frequent raids in what it says is a crackdown on militants. Attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians have reached their highest level since the United Nations humanitarian office started collecting data in 2006. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war.

The internationally recognized Palestinian Authority has limited autonomy in parts of the territory, including Bethlehem. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is expected to attend midnight Mass for the first time in two years, the mayor said.

As poverty and unemployment have soared, about 4,000 people have left Bethlehem in search of work, the mayor said. It’s part of a worrying trend for Christians, who are leaving the region in droves.

Christians account for less than 2% of the West Bank’s roughly 3 million residents. Across the Middle East, the Christian population has steadily declined as people have fled conflict and attacks.

The beginning of a return to normal life Fadi Zoughbi, who previously worked overseeing logistics for tour groups, said his children were ecstatic to see marching bands streaming through Bethlehem's streets.

The scouts represent cities and towns across the West Bank, with Palestinian flags and tartan draped on their bagpipes, drummers spinning mallets adorned with pompoms. For the past two years, the scouts marched silently as a protest against the war.

Irene Kirmiz, who grew up in Bethlehem and now lives in Ramallah, said the scout parade is among her favorite Christmas traditions. Her 15-year-old daughter plays the tenor drum with the Ramallah scouts.

But her family had to wake up at 5 a.m. to arrive in time for the parade and waited upwards of three hours at Israeli checkpoints. The drive previously took 40 minutes without the checkpoints that have increasingly made travel difficult for Palestinians, she said.

“It's very emotional seeing people trying to bounce back, trying to celebrate peace and love,” Kirmiz said.

The Israeli Ministry of Tourism estimates 130,000 tourists will visit Israel by the end of December, including 40,000 Christians. In 2019, a banner year for tourism before the pandemic, the tourism ministry said 150,000 Christian tourists visited during Christmas week alone.

During the previous two years, the heads of churches in Jerusalem urged congregations to forgo “any unnecessarily festive activities.” They encouraged priests and the faithful to focus on Christmas’ spiritual meaning and called for “fervent prayers for a just and lasting peace for our beloved Holy Land.”