Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions
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Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday reversing earlier declines, as fears of tighter Russian and Iranian supply due to escalating Western sanctions lent support.

Brent futures were up 61 cents, or 0.80%, to $76.91 a barrel at 1119 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 46 cents, or 0.63%, to $74.02.

It seems market participants have started to price in some small supply disruption risks on Iranian crude exports to China, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

In China, Shandong Port Group issued a notice on Monday banning US sanctioned oil vessels from its network of ports, according to three traders, potentially restricting blacklisted vessels from major energy terminals on China's east coast.

Shandong Port Group oversees major ports on China's east coast, including Qingdao, Rizhao and Yantai, which are major terminals for importing sanctioned oil.

Meanwhile, cold weather in the US and Europe has boosted heating oil demand, providing further support for prices.

However, oil price gains were capped by global economic data.

Euro zone inflation

accelerated

in December, an unwelcome but anticipated blip that is unlikely to derail further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.

"Higher inflation in Germany raised suggestions that the ECB may not be able to cut rates as fast as hoped across the Eurozone, while US manufactured good orders fell in November," Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum said.

Technical indicators for oil futures are now in overbought territory, and sellers are keen to step in once again to take advantage of the strength, tempering additional price advances, said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

Market participants are waiting for more data this week, such as the US December non-farm payrolls report on Friday, for clues on US interest rate policy and the oil demand outlook.



Iraq, Türkiye Discuss Protocol to Keep Oil Exports Flowingy

Workers walk across pipelines at the Rumaila oil field in Basra, Iraq (Reuters)
Workers walk across pipelines at the Rumaila oil field in Basra, Iraq (Reuters)
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Iraq, Türkiye Discuss Protocol to Keep Oil Exports Flowingy

Workers walk across pipelines at the Rumaila oil field in Basra, Iraq (Reuters)
Workers walk across pipelines at the Rumaila oil field in Basra, Iraq (Reuters)

An Iraqi delegation visited Ankara to discuss the future of the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline agreement and energy cooperation, Iraq's foreign ministry said on Friday, adding that the two sides agreed to continue technical and legal talks on oil exports.

Iraq and Türkiye are expected to sign an executive protocol to ensure the continuation of Iraqi oil exports, including crude from Iraq's Kurdistan region, the ministry said.

The protocol would serve as a transitional step paving the way for a new agreement within one year of the expiry of the current deal, it added.


EU Trade with US Hits Record High Despite Tariff Tensions, Study Shows

Transshipment containers stacked at the Westhafen container terminal in Berlin, Germany, 01 July 2026. (EPA)
Transshipment containers stacked at the Westhafen container terminal in Berlin, Germany, 01 July 2026. (EPA)
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EU Trade with US Hits Record High Despite Tariff Tensions, Study Shows

Transshipment containers stacked at the Westhafen container terminal in Berlin, Germany, 01 July 2026. (EPA)
Transshipment containers stacked at the Westhafen container terminal in Berlin, Germany, 01 July 2026. (EPA)

Trade in goods between the European Union and the US reached a record €875 billion ($1.00 trillion) last year despite tariffs, but the figures mask significant economic damage, notably to Germany's auto sector, a study published on Friday found.

The research by the German Economic Institute, or IW, found a 7.7% rise in EU exports to the US to €580 billion, while US imports into the ‌EU climbed 2.2% ‌to €295 billion, pushing the EU's trade surplus to nearly €285 ‌billion.

The ⁠report attributed some ⁠of the increase to front-loading of exports ahead of tariffs that took effect in April and said European manufacturing had suffered.

"This first impression is misleading," said IW economist Samina Sultan.

EU car and parts exports to the US fell 20.4% in 2025, with Germany, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of EU auto exports to the United States, posting an 18.9% drop.

Ireland bucked ⁠the trend with a 52.7% surge in exports, driven by ‌tariff-exempt pharmaceutical and chemical products.

Most EU ‌member states recorded a decline in their goods exports to the US Apart ‌from Ireland only the Czech Republic (+5.1%), Italy (+7.2%), Denmark (+10.6%) and Finland (+10.8%) reported growth.

TRANSATLANTIC ‌SERVICES ALSO HIT A RECORD

Transatlantic services trade also hit a record €865 billion, though the EU ran a €178 billion deficit in that category.

"The transatlantic trade relationship is therefore much more balanced, when considering both goods and service trade," the study ‌said, contrasting the EU deficit in services and the surplus in goods.

Intellectual property fees - covering software licenses, patents and ⁠trademarks - accounted ⁠for more than 40% of EU service imports from the US, rising 13.7%.

Although the services sector has so far avoided the impact of US tariffs, the trade conflict has had a negative effect.

EU imports of travel services from the US fell by around 8%. "This decline is likely attributable to the reduced number of European tourists in the US last year," said co-author Galina Kolev-Schaefer.

The study said the Turnberry trade deal between the EU and the US asymmetrically benefited the US, but still it was a workable solution that should be honored by both sides.

"New tariff threats would cause new uncertainty that only hampers business activities on both sides of the Atlantic," the IW said.


Oil Prices Little Changed ahead of Long US Weekend as Peace Efforts Hold

FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo
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Oil Prices Little Changed ahead of Long US Weekend as Peace Efforts Hold

FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo

Oil prices were little changed on Friday before a long holiday weekend in the US, as traders held on to hopes that attempts to secure peace in the Middle East between the United States and Iran would succeed.

Brent futures climbed 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $71.87 a barrel as of 0737 GMT. West Texas Intermediate was down 6 cents, or 0.09%, to $68.63 a barrel.

US markets will be closed on Friday ahead of the US Independence Day holiday on Saturday. During the prior session the two benchmarks hit their lowest levels since before ‌the US-Israeli ‌war on Iran began in late February. Brent for ‌the ⁠week was down ⁠0.16% and WTI down 0.87%, the smallest weekly movements for both in months.

“It's a case of guarded optimism, with the market wanting to believe the peace efforts will hold, but it’s still hedging its bets until it sees real evidence on the water,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

SOME SHIPPING RESUMES THROUGH THE STRAIT

Some shipping ⁠has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, as called ‌for under the initial deal between ‌Iran and the United States, but levels of uncertainty are high after the ‌two countries exchanged strikes last weekend following an Iranian attack on a ‌cargo ship.

As the availability of supplies grows, the market structure has turned from backwardation to contango, reflecting decreasing expectation of future shortages.

The spread between front-month Brent and one-month forward <LCOc1-LCOc2> turned negative on June 24, while the six-month spread <LCOc1-LCOc7> turned negative on Thursday.

"The return of this supply coincides with continued SPR releases," ING analysts said in a note on Friday, referring to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The cheaper near-term supplies could encourage buyers, they added, which could support prices.