Oil Retreats Slightly after Boost from US Crude Draw, Russia Sanctions

Oil Retreats Slightly after Boost from US Crude Draw, Russia Sanctions
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Oil Retreats Slightly after Boost from US Crude Draw, Russia Sanctions

Oil Retreats Slightly after Boost from US Crude Draw, Russia Sanctions

Oil prices fell back slightly on Thursday, a day after settling at multi-month highs on the latest US sanctions on Russia and a larger-than-forecast fall in US crude stocks.

Brent crude futures were down 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $81.66 per barrel by 1042 GMT, after rising 2.6% in the previous session to their highest since July 26 last year.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $79.69 a barrel, after gaining 3.3% on Wednesday to their highest since July 19.

US crude oil stocks fell last week to their lowest since April 2022 as exports rose and imports fell, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

The 2 million-barrel draw was more than the 992,000-barrel decline analysts had expected in a Reuters poll.

The drop added to a tightened global supply outlook after the US imposed broader sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers. The sanctions have sent Moscow's top customers scouring the globe for replacement barrels, while shipping rates have surged too.

The Biden administration on Wednesday imposed hundreds of additional sanctions targeting Russia's military industrial base and evasion schemes.

On Monday, Donald Trump will be sworn in for his second term as US president.

With oil at its current levels, that may lead to clashes with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) if Trump follows his previous playbook. During his first term he demanded the producer group rein in prices whenever Brent climbed to around $80.

OPEC and its allies, which collectively as OPEC+ have been curtailing output over the past two years, are likely to be cautious about increasing supply despite the recent price rally, said Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston, according to Reuters.

"The producer group has had its optimism dashed so frequently over the past year that it is likely to err on the side of caution before beginning the cut-easing process," Johnston said.

Limiting oil's gains, Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal to halt fighting in Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, according to an official.

On the demand front, global oil expanded by 1.2 million barrels per day in the first two weeks in 2025 from the same period a year earlier, slightly below expectations, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.

The analysts expect oil demand to grow by 1.4 million bpd year on year in coming weeks, driven by heightened travel activities in India, where a huge festival gathering is taking place, as well as by travel for Lunar New Year celebrations in China at the end of January.

Some investors are also eying potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2025 following data on an easing in core US inflation - which could lend support to economic activities and energy consumption.



World Bank Warns that US Tariffs Could Reduce Global Growth Outlook

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP
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World Bank Warns that US Tariffs Could Reduce Global Growth Outlook

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP

The World Bank on Thursday warned that US across-the-board tariffs of 10% could reduce already lackluster global economic growth of 2.7% in 2025 by 0.3 percentage point if America's trading partners retaliate with tariffs of their own.
Such tariffs, promised by US President-elect Donald Trump, could cut US growth - forecast to reach 2.3% in 2025 - by 0.9% if retaliatory measures are imposed, the bank said, citing economic simulations. But it noted that US growth could also increase by 0.4 percentage point in 2026 if US tax cuts were extended, it said, with only small global spillovers.
Trump, who takes office Monday, has proposed a 10% tariff on global imports, a 25% punitive duty on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamp down on drugs and migrants crossing borders into the US, and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospect report, issued twice yearly, forecast flat global economic growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, the same as in 2024, and warned that developing economies now faced their weakest long-term growth outlook since 2000, Reuters said.
The multilateral development bank said foreign direct investment into developing economies was now about half the level seen in the early 2000s and global trade restrictions were five times higher than the 2010-2019 average.
It said growth in developing countries is expected to reach 4% in 2025 and 2026, well below pre-pandemic estimates due to high debt burdens, weak investment and sluggish productivity growth, along with rising costs of climate change.
Overall output in emerging markets and development economies was expected to remain more than 5% below its pre-pandemic trend by 2026, due to the pandemic and subsequent shocks, it said.
"The next 25 years will be a tougher slog for developing economies than the last 25," World Bank chief economist Indermit Gil said in a statement, urging countries to adopt domestic reforms to encourage investment and deepen trade relations.
Economic growth in developing countries dropped from nearly 6% in the 2000s to 5.1% in the 2010s and was averaging about 3.5% in the 2020s, the bank said.
It said the gap between rich and poor countries was also widening, with average per capita growth rates in developing countries, excluding China and India, averaging half a percentage point below those in wealth economies since 2014.
The somber outlook echoed comments made last week by the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, ahead of the global lender's own new forecast, to be released on Friday.
"Over the next two years, developing economies could face serious headwinds," the World Bank report said.
"High global policy uncertainty could undercut investor confidence and constrain financing flows. Rising trade tensions could reduce global growth. Persistent inflation could delay expected cuts in interest rates."
The World Bank said it saw more downside risks for the global economy, citing a surge in trade-distorting measures implemented mainly by advanced economies and uncertainty about future policies that was dampening investment and growth.
Global trade in goods and services, which expanded by 2.7% in 2024, is expected to reach an average of about 3.1% in 2025-2026, but to remain below pre-pandemic averages.