Saudi Inflation Holds Steady in May as Rents Remain Key Driver

Aerial photo of the Saudi capital Riyadh (SPA) 
Aerial photo of the Saudi capital Riyadh (SPA) 
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Saudi Inflation Holds Steady in May as Rents Remain Key Driver

Aerial photo of the Saudi capital Riyadh (SPA) 
Aerial photo of the Saudi capital Riyadh (SPA) 

Saudi Arabia’s annual inflation rate remained stable at 2.2 percent in May 2025, maintaining a pace close to the 2.3 percent recorded in April. The continued stability in prices signals a relative balance in inflationary pressures, despite ongoing increases in housing costs.

This resilience comes amid global economic volatility, reflecting the effectiveness of Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and monetary policies, particularly in controlling energy and rental prices. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight uptick of just 0.1 percent.

According to the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), the annual inflation rate for May was driven primarily by rising housing-related costs. Prices in the housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel sector increased by 6.8 percent compared to the same period last year. Food and beverage prices climbed by 1.6 percent, while personal goods and services saw a 4 percent rise.

Residential rents remained the most significant contributor to inflation, continuing their upward trend and exerting substantial influence on the general index. Despite this, the Kingdom’s inflation rate remains among the lowest in the G20.

Commenting on the data, Dr. Abdullah Al-Jassar, a member of the Saudi Association for Energy Economics, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia’s inflation levels remain comparatively low on a global scale. He said the current rate reflects the flexibility and discipline of the national economy, noting that price increases have been modest and largely under control.

Al-Jassar attributed this to effective government policies that have helped shield both the market and consumers from external shocks.

He emphasized that the inflation observed is a result of real economic activity rather than external disruptions or internal imbalances. One of the most effective tools in curbing inflation, he said, has been the government’s decision to stabilize local energy prices, even as global oil prices surged. Since fuel plays a crucial role in the production, transport, and distribution of goods and services, this policy has prevented cost increases from spilling over into other sectors such as food, construction, and housing.

Al-Jassar described this approach as a “smart policy” that successfully absorbed global inflationary shocks before they reached the end consumer.

Although residential rents jumped 8.1 percent year-on-year, he noted that the rise was gradual and primarily driven by strong demand and limited supply. He also pointed out that the Saudi riyal’s peg to the US dollar has helped protect the economy from imported inflation and reduce the cost of importing goods.

Increased competition, tighter price monitoring, and the growing presence of e-commerce were also cited as factors contributing to market stability and limiting price manipulation across various sectors.

Looking ahead, Al-Jassar suggested inflation could see a slight increase in the second half of 2025, potentially rising to between 2.5 and 3 percent. He attributed this potential uptick to seasonal factors or changes in global commodity prices. Additionally, if the US Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates, this could lead to looser monetary policy in Saudi Arabia, boosting liquidity and consumption—factors that might put upward pressure on prices. However, he stressed that there are currently no signs of any sharp or unexpected inflationary surges.

In April 2025, the inflation rate stood at 2.3 percent, also led by a 6.8 percent rise in housing and related costs. Food and beverages saw a 2.2 percent increase, while personal goods and services were up 3.5 percent.

Month-on-month data showed that while May’s CPI rose by just 0.1 percent, residential rents continued to rise, helping push housing-related prices up by 0.3 percent. Actual rents for residences alone increased by 0.4 percent. Food and beverages inched up by 0.1 percent, while personal goods and services rose by 0.5 percent. Tobacco prices edged up by 0.2 percent.

 

 

 



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.