Damascus, Kurdish SDF Caught Between US Pressure and Stalled Roadmap

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa signed a deal in Damascus last March with SDF commander Mazloum Abdi on integrating the force into state institutions (AP)
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa signed a deal in Damascus last March with SDF commander Mazloum Abdi on integrating the force into state institutions (AP)
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Damascus, Kurdish SDF Caught Between US Pressure and Stalled Roadmap

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa signed a deal in Damascus last March with SDF commander Mazloum Abdi on integrating the force into state institutions (AP)
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa signed a deal in Damascus last March with SDF commander Mazloum Abdi on integrating the force into state institutions (AP)

Diplomatic activity intensified in the Syrian capital in recent hours, centering on a high-level meeting between President Ahmed al-Sharaa and delegations from the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) and the United States, represented by Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack and US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper.

According to multiple sources, the talks focused on implementing the March 10 Agreement signed between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), amid US pressure to accelerate the process before the end of the year.

The meetings — attended by Syria’s ministers of foreign affairs and defense and the head of the General Intelligence Directorate — covered several issues, including the ceasefire in the north announced after talks between Maj. Gen. Murhaf Abu Qasra, Syria’s defense minister, and Mazloum Abdi, the SDF’s top commander.

Discussions also addressed security and administrative arrangements, the sharing of oil revenues, and the future of decentralization in SDF-held areas.

The March 10 Agreement is viewed as the main political framework regulating ties between Damascus and the SDF, but implementation has been partial.

Sinam Mohamad, the Syrian Democratic Council’s representative in Washington, told Asharq Al-Awsat that joint committees “have made little progress,” noting that issues such as the return and protection of displaced residents “remain unresolved due to a lack of guarantees and continued coercive practices by Syrian security-affiliated groups.”

By contrast, Ayman Abdel Nour, a Syrian-American political analyst and media figure, said the slow implementation reflects “confusion in the US vision” more than local field obstacles.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that envoy Barrack “failed to strike a balance between supporting the Autonomous Administration and safeguarding Damascus’s interests,” and that his latest visit “was an attempt to rescue the agreement before US support ceases entirely.”

US Frustration Growing

James Jeffrey, the former US Secretary’s Special Representative for Syria Engagement under President Donald Trump, wrote that the roadmap negotiated between Damascus and the SDF “has yet to be implemented,” adding that Washington is increasingly frustrated by both sides’ delays.

In a commentary published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Jeffrey said the temporary halt to the US troop withdrawal was driven by concerns over a potential collapse of Syria’s fragile stability.

He added that the visits by Barrack and Cooper were part of an effort “to help break this impasse,” reflecting at the same time genuine American concern over losing diplomatic momentum in a file vital to regional peace.

Integration... the Toughest Hurdle

Leaks from the Damascus meeting indicated that the most sensitive issue discussed was the integration of military and security institutions between the Syrian army and SDF formations.

Sinam Mohamad said this “cannot be resolved through quick decisions,” stressing that the SDF “includes women’s units and diverse local components that are part of the region’s identity.”

She added: “We want to be part of a national Syrian army, but based on clear guarantees and respect for the distinct character of our areas.”

Abdel Nour noted that Damascus sees integration as “the easiest step,” with President al-Sharaa viewing it as a confidence-building measure. But the SDF insists on addressing civil and economic files first.

“The disagreement reflects the deep mistrust between both sides,” he said, as Damascus views any delay as a threat to sovereignty, while the Kurdish administration fears losing its organizational and security autonomy.

Commenting on the integration of the northeast into Syria, Jeffery wrote: “Ultimately, the future welfare (and wealth) of the Syrian nation and its people greatly depend on peacefully integrating the northeast.”

“To jumpstart this process, the Kurds should go first, taking the right combination of confidence-building steps so that Damascus can feel assured about responding with similar moves.”

Jeffery also wrote that “for now, the Kurds mainly need to acknowledge the central government’s sovereignty over all of Syria,” and that “Damascus has to show restraint toward minorities and at least meet minimum international standards in considering legitimate requests, including from the Kurds.”

Decentralization and the Return of the Displaced

Decentralization and the return of displaced people formed another key focus of the talks. Mohamad stressed that a solution “must be political, based on a decentralized system that allows all Syrian components to participate in national decision-making.”

She added that the lack of security guarantees in areas such as Sheikh Maqsoud and Sweida “makes it impossible to discuss disarmament or the reintegration of local administrations,” rejecting any calls for partition.

Abdel Nour said the debate over decentralization “remains suspended between US ambitions for a gradual settlement and Damascus’s fear of losing central control.” Washington, he added, “wants to preserve Syria’s unified state structure but knows the current system cannot survive without genuine structural reforms.”

Jeffrey argued that Syria’s unity is a prerequisite “for Syria to become a full member of the international community,” warning that ongoing delays in political and administrative reforms will keep the country divided and vulnerable to regional interference.

“The main preoccupation for Syrian officials seeking to promote unity and stability is the Kurdish-controlled northeast, home to most of the country’s hydrocarbons, much of its arable land, and more than 10 percent of its population, including a mix of Kurds, Arabs, and other groups,” wrote Jeffery.

He also highlighted Türkiye’s stance as the most sensitive external factor, saying Ankara is watching the agreement’s implementation with growing concern and sees continued SDF armament as a direct threat to its national security.

“This patience could wear thin at any point,” wrote Jeffery.

US Role and Waning Influence

The diplomatic push in Damascus coincided with signs of a shrinking US footprint in the Syrian file. Sources close to the talks said Washington informed both parties that its political and military mission “will conclude by year-end.”

Abdel Nour said this message “reflects President Trump’s desire to close the Syrian file as part of a broader regional peace plan rooted in expanding the Abraham Accords.” But, he added, “Envoy Barrack has failed to translate that vision on the ground or make breakthroughs in sensitive issues such as relations with Israel and oil revenue sharing.”

For her part, Mohamad said Washington “remains more interested in preventing escalation than imposing political solutions,” arguing that “the US priority is to keep frontlines quiet ahead of any future settlements.”

The withdrawal decision risks ceding American influence in Syria to Russia and Iran, stressing that pulling out before securing a settlement between Damascus and the SDF would plunge the country back into fragile chaos.

Jeffery wrote that “Washington should press the Kurds to take the following confidence-building steps as soon as possible:

Remove non-Syrian forces from the northeast, mainly PKK members serving as administrative or military personnel.

Formalize in writing the current informal arrangements with Damascus on oil deliveries from the northeast.

Turn over international border crossings to the central government, with arrangements to allow the unimpeded flow of US military supplies.

Accelerate negotiations on handing the largely Arab province of Deir al-Zour to Damascus.”

He then pointed to Washington, in return, having to “encourage Damascus to take immediate steps to alleviate Kurdish and international concerns, focusing on measures related to education, security, and inclusive governance (though future negotiations will address many of these issues more thoroughly).”

Despite announcements that consultations will continue in the coming weeks, Abdel Nour said envoy Barrack “faces a web of conflicting interests that could derail his mission,” citing his contradictory statements alternating between calls for Syrian unity and a confederal model.

He believes Barrack’s mission “may end soon,” coinciding with the expected departure of UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen in mid-November, with no successor likely to be appointed “given the disappearance of the conditions that justified his post following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.”



Syria Fears War Fallout on Domestic Stability

Syrians who fled the war in Lebanon check in after arriving at the Syrian-Lebanese border crossing in Jdeidet Yabous, Syria, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
Syrians who fled the war in Lebanon check in after arriving at the Syrian-Lebanese border crossing in Jdeidet Yabous, Syria, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
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Syria Fears War Fallout on Domestic Stability

Syrians who fled the war in Lebanon check in after arriving at the Syrian-Lebanese border crossing in Jdeidet Yabous, Syria, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
Syrians who fled the war in Lebanon check in after arriving at the Syrian-Lebanese border crossing in Jdeidet Yabous, Syria, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)

Syrian experts warned that escalating tensions in the region could drag on indefinitely, placing Syria at the heart of the crisis as the government struggles to meet citizens’ needs amid the return of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Lebanon and expectations of further returns from Türkiye and neighboring countries this summer.

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that if tensions ease in the near term, the impact of the ongoing regional war would be limited.

“But if it continues, the consequences will be catastrophic for countries with fragile economies, foremost among them Syria,” they said.

Even as the Energy Ministry denied any current shortages of petroleum products, Syrian refugees continued to stream back from Lebanon.

The state-run Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) said the Jousieh border crossing in Homs province recorded a noticeable rise on Tuesday in the number of returnees due to current security developments in the region.

The General Authority for Land and Sea Ports said on Monday that the Jdeidet Yabous and Jousieh crossings had received about 11,000 arrivals from Lebanon, most of them Syrians. It said it remained on full alert to handle the growing influx.

At home, early signs of strain are emerging. Lines have lengthened at household gas distribution centers, and electricity rationing hours have increased after a relative improvement in recent months.

The fallout from the regional escalation was immediate, economists said. Firas Shaabo told Asharq Al-Awsat that while Syria is not a direct party to the conflict, it sits at its economic center. A prolonged crisis would be devastating for fragile economies, especially Syria’s, he said.

Investors and institutions that signed agreements with Damascus would retreat into what he described as “internal hedging,” leaving Syria to cope alone.

That comes as hundreds of thousands of refugees return involuntarily from Lebanon and Iraq, with large numbers also expected from Türkiye this summer, along with expatriates - a heavy burden for a government already under strain.

Academic researcher and economic adviser Ziad Ayoub Arbache said the military escalation had morphed into an “economic shock,” rippling through oil prices, shipping lanes and civil aviation routes.

As regional security risks mount, fragile economies, led by Syria, are facing mounting pressure on energy supplies, supply chains and exchange rates amid warnings of disruptions.

The broad strikes on Iran carry economic implications, alongside threats to Gulf shipping.

Iranian strikes affecting the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 25% of global oil trade passes, have driven up insurance premiums and freight costs.

Arbache said higher shipping and insurance costs were already squeezing Syria’s access to fuel, industrial and food supplies, and production inputs. Oil, he noted, is used in the manufacture of 500,000 products in Syria. Energy-intensive sectors such as cement, food and agriculture have been hit, with output falling and prices rising, fueling inflation.

If the escalation widens, oil prices could top $100 a barrel, he warned. Factory closures, rising unemployment and shrinking remittances from expatriates, particularly in the Gulf, would likely follow.

Long-awaited investments could stall, capital could flee, and unemployment could climb again amid entrenched stagflation, especially in construction and tourism. A renewed energy crisis would pile further pressure on households.

The Energy Ministry said on Tuesday there was no shortage of gasoline, diesel or household gas. Refineries were operating normally, crude import contracts remained in place through approved channels, and operational stockpiles were within safe limits.

It said congestion at some fuel stations stemmed from an unprecedented spike in demand, with sales surging to more than 300% of the normal daily average due to fears over regional developments and the spread of rumors, not an actual supply shortfall.

Still, Shaabo warned of “very difficult days” ahead if tensions fail to subside. Syria depends heavily on imported essentials, while its production base is limited, reserves are weak and infrastructure worn down. Exchange rate distortions add further strain.

Syria’s external vulnerability outweighs its internal resilience, he said, and any global energy shock would quickly erode purchasing power and living standards.

Arbache agreed, saying Syria’s economy “is tied to the trajectory of the conflict through oil, transport and exchange rates.”

Between open-ended escalation and possible political containment, he said, the course of the war will determine economic and living stability in the period ahead.


Syria Says Army Reinforces Deployment Along Border with Lebanon, Iraq

Syrian troops on patrol in the Hasakeh region. (AFP)
Syrian troops on patrol in the Hasakeh region. (AFP)
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Syria Says Army Reinforces Deployment Along Border with Lebanon, Iraq

Syrian troops on patrol in the Hasakeh region. (AFP)
Syrian troops on patrol in the Hasakeh region. (AFP)

Syria's defense ministry said it reinforced its border with Lebanon, and eight Syrian and Lebanese sources said this included rocket units and thousands of troops as conflict spread in the region including between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The sources included five Syrian military officers, a Syrian security official and two Lebanese security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Syrian defense ministry said in a statement on Wednesday that the army has reinforced its deployment along the Syrian borders with Lebanon and Iraq ‌as part of ‌efforts to “protect and control the borders amid the escalating regional ‌conflict”.

The ⁠deployed units belong ⁠to the border guard and reconnaissance battalions tasked with monitoring border activities and combating smuggling, the ministry added.

The Syrian officers said the Syrian reinforcement operation began in February but sped up in recent days. The Syrian and Lebanese armed forces did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The Syrian officers, including a senior member of the military, said the move was aimed at preventing arms and drugs smuggling as well blocking Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah ⁠or other militants from infiltrating Syria.

A Syrian officer told Reuters that ‌military formations from several Syrian army divisions, including ‌the 52nd and 84th Divisions, have expanded their presence along the border in western Homs countryside and ‌south of Tartus.

The reinforcements include infantry units, armored vehicles and short-range Grad and ‌Katyusha rocket launchers, the official said.

The Syrian security official said Damascus had no plans for military action against any neighboring country. “But Syria is prepared to deal with any security threat to itself or its partners,” he said.

Still, the move has fueled concern among some European and Lebanese officials ‌over a possible incursion.

The Syrian military officers vehemently denied any such plans, saying Syria wants balanced relations with its neighbor after ⁠decades of strained ⁠ties linked to Syria's outsized influence in Lebanon and Hezbollah's support for the former government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during a 14-year civil war.

Syria had troops stationed in Lebanon from 1976 until 2005 including during Lebanon's civil war that ended in 1990.

Hezbollah resumed firing at Israel on Monday more than a year after reaching a ceasefire to a months-long war in 2024. Since that ceasefire, Israel continued near-daily strikes.

Israel this week ordered much of Lebanon's south evacuated, with tens of thousands of people displaced. Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon's South and southern Beirut have killed dozens and prompted thousands of people to flee towards Syria.

A senior Lebanese security official said Syrian authorities told Beirut that Syria's deployment of rocket launchers along the mountains that form Lebanon's eastern border with Syria was a “defensive measure against any action or attack that Hezbollah might launch against Syria."


Lebanon: Hezbollah Ban Faces Legal, Security Test

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a joint press conference with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier, not pictured, at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a joint press conference with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier, not pictured, at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
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Lebanon: Hezbollah Ban Faces Legal, Security Test

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a joint press conference with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier, not pictured, at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a joint press conference with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier, not pictured, at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Lebanon’s government has entered a decisive test phase after banning the military and security activities of Hezbollah, a move President Joseph Aoun on Tuesday described as “sovereign and final, with no turning back,” despite open rejection from the group and rising domestic pressure for swift enforcement.

Aoun said the Lebanese army and security forces had been tasked with implementing the decision across all Lebanese territory. The judiciary has begun pursuing those responsible for launching rockets from Lebanon.

Calls are mounting for the move to go further, extending to everything linked to Hezbollah militarily, politically and financially.

Israel announced on Tuesday "broad-scale strikes" against Hezbollah after the group fired missiles on Israel to avenge the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei during US-Israeli strikes on Saturday.

Ministerial sources said implementation of the decision targeting Hezbollah’s military wing is underway, adding that enforcement now covers all armed manifestations of any kind across Lebanon. Previous discussions had focused only on areas south and north of the Litani River.

A judicial source told Asharq Al-Awsat that authorities had identified the missile launch site, specifically north of the Litani, and were tracking those behind the attack. Their names and identities have not yet been determined, the source said, although their affiliation is known.

Hezbollah rejected what it called the government’s “reckless decision.”

The head of its parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, in a statement issued hours after reports indicated he had been assassinated in an Israeli strike on Monday, described it as a “decision to ban the rejection of aggression,” accusing the government of failing to carry out the “decision of war and peace.”

Criminal prosecutions and administrative action

Constitutional expert Dr. Saeed Malek said the government’s move “does not become fully effective unless followed by implementing decrees and measures issued by the competent ministries.”

Declaring a ban, he said, effectively places the party’s military and security wings outside the law, with all the consequences that entails.

Malek told Asharq Al-Awsat that the decision requires immediate criminal prosecutions before the Public Prosecutor at the Court of Cassation on charges including crimes against state security, forming an association aimed at undermining state authority, membership in an illegal armed organization, possession of military weapons without a license, and exposing Lebanon to hostile acts outside state authority.

These steps could lead to arrest warrants, travel bans and precautionary measures in line with legal procedures.

He said the move also requires administrative action by the Interior Ministry, including dissolving and closing headquarters and offices affiliated with the military and security wings, withdrawing licenses from linked associations and bodies, revoking the legal status of entities operating for their benefit directly or indirectly, and banning any related organizational activity under any name.

Administrative, political and financial impact

Implementation extends to the administrative and political spheres, Malek said, by treating affiliation with wings deemed outside the law as a legal obstacle to holding public office, running for elections or occupying ministerial and administrative posts, subject to due judicial process.

Financially, he said, it requires assigning Banque du Liban and the Special Investigation Commission to freeze accounts and assets, block any direct or indirect financing, subject linked individuals to special financial scrutiny when illicit funding is suspected, and bar any contracting or support from public institutions, municipalities and official bodies.

Pressure to move fast

Political pressure to enforce the decision immediately is intensifying.

Sami Gemayel, head of the Kataeb Party and an MP, said after meeting Aoun that while the decisions were “historic,” the real test lay in implementation.

Gemayel demanded that all military and security forces be placed at the disposal of the judiciary to enforce the decisions by force; otherwise, these judicial decisions remain without follow-up.

“The test is mobilizing all state capabilities to implement the decision, starting with arresting any Hezbollah security cell that may move in the coming period,” he said.

He called for activating army intelligence to monitor any such cells.

Lebanese Forces party chief Samir Geagea urged security and judicial authorities to take immediate, clear, practical steps to enforce the decision, warning of the dangerous consequences of hesitation.

MP Michel Moawad, after meeting Aoun, said “the state has effectively begun initial steps,” citing the arrest of individuals and the dismantling of some weapons depots.

Former MP Fares Soaid questioned whether arrest warrants in absentia should be issued against party leaders if rocket launches continue. MP Fadi Karam said there could be no state or stability under “consensual security,” urging security and judicial authorities to assume their responsibilities.