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Oil Up 1% after Trump Says India Promised to Stop Buying from Russia

FILE PHOTO: Rosneft's Russian-flagged crude oil tanker Vladimir Monomakh transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 6, 2023. REUTERS/Yoruk Isik/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Rosneft's Russian-flagged crude oil tanker Vladimir Monomakh transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 6, 2023. REUTERS/Yoruk Isik/File Photo
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Oil Up 1% after Trump Says India Promised to Stop Buying from Russia

FILE PHOTO: Rosneft's Russian-flagged crude oil tanker Vladimir Monomakh transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 6, 2023. REUTERS/Yoruk Isik/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Rosneft's Russian-flagged crude oil tanker Vladimir Monomakh transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 6, 2023. REUTERS/Yoruk Isik/File Photo

Oil prices rose around 1% on Thursday after US President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged his country would stop buying oil from Russia, a move that could drain supply elsewhere.

Brent crude futures rose 54 cents, or 0.87%, to $62.45 a barrel by 0430 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 57 cents, or 0.98%, to $58.84, Reuters said.

Both contracts touched their lowest since early May in the previous session on US-China trade tensions and after the International Energy Agency warned of a big surplus next year as OPEC+ producers and rivals lift output amid weak demand.

Trump said on Wednesday that India - which taps its top supplier Russia for about one-third of its oil imports - would halt oil purchases from Russia, and the US would next try to get China to do the same as Washington intensifies efforts to cut off Moscow's energy revenues and pressure it to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine.

The Indian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to emailed questions about whether Modi had made such a commitment to Trump.

Some Indian refiners are preparing to cut Russian oil imports, with expectations of a gradual reduction, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said on Wednesday that he told Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato that the Trump administration expects Japan to stop importing Russian energy.

India and China are the two top buyers of Russian seaborne crude exports, which are sanctioned by the US and European Union. For months, Modi resisted US pressure to stop buying Russian oil, with Indian officials defending the purchases as vital to national energy security.

"At the margin, this is a positive development for the crude oil price as it would remove a big buyer (India) of Russian oil," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG.

The UK government also announced new sanctions on Wednesday, directly targeting Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil - two of the world's biggest energy companies.

The sanctioned entities include four oil terminals, the private refiner Shandong Yulong Petrochemical in China, 44 tankers in the "shadow fleet" transporting Russian oil, and Nayara Energy Limited, a Russian-owned refinery in India.

Later on Thursday, investors will be watching for the weekly US inventory statistics release from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) after mixed data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group.

US crude and gasoline stocks rose while distillate inventories fell last week, market sources said, citing API figures on Wednesday.

Crude stocks rose by 7.36 million barrels in the week ended October 10 and gasoline inventories increased by 2.99 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 4.79 million barrels from a week earlier, the sources said.

While lower distillate inventories point to stronger demand for diesel, a buildup in crude oil and gasoline stocks suggests demand in the US, the world's top oil consumer, remains sluggish.

Analysts forecast that US crude stockpiles rose by about 0.3 million barrels last week.

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Business

UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
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UK Suffers OECD's Biggest Growth Downgrade as Iran War Pushes Up Energy Costs

This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)
This overhead view shows buildings along the River Thames in London on March 25, 2026. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP)

Britain's economic ‌growth prospects this year received the sharpest downgrade of any major economy in the OECD's interim forecast update on Thursday following the US-Israeli war ​on Iran, while inflation is set to rise faster too.

The Paris-based international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to 0.7%, compared with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade for the euro zone and a 0.3 percentage point upgrade for the United States.

"Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices ‌are anticipated to keep ‌growth subdued in the United ​Kingdom, ‌though the ⁠impact ​will be ⁠attenuated by lower policy rates next year," Reuters quoted the OECD as saying in its report.

Following are further highlights from the report and other context:

Britain's growth forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Britain's inflation forecast for 2026 is revised up by 1.5 percentage points from December to 4.0%, the ⁠biggest upward revision of any large, advanced ‌economy.

UK inflation in 2027 ‌is forecast to be 2.6%, 0.5 percentage ​points higher than in ‌December and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Poorer UK households spend more on gas and electricity than in other rich countries, though total energy spending makes up a smaller share of UK inflation than elsewhere.

The OECD expects the ‌BoE to keep interest rates unchanged this year then cut in Q1 2027 as inflation ⁠eases.

⁠Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility, in forecasts finalized just before the start of the conflict, predicted GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

The BoE this month forecast inflation would rise to 3.0-3.5% over the next couple of quarters.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made boosting growth and reducing the cost of living top goals for his government.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the forecasts showed the war in the Middle East ​was affecting Britain but ​she would still focus on "regional growth, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU."

Business

Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
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Gold Drops More than 1% as Markets Assess Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and coins lie on the table at the Precious metal dealership Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Gold prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by increased expectations of US Federal Reserve rate hikes this year as elevated oil prices stoked inflation worries, with investors awaiting clarity on Middle East de-escalation efforts.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,451.47 per ounce by 0811 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery lost 2.3% to $4,448.

"You're ‌seeing an ‌acceleration of the idea that... this war will ‌mean ⁠inflation and inflation ⁠will mean a response from central banks, which will mean higher interest rates," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Brent crude futures climbed back above $100 a barrel on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.

Higher crude prices tend to fuel inflation, and while rising inflation typically boosts gold's appeal ⁠as a hedge, high interest rates weigh on ‌demand for the non-yielding asset.

Markets see ‌a 37% chance of a US rate hike by December this year ‌with almost no chance of a cut now, according to ‌CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Before the conflict, markets were expecting at least two rate cuts.

US President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign ‌minister who said his country was reviewing a US proposal but had no intention of holding talks ⁠to wind down ⁠the conflict.

"In the next 24 to 48 hours, (gold prices) will just be about reacting to headlines about negotiations," said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"The really big moves will happen probably at the start of next week when it becomes clearer whether the US launches a ground invasion in Iran over the weekend."

Trump has vowed to hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been "defeated militarily", White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday.

Spot silver fell 2.7% to $69.36 per ounce. Spot platinum was down 2.3% at $1,874.90, while palladium dropped 2.5% to $1,387.53.

Business

Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
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Oil Climbs and Equities Sink amid Mixed Messages on 'Talks'

FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil refinery in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan March 17, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

Oil prices jumped and equities fell Thursday as investors tracked developments in the Middle East amid hopes that US and Iranian officials will bring an end to a conflict that has ramped up fears of an unprecedented global energy crisis.

Markets have been buoyed since late Monday after Donald Trump backed down on a threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and said the two sides were in peace talks.

But while crude prices are down from last week and the mood on trading floors has been better than most of March, uncertainty and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which around 20 percent of oil and gas passes -- continue to cast a dark shadow.

Washington presented a 15-point plan to end the war, including Iran giving up its enriched uranium and opening up the waterway, while Tehran's state-run TV reported officials had put forward their own five conditions for hostilities to end.

Trump on Wednesday threatened to "unleash hell" if Iran did not strike a deal, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country does not intend to negotiate.

But the US president also said Iran was taking part in peace talks and the denials were because negotiators feared being killed by their own side.

"Pressure on energy prices, shipping flows and broader financial conditions remains one of the few meaningful sources of leverage (Iran) retains," said Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana.

"There is therefore little incentive to relinquish that leverage prematurely, particularly if market stress strengthens its negotiating position.

However, she added: "It would be imprudent to assume diplomacy is absent simply because it is not visible. In conflicts of this nature, public rhetoric and private negotiation often diverge materially.

"Markets understand this dynamic, and they also tend to inflect before the political endgame is formally in place."

With investors holding on to hope that a deal can be struck, oil prices have stabilized this week, with Brent just above $100 and WTI around $90.

Both contracts rallied Thursday.

Stocks in Wall Street and Europe rose but Asian markets struggled after a two-day rally.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Sydney, Taipei, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta fell along with London, Paris and Frankfurt.

City Index's Fiona Cincotta said for any recovery to gain traction, "investors will want to see clearer signs of de-escalation, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz".

Her remarks come after the head of the International Chamber of Commerce, John Denton, warned the conflict could cause the "worst industrial crisis" in decades.

"The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that the world is facing an energy crisis more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s," he added.

"From a business perspective, we believe this could yet become the worst industrial crisis in living memory."

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said disruptions to fertilizer supplies posed a double threat to global food security through scarcity and high prices, with a third of the global fertilizer supply normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz.