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Oil Falls for a Second Day as Oversupply Concerns Dominate 

A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
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Oil Falls for a Second Day as Oversupply Concerns Dominate 

A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer
A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer

Oil prices fell for a second day on Tuesday as concerns about excess supply and risks to demand stemming from tensions between the US and China, the world's top two oil consumers, weigh on the market.

Brent crude futures fell 17 cents, or 0.28%, at $60.84 a barrel at 0343 GMT. The US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) contract for November delivery, set to expire on Tuesday, eased 0.52% to $57.22. The more active December contract was down 19 cents, or 0.33%, at $56.83.

Prices declined to their lowest since early May in Monday's session on the concerns about slowing economic growth from the recent escalations in the US-China trade dispute.

Both WTI and Brent have shifted to contango market structures, where prices for immediate supply are lower than for later delivery and which typically indicates that near-term supply is abundant and demand weakening.

Prices have slumped as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, have pushed ahead with plans to add more oil to the market. This has led analysts to predict a surplus of crude this year and next, with the International Energy Agency last week projecting a global surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026.

"The continued weakening of Brent's monthly spread structure indicates that the pressure from oversupply in the crude oil market is gradually materializing," analysts from China's Haitong Securities said in a note on Tuesday. "This will dampen market expectations and curb investors' willingness to chase gains, limiting the potential for oil prices to rebound."

The current pessimistic outlook for oil is likely to extend into 2026, with analysts at Goldman Sachs saying on Tuesday they forecast Brent prices may drop to $52 a barrel by the fourth quarter of next year.

The Goldman analysts attributed the past week's slump in Brent prices to indications "the long-anticipated global surplus has started to show" in satellite data on global oil stockpiles and inventory data from the IEA and the Energy Information Administration in the US.

Expectations are that US crude oil stockpiles likely rose last week, a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday showed, ahead of weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the EIA.

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Business

IEA Proposes Building Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline to Bypass Hormuz

A general view of oil tanks at Türkiye's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, February 19, 2014. (Reuters)
A general view of oil tanks at Türkiye's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, February 19, 2014. (Reuters)
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IEA Proposes Building Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline to Bypass Hormuz

A general view of oil tanks at Türkiye's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, February 19, 2014. (Reuters)
A general view of oil tanks at Türkiye's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, February 19, 2014. (Reuters)

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol proposed building a new oil pipeline linking Iraq’s Basra oil fields and Türkiye’s Mediterranean oil terminal in Ceyhan to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, according to Turkish newspaper Hürriyet.

“I believe a Basra-Ceyhan pipeline could be extremely attractive and a very important project for both Iraq and Türkiye, as well as for regional supply security, especially from Europe’s perspective,” Birol said in an interview with the newspaper.

“I also believe the financing issue can be overcome. Now is exactly the right time.”

He said, “The vase has been broken once, and it is very difficult to fix,” referring to the Strait of Hormuz.

A new oil pipeline “is a necessity for Iraq and an opportunity for Türkiye. It is also a major opportunity for Europe in terms of supply security. I think this should be considered a strategic project,” Birol added.

The war on Iran has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which 20% of the world’s oil supply flows, bringing global economic pain in the form of higher prices for gasoline, fertilizer and other staples.

Iraq and Türkiye share the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, a strategic corridor for transporting crude oil from northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, which began operation in 1976.

Iraq is seeking to rehabilitate the pipeline to overcome export problems, proposing to establish a new line from Basra to Ceyhan as a safe alternative to the Strait of Hormuz and to boost European energy security. On Sunday, Birol suggested building the new line.

Business

Taiwan Business Group Urges Beijing, Taipei to Keep Politics Out of Trade

A person looks at a stock market graph inside the Taiwan Stock Exchange in Taipei, Taiwan, 20 April 2026. (EPA)
A person looks at a stock market graph inside the Taiwan Stock Exchange in Taipei, Taiwan, 20 April 2026. (EPA)
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Taiwan Business Group Urges Beijing, Taipei to Keep Politics Out of Trade

A person looks at a stock market graph inside the Taiwan Stock Exchange in Taipei, Taiwan, 20 April 2026. (EPA)
A person looks at a stock market graph inside the Taiwan Stock Exchange in Taipei, Taiwan, 20 April 2026. (EPA)

The head of one of Taiwan's top business groups said on Monday both Beijing and Taipei should leave politics out of resuming normal trade and tourism exchanges, after China unveiled new incentives for the island.

China, which views democratically-governed Taiwan as its own territory, announced measures this month which include easing tourism curbs and food imports, but said they had to be based on "opposing Taiwan independence".

China refuses to talk to Taiwan President Lai ‌Ching-te saying he ‌is a "separatist", and has stepped up political and economic ‌pressure ⁠in recent years, ⁠targeting tourism and imports of food, as well as holding regular war drills.

"As soon as there is an opening up, it should be as much as possible be systematic and normalized to maintain the long-term stability of business and trade exchanges," said Paul Hsu, chairman of the General Chamber of Commerce.

Flanked by representatives of the tourist and food sectors, he ⁠urged China to ensure stability in trade ties ‌rather than sudden stops and starts, in ‌comments to reporters in Taipei.

No matter which political party runs a city ‌or county, China should offer equal treatment, especially in southern Taiwan, ‌Hsu added, referring to a stronghold of Lai's Democratic Progressive Party.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

China's new steps came at the end of a visit to Beijing by Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun, ‌which she described as a journey of peace, on which she met President Xi Jinping.

Taiwan's government should ⁠also "proactively face" China's offers ⁠of opening up, Hsu's group, which represents more than a million companies, said in a statement accompanying the remarks.

Group members' votes would go to whoever was good for Taiwan industry, Hsu said, adding that he was representing non-partisan industry voices.

"As long as you put forth good policies, we will offer support. But if you stand against us, I'm sorry, I can't support you. We have a vote - we are a democratic society."

Taiwan will hold key local elections in November, with the next presidential vote scheduled for early 2028.

On Sunday, Taiwan's China-policy making Mainland Affairs Council said the government would address the "reasonable demands" of industry, but warned it not to "become tools manipulated and exploited by the Chinese communists".

Business

Oil Prices and Stocks Climb as US-Iran Standoff Keeps Strait of Hormuz in Limbo

Tankers and gas carriers anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, Saturday, April 18, 2026. (AP)
Tankers and gas carriers anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, Saturday, April 18, 2026. (AP)
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Oil Prices and Stocks Climb as US-Iran Standoff Keeps Strait of Hormuz in Limbo

Tankers and gas carriers anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, Saturday, April 18, 2026. (AP)
Tankers and gas carriers anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, Saturday, April 18, 2026. (AP)

Oil prices climbed more than 5% while Asian shares also advanced Monday as a standoff between Iran and the US prevented tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz.

The Gulf waterway was closed again after Iran reversed a decision to reopen the strait and President Donald Trump said a US Navy blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect.

US benchmark crude gained 5.6% to $87.20 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, was up 5.3% at $95.16 a barrel.

Despite renewed doubts about how soon ships will again transport the vast amounts oil the world gets from the Middle East, share prices were mostly higher in Asia.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 gained 1% to 59,045.45, while South Korea's Kospi was up 1.1% at 6,260.92.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.8% to 26,373.71 and the Shanghai Composite index advanced 0.6% to 4,075.08.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was nearly unchanged at 8,943.90.

In Taiwan, the Taiex jumped 1.4%.

“The problem for markets is not the absence of hope; it is the overpricing of it,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary. “The latest move higher in equities has started to feel less like conviction and more like momentum feeding on itself.”

On Friday, oil prices had dropped back to where they were in the early days of the Iran war, and US stocks raced to a fresh record after Iran said the strait was open again for commercial tankers carrying crude from the Gulf to customers worldwide.

A freer flow of oil could relieve pressure on prices for gasoline and all kinds of other products that get moved by vehicles. It could even ultimately help people pay less on credit-card interest and mortgage bills.

The S&P 500 leaped 1.2% to an all-time high of 7,126.06, closing out a third straight week of big gains, its longest streak since Halloween.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.8% to 49,447.43. The Nasdaq composite climbed 1.5% to 24,468.48.

The US stock market has jumped more than 12% since hitting a bottom in late March on hopes the United States and Iran can avoid a worst-case scenario for the global economy despite their war.

The price for a barrel of benchmark US crude had plunged 9.4% after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, posted on X that passage for all commercial vessels through the strait “is declared completely open” as a ceasefire appears to be holding in Lebanon.

Brent crude fell 9.1%.

After Araghchi's announcement, Trump said on his social media network that the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports remained “in full force” pending a deal on the war, though he also suggested that “should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated.”

President Donald Trump said Sunday that the US had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to get around a naval blockade. Iran’s joint military command said Tehran would respond soon and called the US seizure an act of piracy.

A fragile, two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire Wednesday, while escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz raises questions over new talks to end the war.

Since the war began, market sentiment has swung between optimism and gloom over when the fighting will end and what costs the world economy will endure. A strong start to the earnings reporting season for big US companies has helped support stocks.

In other dealings early Monday, the US dollar rose to 158.90 Japanese yen from 158.79 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1757 from $1.1742.