El-Mahboub Abdul Salam to Asharq Al-Awsat: Al-Turabi Tasted the Betrayal of his Disciples, Foremost Among them Omar al-Bashir

 
Al-Bashir and al-Turabi (right) after the coup (AP)
Al-Bashir and al-Turabi (right) after the coup (AP)
TT

El-Mahboub Abdul Salam to Asharq Al-Awsat: Al-Turabi Tasted the Betrayal of his Disciples, Foremost Among them Omar al-Bashir

 
Al-Bashir and al-Turabi (right) after the coup (AP)
Al-Bashir and al-Turabi (right) after the coup (AP)

Dr. Hassan Abdullah al-Turabi once tasted a bitter truth: that a man’s own disciples may one day betray him. It is almost a law of political life that students eventually turn on their teachers.

Al-Turabi had chosen the young army officer Omar Hassan al-Bashir to lead Sudan, perhaps imagining that he could remain behind the curtain as the guiding hand, a spiritual mentor presiding over the state, as Ayatollah Khomeini had done in Iran. But generals have their own instincts. Power is a feast that tolerates no partners. Soon enough, al-Bashir rebelled, and the master who had raised him was cast aside.

In 2017, a year after al-Turabi’s death, I interviewed Omar al-Bashir on that complicated relationship. When asked who had been the hardest person to deal with in his political life, he immediately named al-Turabi. He described him as a man of “immense charisma,” one who had long dominated the Islamic Movement and triumphed in every internal battle, until his clash with al-Bashir himself, when, for the first time, he lost.

Al-Bashir’s rule was marked by constant shifts and contradictions, none more telling than his oscillating relationship with Iran. In 1992, Sudan was under suffocating sanctions, short of weapons and ammunition, and isolated after Iraq’s decline.

Desperate for aid, Finance Minister Abdul-Rahim Hamdi traveled to Tehran to request assistance. The Iranians, however, demanded that Sudan first repay the debts left by the Jaafar Nimeiri regime. They explained that their priority was to help the newly independent Shiite communities emerging from the collapse of the Soviet Union, and offered instead to send books and sports equipment. Khartoum’s delegation was stunned. When Hamdi recounted the story to al-Turabi, the latter laughed bitterly and said: “Haven’t you read The Book of Misers? Most of it is about the Persians.”

Iran’s stance changed years later. After 2003, it supported the Sudanese army in the war in Darfur, established husayniyyas (Shiite centers), converted a small number of Sudanese to Shiism, and sent hundreds of youths for training in Syria. Iranian engineers helped build military industries south of Khartoum, and weapons were smuggled through Port Sudan to Gaza for Hamas, via Egyptian tunnels. Israeli warplanes would later strike those factories, exposing the secret routes.

I once asked al-Bashir whether he could ever enjoy life as a “former president.” He smiled and said: “Not only would it be easy - it would be a pleasure. People will still call you ‘Your Excellency’ in the street, but you’ll have no responsibilities.” Experience teaches journalists not to take such remarks at face value; similar words are spoken by leaders who never truly imagine leaving office.

Al-Turabi himself seldom condemned other rulers. He counted Muammar Gaddafi among his friends, saying their meetings were always frank and candid. He also believed that Saddam Hussein had undergone a transformation after the first Gulf War, symbolized by adding the phrase Allahu Akbar to Iraq’s flag. Such reflections revealed a man who, despite his ideological fervor, viewed other strongmen as peers in power and survival.

Among those who knew both al-Turabi and al-Bashir closely was Dr. Al-Mahboub Abdul Salam, a Sudanese politician and thinker who lived through the rise and unraveling of their shared project. In his view, the Sudan of today - torn apart by war and bleeding from within - is the direct legacy of that turbulent era.

Abdul Salam said that many Sudanese now live with the haunting fear of becoming people without a homeland. “This is not just a feeling,” he observed. “It’s a psychological reality. Some Sudanese have already begun to rebuild their lives elsewhere. The war has touched everyone - it has destroyed homes, livelihoods, memories, and the very sense of belonging. No one has been spared.”

He noted that the blame for Sudan’s collapse lied with the country’s elites, those of both the left and the right. “The Marxists, the Islamists, and even the centrist politicians share responsibility,” he said. “The military and civilian elites are two faces of the same coin. Tayeb Salih once wrote that in Sudan, some officers wake up one morning and decide to seize power by driving a tank to the radio station. But many civilians have the same hunger for authority. They just wear different clothes.”

Abdul Salam argued that politics became, for many, “a profession for the unqualified.” True politics, he insisted, requires training, study, and deep knowledge of the country and the world. “If you are Sudanese, you must know every corner of Sudan, its regions, its people, its contradictions. But many who rushed into power came from nowhere, driven only by ambition.”

He added that both soldiers and civilians failed equally. “What Sudan suffers today is the meeting of two failures, military and civilian.”

Reflecting on his own past, Abdul Salam admits that even before the 1989 coup, he doubted that the Islamic Movement was ready to govern. “We had capable leaders, scholars, and administrators,” he said, “but a state is far larger than any movement can imagine. Had we let the movement mature within democracy instead of seizing power by force, Sudan’s story might have been different.”

There is no doubt in his mind that Hassan al-Turabi was the mastermind of the 1989 coup that brought al-Bashir to power. “He designed it from start to finish,” Abdul Salam said. Al-Turabi had met al-Bashir only once before the coup, two days before its launch. “Go to the palace as president,” he told the young officer, “and I will go to prison as a captive.” It was a deliberate act of deception meant to mislead Sudan’s political parties and foreign observers into thinking that al-Turabi was uninvolved. For a while, the ruse worked. Egypt and other neighbors welcomed the new regime, unaware of its Islamist core.

Al-Turabi justified his deceit as a wartime tactic. He often said that the world would never accept an Islamic regime, whether it came to power democratically or through a coup. Therefore, he considered the revolution a form of war, where deception was permissible. But the disguise did not last long. The Gulf War exposed Khartoum’s Islamist sympathies when it sided with Saddam Hussein, and Sudan found itself isolated, condemned by its neighbors and the world.

Sudan also became the most vivid example of the “Sheikh and the President” dynamic: a spiritual guide wielding hidden influence while the official ruler executed his will. Al-Turabi and al-Bashir shared an office called the “Leadership Bureau.” Formally, al-Turabi was head of the movement and al-Bashir one of its members. In reality, the former commanded ideological power while the latter held the guns. That dual authority could not endure.

The rupture came on December 12, 1999, when the famous Mufasala, the Great Split, tore the movement apart. For al-Turabi, it was a personal and moral betrayal. He believed they were united by a sacred project to transform history, and that conspiracies could never achieve such a mission. But his own disciples, both civilian and military, had conspired behind his back. The “Memorandum of Ten,” drafted by his opponents within the movement, marked the beginning of the end.

Abdul Salam believes that al-Bashir began to see al-Turabi as a burden as early as 1993, when the latter demanded that the Revolutionary Command Council be dissolved and that the officers return to their barracks. This was the first real collision between al-Turabi’s strategic vision and the generals’ lust for permanence. Yet external pressures - international isolation and domestic opposition - forced them to remain together for several more years. “They knew any split at that time would destroy the regime entirely,” Abdul Salam explained. “Besides, al-Turabi still commanded loyalty even within the military.”

Over time, however, the state’s intelligence services began spying on al-Turabi himself. “They claimed it was their duty,” Abdul Salam said, “but we objected. We believed he deserved independent protection - just as Western leaders have their own special security apart from intelligence agencies.”

Looking back on Sudan’s modern history, Abdul Salam described Jaafar Nimeiri as a charismatic but authoritarian ruler. “A strong leader, yes, but a dictator nonetheless.”

As for Sadiq al-Mahdi, the long-time leader of the National Umma Party, Abdul Salam described him as “deeply intelligent, highly charismatic, but born into an environment that sanctified leadership.” Al-Mahdi saw himself as destined to rule, yet lacked the decisiveness of a true statesman. “He was a thinker, a lecturer, a man of ideas - more suited to opposition and intellectual debate than to governance.”

Abdul Salam spent a decade as al-Turabi’s chief of staff, witnessing firsthand the man’s ambition and complexity. “He changed the face of Sudanese politics,” he said. “Before him, the political arena was divided between two religious sects - the Umma Party of Sadiq al-Mahdi and the Democratic Unionist Party of Muhammad Uthman al-Mirghani. Al-Turabi broke that monopoly. He became, in a sense, the ‘third saint’ of Sudanese politics.”

When al-Turabi joined Nimeiri’s government after seven years in prison, some were shocked. He used to smile and say: “We are Islamizing the system, step by step.” His goal, Abdul Salam explained, was to ensure that his movement could organize freely in society - among students, women, farmers, and professionals - while cooperating with power from within.

He even likened politics to a “game” governed by its own rules and fouls. Nimeiri tolerated him, believing the Islamists would never rule until long after his death. But during those years of so-called “national reconciliation,” the Islamist movement built its real foundations.

For al-Turabi, prison had been a university. He said he never suffered from solitude, reading hundreds of books and writing new theories of Islamic jurisprudence. “He read four hundred volumes on economics alone,” Abdul Salam recalled. “He used prison as others might use a library.”

Exposure to Western thought also shaped al-Turabi profoundly. Educated in Britain and France, he brought to the Islamist project a rare sophistication. “He produced the most advanced version of the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology,” Abdul Salam remarked, “one that tried to engage modernity rather than reject it.” Yet that same intellect drove him to think in terms of long-term strategy. He divided the movement’s progress into stages: secrecy, preparation, empowerment, and eventual control of the state - by elections if possible, by revolution if necessary. From the 1960s onward, he had already imagined that a coup might one day be the vehicle.

Sudan’s October Revolution of 1964, which overthrew a military regime, had convinced many - including Communist leader Abdul Khaliq Mahjoub - that the army would never again seize power. But when Nimeiri did exactly that in 1969, the lesson was clear: the temptation of power never dies.

According to Abdul Salam, the relationship between Hassan al-Turabi and Sadiq al-Mahdi combined intimacy with rivalry. Both came from Islamic traditions and shared views on freedom, women’s rights, and economic openness. Early on, they appeared almost as one political family. Al-Mahdi, confident in his vast popular base, saw al-Turabi and other intellectuals as tools to modernize the Umma Party and assumed al-Turabi’s role would never exceed that of a minister. But al-Turabi’s ambitions were far greater: he sought to found his own movement, a third force in Sudanese politics. Had that partnership endured, Sudan might have gained a powerful current capable of bringing lasting stability.



Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood at a Crossroads

Ali Ahmed Karti, Secretary General of the Sudanese Islamic Movement. (Facebook)
Ali Ahmed Karti, Secretary General of the Sudanese Islamic Movement. (Facebook)
TT

Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood at a Crossroads

Ali Ahmed Karti, Secretary General of the Sudanese Islamic Movement. (Facebook)
Ali Ahmed Karti, Secretary General of the Sudanese Islamic Movement. (Facebook)

Sudan is passing through an exceptionally complex phase as the war enters its fourth year and military and political alliances continue to shift at a rapid pace. With factions that have defected from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) joining the Sudanese Armed Forces, alongside the Joint Forces of Darfur’s armed movements, the Sudan Shield Forces, and formations linked to the Islamist movement, a new balance of power is gradually emerging within the anti-RSF camp.

This evolving landscape reflects a temporary convergence of interests among actors that differ sharply in their backgrounds, objectives, and visions for Sudan’s future. While confronting the RSF remains the primary factor uniting these forces, underlying political and military differences raise serious questions about the durability of their alliance.

Sudan’s history suggests that wartime coalitions do not necessarily evolve into stable partnerships in peacetime. Instead, they often become arenas for new struggles over influence, power, and postwar arrangements. Understanding the emerging balance of forces is therefore crucial to assessing whether cooperation or confrontation will define the next phase.

In recent months, the Sudanese army has become the principal military umbrella under which a range of disparate groups operate.

The Joint Forces drawn from Darfur’s armed movements bring battlefield experience and significant combat capability. The Sudan Shield Forces have emerged as a growing tribal and military force, while former RSF members are seeking to secure a place within the new order.

Necessary alliance

This configuration has created what amounts to an “alliance of necessity.” Its members are united by a common objective — defeating the RSF — but not by a shared political project. Each faction has its own calculations regarding future power-sharing arrangements and influence.

Within this context, a central question concerns the place of Sudan’s Islamist movement in the postwar landscape.

For decades, Islamists constituted one of the most influential forces within the Sudanese state through their political, organizational, and security networks. Today, however, they no longer monopolize the instruments of power.

Many of the groups that have risen during the conflict do not subscribe to the Islamist project. Some also carry a long history of political rivalry with Islamists dating back to the era of the National Salvation regime led by ousted former President Omar al-Bashir.

This has produced a striking paradox: the broader the coalition supporting the army becomes, the smaller the Islamists’ relative weight within it. They are no longer the sole source of political backing, military support, or social mobilization. Instead, they have become one actor among several competing centers of influence, each pursuing its own interests.

Sudanese army soldiers parade in the streets of eastern Sudan's city of Gedaref on August 14, 2025 to mark the 71st anniversary of the formation of the Sudanese army. (AFP)

Mounting pressure

Signs are growing that the Islamist movement is facing increasing political pressure, both domestically and internationally.

Retired Maj. Gen. Abdel-Hadi Abdel-Basit, a strategic analyst close to Islamist circles, said the movement is confronting unprecedented challenges.

Calls have intensified for Islamists to be excluded from post-war arrangements and even held accountable for their role during decades of rule and the allegations associated with that period.

In recent months, several prominent Islamist figures were detained and later released, while National Congress Party leader Al-Numan Abdel Halim remains in custody.

These developments coincided with what many Islamists believe were externally driven pressures, including the US State Department’s designation of Sudan’s Islamist movement, the National Congress Party, and the Al-Baraa ibn Malik Battalion as terrorist organizations.

Regional and international actors have likewise called for Islamists to be excluded from any future political process.

Such positions have surfaced in consultations involving both the Quad mechanism — comprising Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and United States — and the Quintet mechanism, which includes the United Nations, the European Union, the African Union, the Arab League, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

Civilian political forces, however, view the decline of Islamist influence primarily as a consequence of Sudan’s democratic transition rather than the war itself.

Bakri Eljack, spokesman for the democratic civilian coalition Somoud (Resilience), argued that army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan may be able to distance himself from the Islamists, but their influence within state institutions remains significant.

Any effort to remove them would require a broad political alliance capable of managing the next phase, he explained.

Sharif Mohamed Osman, of the Sudanese Congress Party, said the Islamist project and National Congress Party rule were rejected by the people will during the December 2018 revolution.

He noted that efforts associated with prolonging the conflict have further weakened the movement, while international pressure and sanctions have deepened its political isolation.

Yet, predictions of the Islamists’ complete demise may be premature. The movement still possesses extensive organizational networks, decades of political experience, and influence within parts of the state and society.

Even so, current trends suggest that regaining the dominant position it enjoyed during the Bashir era may be more difficult than ever before.


Can Iran Maintain its Influence in Iraq?

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi meets Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Kazem Al Sadeq in Baghdad. (Government media)
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi meets Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Kazem Al Sadeq in Baghdad. (Government media)
TT

Can Iran Maintain its Influence in Iraq?

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi meets Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Kazem Al Sadeq in Baghdad. (Government media)
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi meets Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Kazem Al Sadeq in Baghdad. (Government media)

Iraqi politicians are closely watching what they describe as the potential “side effects” of any future US-Iran agreement and how it could reshape the balance of power inside Iraq.

Some observers argue that a deal would likely strengthen Washington’s influence while diminishing Tehran’s leverage. Others contend that Iran could emerge from the process with a renewed and possibly more durable form of dominance in Iraq over the coming months and years.

With significant ambiguity still surrounding the US-Iran memorandum of understanding - particularly regarding Tehran’s regional proxies and allied armed groups - signals from both capitals have done little to clarify Iraq’s future position within the competing spheres of influence of the two longtime adversaries.

The US Position

Despite repeated American warnings to Baghdad against bringing factions designated on the US terrorism list into government, Washington’s broader position remains unclear.

Asked by Alhurra, the US-funded Arabic-language broadcaster, whether a US-Iran agreement would affect Iraq and whether it might weaken or strengthen armed factions, Joshua Harris, the chargé d’affaires at the US Embassy in Baghdad, declined to speculate on the outcome.
Instead, he said the priority should be an Iraqi government that places the interests of its citizens first, noting that the United States approaches foreign policy by prioritizing its own national interests.

Harris added that the foundation of a mutually beneficial partnership between Washington and Baghdad depends on the Iraqi state confronting the challenge posed by militias and ensuring that weapons remain exclusively under state control. He described this as the essential benchmark that Iraq must meet in order to deepen its partnership with the United States.

A handout photo made available by the Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office on 17 June 2026 shows Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi (L) meeting with US Special Presidential Envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack (R) in Baghdad, Iraq, 15 June 2026. EPA/IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S MEDIA OFFICE

Iran Regains Momentum

At the same time, the Iranian role appears to be returning to the level seen before the war that erupted at the end of February.

Media outlets close to Tehran report that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi plans to visit Baghdad soon to discuss the talks held in Switzerland and preparations for the funeral procession of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Earlier, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani announced that Khamenei’s body would be transferred in early July as part of the funeral arrangements preceding burial ceremonies.

Even amid uncertainty surrounding those plans, some observers argue that the announcement itself underscores the extent of Iran’s influence in Iraq.

The Militias Question

Although Iran-aligned factions created security challenges through their involvement in the war on Tehran’s side, Iran’s ambassador to Iraq, Mohammad Kazem Al Sadeq, recently insisted that Iran “has not asked any party to intervene because it did not need such intervention.”

The remark suggested that Iraqi armed factions volunteered to support Iran rather than acting at Tehran’s request.

On the issue of restricting weapons to state control - a matter on which Washington has adopted a notably firm position - the Iranian ambassador said it was an internal Iraqi matter and that Tehran would respect any decision taken by the Iraqi government.

At the same time, he stressed the need to understand why armed factions wish to retain their weapons and to address what he described as their concerns and fears.

The source argued that Iran has demonstrated over the past two decades that it knows precisely what it wants from Iraq, unlike what he characterized as inconsistent American policy. He predicted that this situation would continue even after any US-Iran agreement is signed.

According to the source, who requested anonymity, Iran is likely to adopt a less visible approach after an agreement, one that avoids provoking Washington while preserving its traditional influence through allied political parties and figures.

Mourners attend the funeral of members of the Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah who were killed in an airstrike that targeted a PMF headquarters near the western al‑Qaim district on the Syrian border, amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran, in Baghdad, Iraq, March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Suda

The Oil Card

Opponents of Iranian influence take a different view. They believe the administration of President Donald Trump is both willing and able to curb Tehran’s reach through mounting pressure on Iran and sustained influence over decision-making in Baghdad.

These groups argue that the threat of economic sanctions alone could prompt Iraqi leaders - particularly Shiite political parties - to reconsider the risks associated with continued Iranian influence.

A key factor is Iraq’s dependence on the US-controlled financial system. Revenues from Iraqi oil sales are deposited with the US Federal Reserve before being transferred back to Iraqi banks, giving Washington a powerful source of leverage over Baghdad.


Undoing the ‘Tangled Nest’ of Iran Sanctions Won’t Be Easy or Quick

A veiled Iranian woman walks past an anti-US mural, depicting an Iranian and US negotiation table, next to the former US embassy in Tehran, Iran, 22 June 2026. (EPA)
A veiled Iranian woman walks past an anti-US mural, depicting an Iranian and US negotiation table, next to the former US embassy in Tehran, Iran, 22 June 2026. (EPA)
TT

Undoing the ‘Tangled Nest’ of Iran Sanctions Won’t Be Easy or Quick

A veiled Iranian woman walks past an anti-US mural, depicting an Iranian and US negotiation table, next to the former US embassy in Tehran, Iran, 22 June 2026. (EPA)
A veiled Iranian woman walks past an anti-US mural, depicting an Iranian and US negotiation table, next to the former US embassy in Tehran, Iran, 22 June 2026. (EPA)

Tehran stands to gain billions of dollars from a 60-day reprieve from US sanctions announced on Monday, but unwinding more than four decades of restrictions poses legal, political and commercial challenges that could take years.

At issue is whether an interim US deal with Iran can translate into lasting economic relief, given the complexity of dismantling a sanctions regime that spans US law, international measures and private-sector risk concerns.

The United Nations, the US and the European Union have imposed sanctions and trade embargoes and have frozen assets since the late 1970s over Iran's nuclear program, human rights violations and support for armed groups around the region.

Under a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran last week, Washington is to start abolishing all types of sanctions using a schedule to be forged in a final deal within 60 days, a period that can be extended.

On Monday, the US Treasury issued a temporary general license allowing the production, delivery and sale of crude oil and petrochemical and petroleum products of Iranian origin through August 21.

Removing the remaining sanctions - if it happens - would represent a stark change in US policy toward the Middle East, which has long focused on curbing ‌Iran's influence and ‌using financial pressure to weaken its theocratic government.

It would also be difficult, requiring executive action for some measures, approval ‌by ⁠Congress for others ⁠and close coordination with the UN and other countries that have imposed their own sanctions. Companies, wary after decades of restrictions, could also blunt the impact.

"You have this tangled nest of sanctions, and it's not just executive orders, it's congressional sanctions," said Juan Zarate, deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism under former President George W. Bush.

CONGRESS IS SKEPTICAL

Washington first sanctioned Iran in 1979, after revolutionary students seized the US embassy in Tehran, holding diplomats hostage.

Since then, Congress has passed half a dozen sanctions laws and presidents have issued executive orders over Iran's nuclear program and its support for groups the US deems terrorist organizations including Hamas, Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis.

Since early 2025, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has imposed sanctions on more than 1,000 people, vessels and aircraft, according to Treasury data.

Delisting thousands of entities designated for ⁠sanctions would take OFAC at least a year, said Jeremy Paner, a partner at law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed ‌and a former US sanctions official.

President Donald Trump can rescind executive orders issued on Iran, but some ‌measures - including sanctions on Hamas and Hezbollah - are mandated by law and will have to be removed or amended by Congress, where the interim deal has already sparked sharp ‌public criticism from his fellow Republican lawmakers.

Undoing 40 years of sanctions would be difficult, added Matt Zweig, managing director of policy at FDD ‌Action, the lobbying arm of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

"Any attempt to comprehensively remove layer upon layer of sanctions will be like peeling back an onion - exposing the administration - not just to legal complexities but political risks," said Zweig, a former aide on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

The license issued on Monday could be worth up to $3 billion for Iran over two months, by some estimates.

That could swell to "at least tens of billions of dollars" if made permanent, erasing a discount on Iranian oil, allowing Tehran to ‌sell to additional buyers beyond China, and increasing exports, said Edward Fishman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. China now buys about 90% of Iranian oil, despite the sanctions.

The new license is broader than ⁠the one issued in March, calling for ⁠inclusion of not just oil and petroleum products, but also banking, insurance and transportation related to the oil trade, giving Tehran quicker access to its revenues.

"There are a number of thorny issues involved," said Stephanie Connor, a former OFAC official now a partner with law firm Holland & Knight, adding that lifting sanctions could mean funds flowing to groups the US considers a threat.

"Are we really going to let money start flowing to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps?" she asked, referring to the powerful paramilitary force that the US has designated a foreign terrorist organization.

WARY COMPANIES

Banks, oil firms and insurers will face evolving regulations, tougher due diligence and exposure to sanctions-evasion risks tied to Iran links with countries such as China, North Korea and Russia. They also remain subject to separate sanctions from Britain, the UN, the EU and others.

"We've kind of beaten the markets up with the risk of doing business with or through Iran, so you can't just flip a switch and say, 'Oh, now it's okay to do business with Iran,'" Zarate said.

Companies that deal with Iran would still face lawsuits from victims of attacks, who can sue investors and companies for aiding designated groups under the 2016 Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which aides say is unlikely to be repealed.

Given such risks, companies may steer clear of working with Iran to escape legal and reputational risk as long as the Iranian government remains in power, said Brett Erickson, principal with Obsidian Risk Advisors.

"We're not going to see massive multi-billion-dollar commitments until things are far more cemented and politically stable," he said. "There's just a long way to go."