In an unusual development, informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Iraqi government and influential political actors received two extraordinary warning messages over the past two weeks — one from an Arab country and another from a Western intelligence service — containing what were described as “serious” indications of impending, wide-ranging military strikes inside Iraq.
An Iraqi official confirmed that a “friendly state” had briefed Baghdad on the substance of the threat, prompting Shiite factions to move swiftly toward concessions.
According to the sources, potential targets could have included government institutions linked to Shiite factions and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), powerful financial and military figures, sites and depots for drones and missiles, and training camps.
The two warnings are widely believed to have accelerated a recent wave of political statements by factions calling to “confine weapons to the state,” while simultaneously requesting time and freedom of action, within what they termed a “national framework”, to dismantle their military capabilities. This position remains a point of contention among leaders of the Coordination Framework.
A Message from a “Friendly State”
The threat level first rose with a message from an Arab country that maintains good relations with both Washington and Tehran. The message warned that Baghdad was perilously close to a swift military strike, likened to the targeting of Hamas’ political office in Doha in September 2025.
The message, delivered to Iraqi officials and politicians, stressed that the threat was “extremely serious” and that Israelis were now speaking openly of having received a green light from the United States to act unilaterally in the Iraqi theater.
Iraq has been among the arenas Israel has contemplated striking since the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks. Iraqi politicians told Asharq Al-Awsat in recent months that Washington had restrained Israel from operating in Iraq, while pressing Baghdad to remove the risks posed by weapons outside state control.
A Western diplomat said US officials felt Iraqi leaders did not fully grasp the gravity of the situation and had grown frustrated with what they saw as a weak response.
An Iraqi government official acknowledged receiving multiple warnings about armed groups from friendly states and Western embassies in Baghdad.
“A Massive File”
Days after the Arab message, Iraqi officials received what sources described as a “massive file” from a Western intelligence service. The file included Israeli-prepared lists packed with detailed information on Iraqi armed factions.
The breadth, precision, and depth of the intelligence stunned Iraqi officials. One told Asharq Al-Awsat that the timing of revealing the extent of Israel’s knowledge was critical. The lists reportedly detailed faction leaders, covert operatives within their inner circles, financiers and business figures tied to the groups, and government institutions serving as fronts for factional influence.
The Western service warned that Israel was on the verge of a broad operation now that the factions’ operational and financial capabilities and the deep networks underpinning their military structures had been exposed. After reviewing parts of the file, Shiite politicians reportedly recalled the pager explosions in Lebanon as a cautionary precedent.
“What Now?”
A senior Shiite leader within the Coordination Framework revealed that the two messages “changed the equation,” pushing party leaders to accelerate steps related to factional arms. Many are now grappling with a single question: what to do next? Disagreements persist over the method and the trusted authority to oversee a transitional phase of weapons consolidation.
The leader noted the first phase would involve handing over ballistic missiles and drones and dismantling and surrendering strategic camps north and south of Baghdad. A second phase, he claimed, would include removing faction-affiliated officials from the PMF, pending the US response.
An official in the State of Law Coalition said an agreement to remove heavy weapons had already existed within the Coordination Framework, even before US pressure intensified. Current disputes center on which state body would take custody of the weapons, amid US distrust of security institutions seen as influenced by factions.
Complicating matters, factions fear implementing disarmament amid fraught negotiations to form a new government. Caretaker Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani is seeking a second term after winning the largest bloc within the Coordination Framework, a bid opposed by his rival Nouri al-Maliki, who favors a compromise candidate.
US Pressure
The Western intelligence message coincided with the arrival in Iraq of Senior Defense Official Colonel Stephanie Bagley. US defense funding will hinge on three conditions set out in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act, passed on Dec. 11, 2025.
The law conditions assistance on Iraq’s ability to publicly and verifiably reduce the operational capacity of Iran-aligned armed groups not integrated into the security forces through disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration. It also requires strengthening the Iraqi prime minister’s authority as commander-in-chief and investigating and prosecuting militia members or security personnel operating outside the official chain of command if involved in attacks or destabilizing acts.
Western diplomatic sources said Bagley is expected to seek a clear, enforceable timeline from Iraqi officials. She met twice in one week with Army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir Yarallah in October 2025.
A former Iraqi official noted that Washington has repeatedly pressed Baghdad for a timeline to dismantle militia influence, especially ahead of 2026, when the US-led coalition is set to complete its mission. A US State Department spokesperson reaffirmed that Washington will continue to press for the disarmament of Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty and threaten Iraqis and Americans alike.
