Gold Breaks $4,400 for 1st Time on Fed Rate-cut Bets, Silver Hits New High

FILE PHOTO: UK gold bullion bars are stacked at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: UK gold bullion bars are stacked at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
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Gold Breaks $4,400 for 1st Time on Fed Rate-cut Bets, Silver Hits New High

FILE PHOTO: UK gold bullion bars are stacked at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: UK gold bullion bars are stacked at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo

Gold jumped past the $4,400-per-ounce level for the first time on Monday, riding on growing expectations of further US rate cuts and strong safe-haven demand, with silver also joining the rally to hit an all-time high.

Spot gold was up 1.7% at $4,411.01 per ounce, as of 0822 GMT, having climbed down from the record high of $4,420.01 hit earlier in the day. Spot silver climbed 2.5% to hit $69.44, Reuters reported.

US gold futures for February delivery rose 1.3% to $4,444.00 per ounce.

Bullion has gained 67% ⁠so far this year, shattering multiple records and breaching the $3,000 and $4,000 per-ounce milestones for the first time. It is poised for its biggest annual gain since 1979.

Silver has surged 138% year-to-date, vastly outperforming gold, underpinned by robust investment inflows and persistent supply constraints.

"With December usually producing positive returns for gold and silver, seasonality is on their side," said StoneX ⁠senior analyst Matt Simpson.

"Given that gold has already risen 4% this month and we're nearing the end of the year, bulls may want to tread with caution as volumes are to deplete and odds of profit-taking are also likely on the rise."

Spot gold may extend gains to $4,427 per ounce, as it has broken a key resistance at $4,375, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said.

Traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, gold has been supported by heightened geopolitical and trade tensions, steady central bank buying and expectations of lower interest rates next year.

A ⁠softer dollar has provided an additional tailwind by making the metal cheaper for overseas buyers.

Markets are currently pricing in two US rate cuts for next year despite the Federal Reserve signaling caution. Non-yielding assets such as gold tend to benefit in lower interest rate environments.

Simpson said two Fed rate cuts were penciled in for 2026, with a faster US jobs slowdown and a shift to a more dovish Fed likely to add further upside to gold.

Elsewhere, platinum jumped 4.3% to $2,058.35, hitting its highest in more than 17 years, while palladium climbed 4.1% to $1,784.00, a near three-year high.



Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The current oil supply crisis shows there is underinvestment in oil refining as demand holds resilient, Saudi state-owned Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, Musaab Al Mulla, said on Tuesday.

Around 3 ⁠million barrels per ⁠day of refining capacity closed between 2020 and 2023, Al Mulla said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East ⁠Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

"Now we realize if you have those refineries you may have definitely mitigated the impacts of the crisis today," he said.

The war in Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure and ⁠Iran's effective ⁠closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by a US naval blockade, have removed around 14 million bpd of oil supply from Middle East producers to the global market.


OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The war in the Middle East has dented economic growth prospects worldwide, with a more severe shock likely if no effective ceasefire is agreed before 2027, the OECD warned Wednesday.

Global economic growth is now forecast to slip to 2.8 percent for 2026 if Gulf exports of oil and gas return to pre-conflict levels in the third quarter, the group of 38 industrialized countries said in its quarterly update.

Previously the OECD had forecast full-year global growth of 2.9 percent.

But if the Middle East war continues into next year, however, global growth could slow to 2.1 percent, the OECD said -- well below the average annual growth of 3.4 percent seen from 2013 to 2019, before the Covid pandemic.

"The longer the disruptions last, the larger the economic and social costs become," the group's chief economist Stefano Scarpetta said in the report.

Many countries would risk falling into recession, he noted, and a drop in investment spending -- "including in energy-intensive AI" -- would likely push up unemployment.

Sustained high prices for energy as well as fertilizer and other key products from hydrocarbon production in the Gulf would weigh especially hard on developing countries that have "higher shares of energy and food in household consumption".

Even if the war sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February ends in the coming weeks, the OECD forecast global inflation rising to 4.0 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025.

In this "time-limited disruption scenario", the group expects US growth to slow to 2.0 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2027, after growing 2.1 percent last year.

In the eurozone, where many countries are highly dependent on energy imports, GDP growth will slump to 0.8 percent this year after 1.4 percent last year, assuming a Mideast ceasefire is secured in the coming weeks.


Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May as domestic demand improved and supply chains stabilized, while business optimism remained subdued amid conflict in the region, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction, Reuters reported.

Output accelerated at the ⁠fastest pace in ⁠three months after March's downturn following the start of the Iran war, as firms cited normalizing working conditions, revived contracts and stronger local demand.

Export sales fell for a third straight month, hit by shipping disruption, higher freight and fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and stronger competition. The pace of decline eased only modestly from April's survey-record contraction.

However, supply chains improved, with suppliers' delivery times shortening for the first time in three months as ⁠firms relied ⁠more on local vendors. Backlogs of work rose for an 11th consecutive month, albeit moderately.

“Overall, the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy will continue its upward trend during the remainder of 2026," said Naif Al-Ghaith, Riyad Bank's chief economist.