The agreement reached by the Yemeni government in Muscat with the Houthis to exchange about 2,900 prisoners and detainees from both sides marks a new test of the group’s credibility in closing one of the conflict’s most complex humanitarian files after years of delays and failure.
Despite a broad local and international welcome for the deal, doubts still surround its implementation mechanisms, given the absence of final lists and continuing ambiguity over the fate of Mohammed Qahtan, a senior figure in the Islah party who has been abducted for nearly a decade.
According to sources close to the talks, the agreement, sponsored by the office of the United Nations' special envoy for Yemen and supported by the International Committee of the Red Cross, remains at this stage only a preliminary understanding, expected to be implemented within a month.
Sources familiar with the negotiations said the first clause of the agreement is limited to the release of prisoners affiliated with the Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognized government, in addition to Mohammed Qahtan. Other details of the deal, including the names of those to be included, remain subject to further bargaining and negotiations between the parties and the mediators.
The same sources stated that what has been achieved so far does not amount to a final settlement, noting that previous negotiation rounds have repeatedly been tied to complex Houthi demands. These have included the insertion of names of fighters missing on the front lines, whom the group claims are held by the government without providing evidence, as well as its repeated refusal to include abducted civilians on the grounds that they are “under judicial process.”
Circles close to the negotiations said appointing Yahya al-Razami, the Houthis’ representative on the military committee, to lead the group’s negotiating team instead of Abdul Qader al-Murtada helped create an atmosphere conducive to reaching the preliminary agreement.
They said al-Murtada, who has been accused of involvement in the torture of some detainees, was a key reason behind the failure of several previous negotiation rounds because of his hardline stance and insistence on what were described as unrealistic conditions.
The same sources added that al-Razami’s presence at the head of the Houthis’ team facilitated discussions and paved the way for agreement on the principle of a comprehensive exchange of prisoners and detainees from both sides, although this remains conditional on the Houthis’ commitment to their pledges and the sincerity of their intentions in providing accurate and reliable information about detainees.
In contrast, the Yemeni government, according to the same assessments, has voiced serious concerns that the Houthis may seek to strip the agreement of its humanitarian substance through stalling tactics or by reintroducing the same conditions that derailed previous attempts.
These indications underline that the success of the deal hinges on the Houthis’ seriousness in honoring their commitments and fully disclosing the fate of all abductees, foremost among them Mohammed Qahtan.
The fate of Mohammed Qahtan remains one of the primary obstacles to implementing the agreement. Although his name was included in the first phase of the deal, his fate has been unknown since his arrest in 2015 at a security checkpoint near the entrance to the city of Ibb. To date, the Houthis have not disclosed whether he is still alive.
According to the sources, this ambiguity has undermined previous understandings and led to the collapse of earlier negotiation rounds, after the Houthis demanded 30 prisoners if Qahtan was alive, or 30 bodies if his death was confirmed.
Officials involved in the file said such behavior raises serious doubts about his fate after more than 10 years and eight months of enforced disappearance, weakening the prospects for building the trust needed to advance the remaining stages of the exchange agreement.
The sources emphasized that the success of any prisoner exchange cannot be achieved without addressing the Qahtan case with clarity and transparency, as it represents both a humanitarian and a political issue, and a genuine test of the Houthis’ commitment to international humanitarian law.
Under the announced understandings, the deal is to be implemented in three main phases. The first phase includes the release of prisoners affiliated with the coalition supporting the Yemeni government, in addition to Mohammed Qahtan. In the second phase, which begins approximately a week later, a joint committee will be formed to conduct field visits to detention sites and document the names of all detainees related to the conflict.
The verified lists will then be submitted to the office of the UN special envoy for Yemen and the International Committee of the Red Cross for official approval and the launch of the exchange process. The third phase will be dedicated to the remains file, covering the exchange of bodies of those killed and the search for the remains of the missing in battle areas, with the aim of closing this painful chapter.
The sources stated that it was agreed upon to include a total number of individuals in the exchange from both sides, with names to be finalized within a month, as well as the recovery of all bodies from various fronts and their handover through the International Committee of the Red Cross. It was also agreed to form committees to visit prisons after the exchange and identify any remaining prisoners, in preparation for their release.
The greatest burden, the sources said, will fall on international mediators, particularly the office of the UN special envoy and the International Committee of the Red Cross, to ensure the agreement is implemented, prevent any party from circumventing it, and establish a clear timeline starting with gathering prisoners and abductees at designated points, matching lists, and setting a start date for the exchange operation.
