From Davos: The World Looks to Saudi Vision, from Reform to Delivery

The logo of the World Economic Forum at the Davos Conference Center (AFP)
The logo of the World Economic Forum at the Davos Conference Center (AFP)
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From Davos: The World Looks to Saudi Vision, from Reform to Delivery

The logo of the World Economic Forum at the Davos Conference Center (AFP)
The logo of the World Economic Forum at the Davos Conference Center (AFP)

At the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, Saudi Arabia offered a compelling account of how long-term ambition can be translated into measurable results.

Through a narrative grounded in data and outcomes, Saudi ministers traced the evolution of Vision 2030 from structural reform to disciplined execution, presenting the Kingdom as one of the world’s most attractive investment destinations.

Rising capital-formation rates now place Saudi Arabia alongside major economies such as China and India, underscoring growing international confidence in the strength and future of its economy.

On the margins of the forum, a high-level dialogue at the Saudi House pavilion brought together Princess Reema bint Bandar Al Saud, Saudi ambassador to the United States; Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih; Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan; Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim; IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva; and Lubna Olayan, Chair of Olayan Financing.

Titled From Reform to Delivery: Implementing Change at Scale, the session examined the next phase of Vision 2030 and how it has enhanced the government’s capacity for evidence-based planning and execution.

Saudi Arabia’s presence at the 2026 forum runs from Jan. 19-23 through an expanded Saudi House program - the largest since its launch - bringing together ministers, senior officials, business leaders and global thinkers.

From vision to policy discipline

Al-Jadaan emphasized that visions and reform agendas cannot be taken for granted. The true test, he said, lies not in designing strategies but in sustaining their execution, an area where many reform efforts around the world lose momentum. Saudi Arabia’s fiscal framework, supported by record foreign reserves at the central bank, has provided the flexibility needed to absorb shocks and maintain reform momentum.

He noted that 93 percent of Vision 2030’s key performance indicators have either been achieved or are progressing as planned. He added that reform has moved beyond individual initiatives to become a permanent institutional practice, supported by a 22 percent rise in financial reserves between 2022 and 2025.

He also stressed that trust and credibility are central to this process. Sustained progress depends on maintaining confidence with markets and stakeholders through pragmatic fiscal discipline and clear prioritization of resources. With fiscal space always finite, sequencing and focus are essential. He pointed to IMF Article IV consultations as a rigorous external validation of Saudi Arabia’s economic direction, noting that ambitions set a decade ago are now reflected in tangible outcomes, with hundreds of indicators either exceeding targets or firmly on track.

Converting strategy into outcomes

Building on this theme, Alibrahim said that turning strategies into results requires clarity of purpose, institutional adaptability and the ability to adjust course quickly. He explained that sustainable transformation cannot be achieved without a conscious approach to managing risk.

According to Alibrahim, Vision 2030’s long-term perspective has strengthened the government’s ability to plan, execute and respond to data, allowing it to change direction when needed while balancing risks and opportunities over both short and long horizons.

Attracting global capital

Al-Falih placed Saudi Arabia’s experience within a broader global context marked by geopolitical uncertainty, strained supply chains and rapid technological change. He noted that capital cannot avoid risk entirely but must find ways to balance it with the need for growth, particularly at a time when the world requires vast investment to navigate major transitions. These include energy digitization and the restructuring of global artificial intelligence supply chains.

He further explained that investors are increasingly drawn to markets that combine scale with access to global opportunities. This, in turn, requires skilled human capital, reliable energy, credible decarbonization pathways, advanced physical and digital infrastructure, and transparent, predictable regulatory systems. He said that few countries offer all these elements together, adding that Saudi Arabia has succeeded in doing so.

Al-Falih continued that foreign direct investment has risen to five times its pre–Vision 2030 level, while domestic investors have also increased their commitments. Capital formation as a share of GDP now matches levels seen in China and India, with visible effects across global supply chains, from shipbuilding on the eastern coast to automotive manufacturing on the western coast, as well as green and blue hydrogen projects developed with international partners.

Energy, markets and new frontiers

Al-Falih noted that the availability of Saudi capital, combined with a partnership-driven approach, has been a decisive factor. The government co-invests alongside the Public Investment Fund, major national companies and the private sector, aligning capital with strategic priorities.

While petrochemicals, fertilizers and mining remain important, the scope of transformation has broadened significantly. Saudi capital markets have become more integrated, the exchange-traded fund ecosystem has expanded, and inclusion in major global indices has lowered barriers for international investors.

At the same time, he said that the Kingdom is moving beyond its traditional role as an oil and gas supplier. It is investing in hydrogen, accelerating renewable energy localization and developing cross-border electricity interconnections with Africa, the Gulf, Iraq and Egypt. Investments in critical minerals and global supply chains now extend to joint ventures in the United States and Asia, supporting demand in a low-carbon economy. Saudi Arabia, Al-Falih concluded, also aims to position itself as a hub for the new economy, including data and artificial intelligence.

Georgieva: A transformation that inspires

Georgieva described Saudi Arabia’s reform journey as a “generational transformation” that spans sectors and places the Kingdom in a position of global leadership. Reforms that reduced the state’s direct role while enabling the private sector to flourish, she said, now underpin the country’s economic resilience.

She highlighted the breadth of diversification — from finance and tourism to sports and fashion — as particularly striking, adding that Saudi Arabia has also emerged as a partner and sponsor of reform beyond its borders, with the IMF office in Riyadh helping to share the Saudi experience with other countries. Concluding her remarks, she urged Saudi leaders and officials to maintain momentum and continue supporting others on similar paths.

Princess Reema, for her part, emphasized that human capital remains the engine of long-term growth. She said that investment in youth, job creation and a supportive social environment, encouraged many young Saudis to build their futures at home.

Lubna Olayan observed that the business landscape has undergone a notable shift. Where large corporations once dominated, small and medium-sized enterprises are now playing a growing role, supported by banks and new financing channels. She noted that economic diversification has opened private-sector opportunities, particularly in tourism, a labor-intensive service industry.

Powell: A model with global relevance

In a separate Saudi House session, Dina Powell McCormick, Vice Chair of Meta’s board, said her 25-year relationship with Saudi Arabia has given her a firsthand view of “extraordinary progress” under Vision 2030.

Recalling discussions in Washington in 2017 during her tenure as US deputy national security advisor under President Donald Trump, she described a long-term roadmap centered on unlocking the potential of a population that is more than 65 percent under the age of 35 and on the expanding role of women as entrepreneurs and leaders.

On technology, Powell said the world is approaching a pivotal moment that could reshape humanity within just three to eight years, making Saudi Arabia’s execution-focused transformation a model of growing relevance well beyond the region.



Washington Counts on Insurance Guarantees to Keep Hormuz Shipping Flowing

Oil tankers off the coast of Fujairah amid Iran’s pledge to fire on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 
Oil tankers off the coast of Fujairah amid Iran’s pledge to fire on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 
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Washington Counts on Insurance Guarantees to Keep Hormuz Shipping Flowing

Oil tankers off the coast of Fujairah amid Iran’s pledge to fire on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 
Oil tankers off the coast of Fujairah amid Iran’s pledge to fire on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters) 

In a bid to break the paralysis affecting one of the world’s most critical waterways, US President Donald Trump has proposed to provide insurance risk guarantees as a strategic tool to impose stability in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil flows.

Experts, however, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the initiative may not be sufficient to guarantee the uninterrupted movement of trade and shipping. Iran has warned that vessels crossing the strait could be targeted unless their passage is coordinated in advance.

Analysts say the Trump administration’s approach blends military power with financial engineering in an attempt to enforce stability while calming markets through US-backed insurance guarantees.

Trump announced the policy on his platform Truth Social, directing the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide guarantees for vessels operating in the area.

He also signaled that the US Navy could escort oil tankers if necessary. Details remain unclear, however, on how the DFC — an agency traditionally tasked with mobilizing private capital for development projects and reducing investment risks in emerging markets — would structure such coverage.

On Wednesday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in an interview with Fox News that the US Navy would begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz once it had the operational capacity to do so.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent similarly indicated that the navy stood ready to provide secure transit corridors for tankers if needed, with the goal of ensuring uninterrupted energy supplies and preventing disruptions to global trade routes.

Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center, said the proposed guarantees would not be enough to ensure the safe passage of commercial shipping. Washington could deploy naval escorts for oil and gas tankers or even place them under the US flag, a measure used during the Iran–Iraq War, but the risk of Iranian attacks would still persist.

He noted that Iran retains several options to target vessels, including missiles, naval mines, drones, cyberattacks and underwater strike capabilities. While the US measures might help bring some degree of stability to oil prices, he added, insurance costs for shipping are likely to remain high.

Meanwhile, more than half of the world’s major marine insurance associations have announced that they will suspend war-risk coverage for vessels entering the Arabian Gulf starting Thursday.

Such insurance typically protects shipowners and charterers from liabilities and damages caused by war, terrorism, piracy, and similar threats. Its withdrawal significantly reduces the willingness of companies to load cargo from Gulf ports.

Five days into the conflict, Sager said it remains difficult to estimate the scale of economic losses affecting trade volumes, oil flows, or shipping costs. Much will depend on the duration of the conflict and the extent of potential damage to tankers and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Saeed Salam, director of the Vision Center for Strategic Studies, said the US strategy reflects an attempt to impose what he described as forced stability in the Strait of Hormuz. By combining military deployment with financial guarantees, Washington is seeking to contain market panic and reassure shipping companies.

Yet he argued that the guarantees remain incomplete. Naval escorts may offer psychological reassurance, but they cannot fully counter asymmetric threats such as naval mines, suicide drones or anti-ship missiles.

In some cases, the escorts themselves could turn commercial tankers into legitimate military targets, increasing the risk of direct naval confrontation and potentially expanding the conflict from a regional crisis into a broader international one.

Salam added that while US intervention may help curb soaring insurance premiums, it will not eliminate what he described as a fear-driven surcharge on maritime transport. Military convoys tend to slow shipping traffic and create logistical bottlenecks, which in turn push costs higher.

He also noted that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have already declined as buyers adopt defensive hedging strategies. At the same time, war-risk insurance premiums have surged by around 300 percent, reaching about 1.5 percent of the value of each shipment and adding millions of dollars in additional costs to every tanker.

In Salam’s view, the deeper challenge lies in Washington’s attempt to substitute financial guarantees for geopolitical security. Any failure to militarily protect insured vessels could undermine the entire insurance framework and expose the US Treasury to massive compensation claims, potentially shifting the crisis from maritime chokepoints to the core of the global financial system.

 

 

 


World Food Prices Rebound in February, United Nations’ FAO Says

 A volunteer arranges iftar meals for Muslim devotees during the Islamic holy fasting month of Ramadan in Karachi on February 27, 2026. (AFP)
A volunteer arranges iftar meals for Muslim devotees during the Islamic holy fasting month of Ramadan in Karachi on February 27, 2026. (AFP)
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World Food Prices Rebound in February, United Nations’ FAO Says

 A volunteer arranges iftar meals for Muslim devotees during the Islamic holy fasting month of Ramadan in Karachi on February 27, 2026. (AFP)
A volunteer arranges iftar meals for Muslim devotees during the Islamic holy fasting month of Ramadan in Karachi on February 27, 2026. (AFP)

World food prices rose in February after falling for five straight months, as higher cereal, meat and most vegetable oil prices outweighed declines in cheese and sugar, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 125.3 points in February, up from a revised 124.2 in January.

The index was still 1% below its value a year earlier and nearly 22% below its March 2022 ‌peak, reached after ‌the start of the war in Ukraine.

Average ‌cereal ⁠prices increased 1.1% ⁠from the previous month, with wheat prices rising 1.8% due to weather risks in Europe and the United States as well as continuing logistical disruptions within the Russian Federation and the wider Black Sea region. They were still 3.5% below their level of a year earlier.

Rice prices edged up 0.4%, supported by sustained ⁠demand for basmati and Japonica varieties.

Vegetable oil prices ‌climbed 3.3%, reaching their highest level ‌since June 2022. Palm oil prices increased due to strong global demand ‌and lower output in Southeast Asia, while soyoil prices rose ‌on expected policy support for biofuel in the US.

Meat prices rose 0.8% from January, led by record prices for sheep meat and stronger demand for beef in the US and China.

Dairy prices ‌fell 1.2%, extending a months-long decline, mainly due to lower cheese prices in the European ⁠Union. However, skimmed ⁠and whole milk powder and butter prices increased on strong demand amid tight supply in key exporters.

Sugar prices dropped 4.1% to their lowest since October 2020, reflecting expectations of ample global supply, including record output in the United States.

In a separate report, the FAO slightly raised its 2025 global cereal production forecast to a record 3.029 billion metric tons, reflecting minor adjustments, mainly to maize and rice estimates. It would be 5.6% higher year-on-year.

World cereal stocks by the close of the 2026 season are also set to rise, with the global stocks-to-use ratio seen at a comfortable 31.9%.


Asia Has Limited Options to Diversify from Middle East Energy Reliance

Cargo ships and tankers are seen off coast city of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, 2026. (AFP)
Cargo ships and tankers are seen off coast city of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, 2026. (AFP)
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Asia Has Limited Options to Diversify from Middle East Energy Reliance

Cargo ships and tankers are seen off coast city of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, 2026. (AFP)
Cargo ships and tankers are seen off coast city of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, 2026. (AFP)

Asian energy buyers are scrambling to find alternatives as the Iran war creates unprecedented supply disruption, but the region has limited longer-term options to reduce its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil.

The world's top crude importing region buys 60% of its oil and petrochemical feedstock from the Middle East, where the war that started with Israeli and US attacks on Iran nearly a week ago has pushed up global energy prices and threatens to drive inflation and hurt economic growth.

Unable to receive Middle Eastern crude, refiners from China to Southeast Asia are looking for expensive alternatives that will take weeks or months to arrive, while some are cutting output.

This week, China and Thailand suspended exports of oil products while Vietnam halted crude exports, which typically go to Australia.

However, alternative sources have drawbacks including distance, refinery configurations, long-term contracts and cost.

For example, oil shipped from West Africa and the Americas takes 1-1/2 to 2 months to reach China, meaning orders need to be placed three months in ‌advance.

By comparison, it ‌takes roughly 25 days for oil to reach China via the Strait of Hormuz.

Also, switching ‌crude ⁠grades changes product ⁠yields at refineries, which must adjust their operations.

"If you put a new crude into the refinery, you have to change the cutoff points (boundaries separating crude into different products). You have to change gasoline blending. There's a lot of things you need to change. It's hard work," said Adi Imsirovic, director of consultancy Surrey Clean Energy.

"This is why diversification has been so poor in a lot of countries," he said. Energy Aspects analyst Richard Jones said some governments may seek diversification at the margins, but many Asian refiners are tied to Middle East term contracts.

"Simply put, even replacing a modest share of the roughly 16 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern crude that ⁠arrives to Asia with Atlantic basin supply is not feasible," he said.

BIG ASIAN BUYERS

In Japan, ‌which has sourced 95% of its oil from the Middle East since halting ‌nearly all Russian oil imports after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, refiners run ageing plants optimized for Middle Eastern crude.

With gasoline demand declining, refiners have ‌been wary of investing in upgrades needed to take on new sources such as Canada's heavy TMX.

Muyu Xu, senior analyst ‌at Kpler, said Japanese refiners could seek to blend lighter WTI or West African crude with heavier grades from the Americas to approximate the characteristics of Middle Eastern medium-sour.

"The caveat, however, is the logistical complexity and refinery operational risks," she said.

For the nearer term, Japan can tap a stockpile of roughly 250 days.

Top importer China has smaller reserves - roughly 78 days' worth - but a more diverse supplier profile, sourcing roughly ‌half of its oil from the Middle East including Iran, where it has been the top buyer.

China also buys from Russia despite western sanctions, as well as from mainstream producers. India, ⁠with just 25 days of ⁠reserves and reliance on the nearby Middle East for 55% of its oil, is scrambling to find alternatives, with Washington this week giving it a one-month reprieve to buy Russian oil after US President Donald Trump pressured it with punitive tariffs to curb its purchases from Moscow.

'GET SOME SOLAR PANELS'

The market for liquefied natural gas is much smaller and tighter. No.2 producer Qatar's move to halt production due to the war has had a swift impact, with India rationing gas to industrial customers.

Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said the situation could lead to fuel switching and demand destruction.

"Long term, South Asian countries could look to limit the share of gas in their energy mix and follow China's model of reliance on coal and renewables," she said.

Tim Zhang, founder of Singapore-based Edge Research, said Asia could increase the share of non-fossil fuel such as renewables and nuclear in its energy mix or diversify its conventional fuel supply.

Surrey's Imsirovic said a prolonged disruption could prompt governments to reconsider their reliance on Middle East energy entirely.

"It's going to be like the Asian Currency Crisis or something. Definitely, people will seriously have to rethink," he said.

"In sunny Asia, get some solar panels and buy an EV. End of story."