Critical minerals are no longer treated as simple raw materials traded on global exchanges. Amid increasing geopolitical competition, they have become a core element of national sovereignty, nearly as strategic as oil and gas.
The reality is increasingly clear: countries that secure access to these minerals are better positioned to protect their industrial and technological future.
As nations race to safeguard supply chains, the Future Minerals Indicators report points to a decisive shift in the sector. Highly globalized models are giving way to more regional and resilient systems designed to reduce risk and enhance security.
Within this evolving landscape, Saudi Arabia has emerged as a strategic force. By translating its geological potential into a credible investment environment, the Kingdom has entered the world’s top quartile for mining attractiveness, combining rich resources with far-reaching regulatory reform.
Released during the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, the report noted that demand for several critical minerals is rising faster than expected. This surge is driven by the energy transition, rapid digitalization, and the industries supporting them. The report also highlighted a restructuring of supply chains toward more regional models, shaped by geopolitical tensions and concerns over supply security.
Production Gains and Regulatory Reform
Jeffrey Lorsch, a partner at McKinsey & Company, said Saudi Arabia’s mining outlook is constructive and forward-looking.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, he stressed that the sector has undergone major changes in both production and regulation over the past decade.
Saudi Arabia has tripled its gold output while expanding steel and phosphate production. Lorsch said these gains were accompanied by regulatory reforms that fundamentally reshaped investor perceptions of the Saudi market.
The impact goes beyond headline figures. He noted that the Kingdom has moved into the global top quartile for mining investment appeal, reflecting improved governance, clearer regulations, and a stronger business environment.
Lorsch added that growth opportunities are concentrated in areas where Saudi Arabia holds clear competitive advantages, particularly phosphates. The Kingdom ranks among the world’s top quartile in phosphate competitiveness and cost efficiency, with additional room for expansion.
Titanium and Specialized Minerals
Lorsch also pointed to the potential to double steel production over the next 10 to 15 years, alongside promising prospects in specialized minerals such as titanium. Saudi Arabia has become one of the world’s leading exporters of titanium sponge, in addition to aluminum and other commodities.
Titanium plays a critical role in aerospace and advanced medical industries, valued for its rare combination of strength and light weight.
Globally, the report highlighted accelerating demand for minerals tied to advanced technologies. Lorsch said demand for gallium and germanium—key inputs in electronics—is growing faster than anticipated, tightening global supply-demand balances.
By contrast, some commodities, notably nickel, have seen rapid capacity expansion. Indonesia’s aggressive entry into the market through international partnerships has added substantial volumes to global supply in a short period.
Structural Challenges
Despite positive momentum, the report identified structural constraints that could limit growth. Lorsch described the shortage of skilled labor as one of the sector’s biggest challenges, particularly the difficulty of attracting qualified workers to remote sites or deep underground mines.
Infrastructure gaps remain a major hurdle, especially in regions such as South Africa, where transport and logistics networks struggle to support large-scale mining output. These shortcomings often prevent resources from being converted into sustained production.
Financing the Resource Gap
The Future Minerals Indicators report also examined the disconnect between abundant mineral resources and the capital needed to develop them. Lorsch attributed this gap partly to the traditional structure of exploration financing, long dominated by small firms raising funds in markets such as London, Toronto, and Australia.
While more exploration companies from the Global South have emerged in recent years, regulatory quality and infrastructure readiness still play a decisive role in determining whether resources evolve into viable projects.
More broadly, the report argued that change in mining extends beyond demand to the architecture of supply chains themselves, which are increasingly exposed to geopolitical risk and concentration. Governments are playing a more active role through industrial policy, investment support, and the localization of processing and refining, aiming to strengthen supply security and reduce dependence on single regions. This reflects a broader shift in how minerals are viewed—from tradable commodities to strategic assets with economic and sovereign value.
Artificial Intelligence and the Mining Cycle
On digital transformation, Lorsch remarked that artificial intelligence is reshaping the sector on two fronts. On the demand side, it is driving higher consumption of essential materials, especially copper, as electrification and digital infrastructure expand.
On the supply side, digital tools are improving efficiency and recovery rates, particularly in gold and copper mining. These technologies allow higher output, reduced capital requirements, and enhanced the value of mining-related jobs.
The report concluded that mining is entering a period of structural realignment, marked by rising demand, a stronger government role, and reconfigured supply chains. While challenges in financing, infrastructure, and human capital persist, the shift is opening strategic opportunities for countries that have strengthened regulation and improved investment appeal, at a time when a new balance between markets and states is taking shape in a sector expected to remain central to the global economy for decades.
