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A Look at the Long, Fraught Timeline of Iran Nuclear Tensions as Talks with US Loom 

A veiled Iranian woman walks past an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, 23 February 2026. (EPA)
A veiled Iranian woman walks past an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, 23 February 2026. (EPA)
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A Look at the Long, Fraught Timeline of Iran Nuclear Tensions as Talks with US Loom 

A veiled Iranian woman walks past an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, 23 February 2026. (EPA)
A veiled Iranian woman walks past an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, 23 February 2026. (EPA)

Iran and the United States are due to hold new talks in Geneva on Thursday over Tehran's nuclear program.

The talks come as America has assembled the largest fleet of warplanes and aircraft in the Middle East in decades as part of President Donald Trump's efforts to force Iran into a deal after it saw nationwide protests against its theocracy.

Here's a timeline of the tensions over Iran's atomic program:

Early days

1967 — Iran takes possession of the Tehran Research Reactor supplied by America under the “Atoms for Peace” program.

1979 — US ally Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, fatally ill, flees Iran as popular protests against him surge. Khomeini returns to Tehran and the revolution sweeps him to power. Students seize the United States Embassy in Tehran, beginning the 444-day hostage crisis. Iran’s nuclear program goes fallow under international pressure.

August 2002 — Western intelligence services and an Iranian opposition group reveal Iran’s secret Natanz nuclear enrichment facility.

June 2003 — Britain, France and Germany engage Iran in nuclear negotiations.

October 2003 — Iran suspends uranium enrichment under international pressure.

February 2006 — Iran announces it will restart uranium enrichment following the election of hard-line president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Britain, France and Germany walk out of stalled negotiations.

June 2009 — Iran’s disputed presidential election sees Ahmadinejad reelected despite fraud allegations, sparking protests known as the Green Movement and a violent government crackdown.

October 2009 — Under US President Barack Obama, the US and Iran open a secret back-channel for messages in the sultanate of Oman.

July 2012 — US and Iranian officials hold secret face-to-face talks in Oman.

July 2015 — World powers and Iran announce a long-term, comprehensive nuclear agreement that limits Tehran's enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

In this photo released by the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, center, heads to the venue for talks between Iran and the US, in Muscat, Oman, Friday, Feb. 6, 2026. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP, File)

The nuclear deal collapses

May 8, 2018 — Trump unilaterally withdraws the US from the nuclear agreement, calling it the “worst deal ever.” He says he’ll get better terms in new negotiations to stop Iran’s missile development and support for regional militias. Those talks don’t happen in his first term.

May 8, 2019 — Iran announces it will begin backing away from the accord. A series of regional attacks on land and at sea blamed on Tehran follow.

Jan. 3, 2020 — A US drone strike in Baghdad kills Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the architect of Tehran’s proxy wars in the Middle East.

Jan. 8, 2020 — In retaliation for Soleimani’s killing, Iran launches a barrage of missiles at military bases in Iraq that are home to thousands of American and Iraqi troops. More than 100 US service members suffer traumatic brain injuries, according to the Pentagon.

As Iran braces for a counterattack, the Revolutionary Guard shoots down a Ukrainian passenger plane shortly after takeoff from Tehran’s international airport, reportedly mistaking it for a US cruise missile. All 176 people on board are killed.

July 2, 2020 — A mysterious explosion tears apart a centrifuge production plant at Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. Iran blames the attack on archenemy Israel.

April 6, 2021 — Iran and the US under President Joe Biden begin indirect negotiations in Vienna over how to restore the nuclear deal. Those talks, and others between Tehran and European nations, fail to reach any agreement.

April 11, 2021 — A second attack within a year targets Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, again likely carried out by Israel.

April 16, 2021 — Iran begins enriching uranium up to 60% — its highest purity ever and a technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

Feb. 24, 2022 — Russia launches its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow ultimately will come to rely on Iranian bomb-carrying drones in the conflict, as well as missiles.

July 17, 2022 — An adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Kamal Kharrazi, says Iran is technically capable of making a nuclear bomb, but has not decided whether to build one.

In this photo released by the Iranian Presidency Office, President Masoud Pezeshkian, second right, listens to the head of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami as he visits an exhibition of Iran's nuclear achievements, in Tehran, Iran, on April 9, 2025. (Iranian Presidency Office via AP, File)

Middle East wars rage

Oct. 7, 2023 — Hamas fighters from the Gaza Strip storm into Israel, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 others hostage, beginning the most intense war ever between Israel and Hamas. Iran, which has armed Hamas, offers support to the movement. Regional tensions spike.

Nov. 19, 2023 — Yemen’s Houthi militants, long supported by Iran, seize the ship Galaxy Leader, beginning a monthslong campaign of attacks on shipping through the Red Sea corridor that the US Navy describes as the most intense combat it has seen since World War II. The attacks mirror tactics earlier used by Iran.

April 14, 2024 — Iran launches an unprecedented direct attack on Israel, firing over 300 missiles and attack drones. Israel, working with the US, intercepts much of the incoming fire.

April 19, 2024 — A suspected Israeli strike hits an air defense system by an airport in Isfahan, Iran.

July 31, 2024 — Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas leader, is assassinated during a visit to Tehran after the inauguration of reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian. Israel later takes responsibility for the assassination.

Sept. 27, 2024 — An Israeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon.

Oct. 1, 2024 — Iran launches its second direct attack on Israel, though Israel shoots down most of the missiles.

Oct. 16, 2024 — Israel kills Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Gaza Strip.

Oct. 26, 2024 — Israel openly attacks Iran for the first time, striking air defense systems and sites associated with its missile program.

A satellite image shows un‑buried tunnel entrances at Isfahan nuclear complex, in Isfahan, Iran, November 11, 2024. (Vantor/Handout via Reuters)

Trump returns and reaches out

Jan. 20, 2025 — Trump is inaugurated for his second term as president.

Feb. 7, 2025 — Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei says proposed talks with the US are “not intelligent, wise or honorable.”

March 7, 2025 — Trump says he sent a letter to Khamenei seeking a new nuclear deal with Tehran.

March 15, 2025 — Trump launches intense airstrikes targeting the Houthis in Yemen, the last members of Iran's self-described “Axis of Resistance” capable of daily attacks.

April 7, 2025 — Trump announces the US and Iran will hold direct talks in Oman. Iran says they'll be indirect talks, but confirms the meeting.

April 12, 2025 — The first round of talks between Iran and the US take place in Oman, ending with a promise to hold more talks after US Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi “briefly spoke” together.

April 19, 2025 — The second round of talks between the US and Iran are held in Rome.

April 26, 2025 — Iran and the US meet in Oman a third time, but the negotiations include talks at the expert level for the first time.

May 11, 2025 — Iran and the US meet in Oman for a fourth round of negotiations ahead of Trump's trip to the Middle East.

May 23, 2025 — Iran and the US meet in Rome for a fifth round of talks, with Oman saying the negotiations made "some but not conclusive progress."

Israeli soldiers search through the rubble of residential buildings destroyed by an Iranian missile strike in Bat Yam, central Israel, June 15, 2025. (AP)

The Iran-Israel war begins

June 9, 2025 — Iran signals it won't accept a US proposal over the nuclear program.

June 12, 2025 — The Board of Governors at the International Atomic Energy Agency finds Iran in noncompliance with its nuclear obligations. Iran responds by announcing it has built and will activate a third nuclear enrichment facility.

June 13, 2025 — Israel launches its war against Iran. Over 12 days, it hits nuclear and military sites, as well as other government installations.

June 22, 2025 — The US intervenes in the war, attacking three Iranian nuclear sites.

June 23, 2025 — Iran responds to the US attack by targeting a military base in Qatar used by American troops, causing limited damage.

June 24, 2025 — Trump announces a ceasefire in the war.

July 25, 2025 — Iranian and European diplomats hold talks in Istanbul over Iran's nuclear program.

Aug. 8, 2025 — France, Germany and the United Kingdom warn Iran in a letter that it will reimplement UN sanctions if there is no “satisfactory solution” to the nuclear standoff by Aug. 31.

Aug. 28, 2025 — France, Germany and the United Kingdom say they've started the process to “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran.

Sept. 9, 2025 — Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency reach a deal over potentially starting inspections, but questions remain over its implementation.

Sept. 19, 2025 — UN Security Council declines to stop “snapback” sanctions on Iran.

Sept. 26, 2025 — UN Security Council rejects China and Russia's last-minute effort to stop “snapback.”

Sept. 28, 2025 — UN reimposes “snapback” sanctions on Iran barring any last-minute diplomacy.

In this handout photograph released by the US Navy on February 6, 2026, Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) sails alongside Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG 121) and Lewis and Clark-class dry cargo ship USNS Carl Brashear (T-AKE 7) in the Arabian Sea, on February 6. (AFP / US Navy/ Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Jesse Monford)

New protests roil Iran

Dec. 28, 2025 — Protests break out in two major markets in downtown Tehran after the Iranian rial plunges to a record low — 1.42 million rials to one US dollar — compounding inflationary pressure and pushing up the prices of food and other daily necessities.

Jan. 3, 2026 — Khamenei says “rioters must be put in their place,” in what is seen as a green light for security forces to begin more aggressively putting down the demonstrations.

Jan. 8, 2026 — Following a call from Iran’s exiled crown prince, a mass of people shout from their windows and take to the streets in nationwide protests. The government responds by blocking the internet and international telephone calls in a bid to cut off the country of 85 million from outside influence. An ensuing security force crackdown kills thousands and sees tens of thousands detained.

Jan. 13, 2026 — Trump says he has called off any meetings with the Iranians and promises that unspecified “help is on its way.”

Jan. 26, 2026 — The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and three accompanying warships arrive in the Middle East amid Trump’s threats to attack.

Feb. 3, 2026 — A US Navy fighter jet shoots down an Iranian drone approaching the Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. Iranian fast-attack boats attempt to stop a US-flagged ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

Feb. 6, 2026 — Iran and the US hold indirect nuclear talks in Oman, with the head of the US military's Central Command also coming.

Feb. 17, 2026 — Iran and the US hold talks in Geneva while Tehran says it has temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Gulf through which a fifth of all oil traded passes.

Feb. 26, 2026 — Iran and the US are due to hold another round of talks in Geneva after Washington assembles the largest fleet of warplanes and aircraft in the Middle East in decades.

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Iran's Hormuz Leverage Wanes as US Economic Squeeze Bites

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, September 5, 2026. (Reuters)
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, September 5, 2026. (Reuters)
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Iran's Hormuz Leverage Wanes as US Economic Squeeze Bites

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, September 5, 2026. (Reuters)
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, September 5, 2026. (Reuters)

Six months after a conflict that rattled markets and pushed the region to the brink of a wider war, the tide may be turning against Iran as Washington unleashes an unprecedented economic offensive to achieve what military force could not.

After years of surviving sanctions, Tehran is now confronting one of the harshest squeezes in the regime's history, according to Iranian insiders and regional sources cited by Reuters.

A US naval blockade and tougher sanctions are curbing oil exports, ‌restricting access to foreign currency and exposing growing strains in the economy.

The campaign has led US and regional officials to wager that mounting economic pressure can force Tehran to allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies.

Their bet rests on a simple calculation: Iran is suffering more economic damage than it is inflicting. Efforts to choke off oil exports have cut state revenues, while attempts to disrupt shipping through Hormuz have not triggered the global economic shock Tehran hoped would force Washington to compromise. Energy markets have adjusted and alternative supplies have continued to flow.

Whether the pressure will force concessions remains unclear, the regional sources said. Tehran has failed to impose the costs it hoped would break Washington's resolve but has shown little sign of abandoning demands for sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and recognition of its security role in Hormuz.

Still, a new formula for resolving the standoff is now under discussion between mediators and Iran, the sources said.

Can Tehran outlast the squeeze?

Three senior Iranian sources acknowledged that Washington's campaign is becoming increasingly difficult to withstand. The latest measures have sharply restricted Tehran's ability to access foreign currency, import goods and tap global financing networks that have helped keep the economy afloat.

Iranian leaders fear a worsening economy, marked by surging prices, weaker trade and pressure on household incomes, could reignite nationwide unrest that has repeatedly challenged Tehran.

Shortages of key imports, including fuel and wheat, are becoming an increasing concern, officials said.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the strategy as a “one-two punch” combining the blockade with “the toughest sanctions in history.”

“It is going to work in Iran and we are going to collapse this regime,” he told CNBC.

For some US, Israeli and regional officials, such ‌strains strengthen ⁠hopes that economic pressure could eventually carry political consequences inside Iran by triggering unrest, widening rifts within the leadership and weakening its grip on power.

Others remain skeptical that economic and military coercion will produce a political rupture, pointing to decades of failed efforts to destabilize the regime and Tehran's willingness to suppress dissent. They argue Iran's rulers may again prove more resilient than their adversaries expect.

Resilience test

Dennis Ross, a former US negotiator, said Washington may be interpreting Iran's economic distress as evidence of strategic success when the reality is more complicated. Tehran remains determined to demonstrate it can control Hormuz, but appears to be calibrating its use of force while keeping further escalation in reserve.

The Revolutionary Guards may believe Iran can absorb the economic pain and outlast the pressure rather than compromise, ⁠Ross said.

“The Iranians have consistently surprised us in terms of their resiliency,” he added, saying he doubted economic and military pressure alone would force a retreat. Hardliners, he said, may believe they can endure and ultimately secure what they want.

Resilience may depend as much on public tolerance as Tehran's ability to absorb economic hardship, said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

“Of course, the economic squeeze raises the risk of public unrest, but for now, a wartime mentality appears to have a significant hold ⁠over the population,” said Ozcelik. “Foreign military intervention, civilian casualties and the perception of a wider civilization confrontation with a US-led order are sustaining a degree of 'Iran-first' patriotic support, tolerance or simply patience with the regime.”

The result is a more stubborn impasse than Washington may have anticipated. Economic pressure is deepening the pain, but Tehran's powerful Revolutionary Guards may see endurance, backed by the threat of escalation, as leverage rather than a reason to concede.

The key question is not whether Iran is ⁠hurting, but whether it is hurting enough to compromise before either side slips toward another confrontation, the regional sources said.

Ross said the clearest path to a deal may lie in the dispute over shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran could abandon any demand for a toll while retaining the right to charge for legitimate navigational, security or environmental services, he said.

Such an arrangement could give both sides a claim to victory, allowing Tehran to step back without appearing to capitulate.

“If you could announce that the Strait were reopened,” Ross said, “I think Trump would do a deal.”

Features

China's Memories of Mao Fade to Nostalgia 50 Years after His Death

The Great Helmsman, who died September 9 1976, is still very much a fixture in central Henan province's Nanjie -- often dubbed "China's last Maoist village". Pedro PARDO / AFP
The Great Helmsman, who died September 9 1976, is still very much a fixture in central Henan province's Nanjie -- often dubbed "China's last Maoist village". Pedro PARDO / AFP
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China's Memories of Mao Fade to Nostalgia 50 Years after His Death

The Great Helmsman, who died September 9 1976, is still very much a fixture in central Henan province's Nanjie -- often dubbed "China's last Maoist village". Pedro PARDO / AFP
The Great Helmsman, who died September 9 1976, is still very much a fixture in central Henan province's Nanjie -- often dubbed "China's last Maoist village". Pedro PARDO / AFP

The crimson flags on Nanjie village's "East is Red" Square hang limp in the sweltering summer heat as a trickle of tourists take photos with a towering statue of Chairman Mao Zedong, still gleaming white almost 50 years after he died.

The Great Helmsman, who died September 9 1976, is still very much a fixture in central Henan province's Nanjie -- often dubbed "China's last Maoist village", said AFP.

Nostalgia for Mao's egalitarian ideals is growing in China as memories of his turbulent rule fade and the country grapples with a slowing economy and inequality.

Mao, who led the 1949 communist revolution against the ruling nationalists, ushered in an era of collectivized ownership he argued would drive industry and unite the country, but his drastic policies are also blamed by historians for mass starvation and millions of deaths.

While the ruling Chinese Communist Party maintains Mao was a revolutionary hero, it publicly acknowledged after his death that his devastating Cultural Revolution was a "grave mistake" -- a verdict upheld by subsequent leaders.

In Nanjie, countless murals of the former Chinese leader are plastered around the village.

Residents still live under Maoist principles of shared ownership, while the rest of the country moved on from that economic model.

"I still revere him very much," Xie Kaiyue, a 22-year-old local university student, said of Mao, who died almost three decades before she was born.

"I think young people in the village and, actually, myself, aren't as strong-spirited as in the past... People were purer," she said.

Nearby, electric carts whisked visitors past uniform apartment blocks plastered with socialist slogans as guides explained how cooperative ownership in local enterprises funds free housing for residents.

- Party line -

Around 500 kilometers (310 miles) north, in the mountain village of Dazhai in Shanxi province, once promoted by Mao as a national model after locals terraformed its arid hills into irrigated fields, tourists reminisce about an era when the Great Helmsman dominated political and social life.

"(People) didn't have enough to eat or to wear," Li, a 64-year-old tourist from Xi'an, said of his childhood.

"But... the whole country was full of vigor, and there was a spirit of struggling with heaven, earth, and people to change every aspect of China," the retiree said.

"Of course I miss it."

Now, Dazhai is overflowing with shops selling items that support Mao's personality cult -- posters, playing cards, and crockery emblazoned with his image, and the "Little Red Book" of his quotations.

Still, references to dark chapters of his decades in absolute power are tightly censored in public discourse.

The decade-long episode instigated by Mao in 1966 saw intellectuals brutally targeted as "class enemies" and schools shuttered, setting China back for years in education and development.

Private property and land were collectivized, while economic management pushed the country to the Great Famine, which the government says killed around 15 million people, while historians estimate around 20-43 million.

In one museum, text mentioning the Cultural Revolution had been crudely scraped off signage.

"Everything you see in the public domain... is the party line. No one is allowed to deviate from this," said scholar Xu Chenggang, who was targeted as a child in Beijing during the Cultural Revolution because his father was labelled a "rightist".

Mao's face is printed on banknotes, his portrait overlooks Tiananmen Square, and his body is preserved in a mausoleum.

Every year new movies and TV shows dramatizing Mao's life beam the message of his great deeds to public.

Public discussion has been squeezed further under current leader Xi Jinping, who warns against "historical nihilism", or narratives contradicting the party's own.

"The Communist Party told people there were mistakes, but what's the meaning of 'mistake'? No one knows," Xu said.

- 'Great figure' -

The sanitized history has left space for romanticized interpretations among youths frustrated by long working hours and intense competition in education and the job market.

In December, a viral video series on Bilibili -- a platform popular with those under 30 -- argued that the 2017 movie 'Youth', which follows young performers in a military dance troupe during the 1970s, was a subtle ode to the Cultural Revolution.

The videos, which praised Mao and blamed capitalist elites for crushing the movement, were removed after gaining over 35 million views in less than a week.

"Today, there is more of a sense that the Cultural Revolution was a period of idealism, where society was fired by ideals and not by the relentless pursuit of money and material goods," said to Kerry Brown, head of the Lau China Institute in London and author of a recent book on Mao.

"This is, of course, a total fabrication," he said.

Many also credit Mao with laying the foundation for China to become a modern, technologically advanced nation, said Mobo Gao, professor of Chinese studies at Adelaide University.

"They ask, where did (today's China) come from? It came from the establishment of the PRC," said Gao, who lived through the Mao era in rural Jiangxi province.

"Who was the one who really established the PRC? It must be Mao."

In Shijiazhuang, an industrial city of seven million northeast of Dazhai, 20-year-old Wang Zhihao and his classmates posed with a giant Mao statue opposite the municipal government.

"We admire and revere Chairman Mao very much. He is a great figure," Wang said, as the sound of elderly residents singing songs praising the Communist Party drifted over from the nearby square.

"He led the founding of New China."

 

Features

Is US Military Cooperation with Ethiopia Driven by Anger over Egypt-China Rapprochement?

US President Donald Trump during his meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the sidelines of the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly in September 2018. (Egyptian Presidency)
US President Donald Trump during his meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the sidelines of the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly in September 2018. (Egyptian Presidency)
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Is US Military Cooperation with Ethiopia Driven by Anger over Egypt-China Rapprochement?

US President Donald Trump during his meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the sidelines of the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly in September 2018. (Egyptian Presidency)
US President Donald Trump during his meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the sidelines of the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly in September 2018. (Egyptian Presidency)

A US defense agreement with Ethiopia was announced days before an important visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Cairo that saw agreements and memorandums of understanding signed in several fields and coincided with joint Egyptian-Chinese air exercises.

The timing raised questions over whether Washington’s military cooperation with Addis Ababa was driven by “US anger at Cairo” and what objectives it serves amid tensions in the Horn of Africa.

The United States and Ethiopia signed a defense agreement on Aug. 21 during an official visit by an Ethiopian military delegation to Washington. Both sides described it as a strategic framework aimed at strengthening military and security cooperation, protecting national interests and securing mutual benefits.

Raafat Mahmoud, head of the African Affairs Research Unit at the Egyptian Cabinet's Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC), told Asharq Al-Awsat that Washington was seeking to rebuild ties with Addis Ababa after years of tension, particularly over the Tigray war and US criticism of Ethiopia’s human rights record.

He argued that the agreement showed Ethiopia had become part of broader US calculations involving Red Sea security, countering Chinese and Russian influence and combating armed groups in the Horn.

Ethiopian lawmaker Mohammed Al-Arusi noted that Washington views the Horn as directly linked to Red Sea security, international trade and maritime routes, while also facing terrorist threats.

“Ethiopia lies at the heart of this geography, with its demographic, political and military weight across a broad region, and it hosts the permanent headquarters of the African Union,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. Washington, he added, was not seeking a temporary stance but it is “rebuilding its position in a region where the balance of power is changing.”

US Republican and strategic affairs expert Adolfo Franco cautioned that the agreement lacks formally binding treaties and direct financial funding, adding that future defense exports remain subject to strict restrictions and case-by-case assessments, including human rights considerations.

Al-Arusi pointed to a US-Ethiopian dialogue launched in May covering economics, trade, investment, defense and security. The defense track advanced just three months later, a sequence he said showed Washington was approaching Ethiopia with long-term considerations.

Mahmoud said growing US support could strengthen Ethiopia’s negotiating position not only on water but also in its efforts to secure maritime access and expand its presence in the Red Sea region.

Recent media reports have portrayed the US-Ethiopian rapprochement as Washington’s response to Egypt’s growing ties with China, highlighted by Xi’s visit to Cairo this week.

Mahmoud countered that Egyptian-Chinese rapprochement was not new, although recent developments naturally raised sensitivities in Washington, particularly amid expanding economic and security cooperation.

In January 2026, Ethiopia and China elevated their relations to an “all-weather strategic partnership,” nearly two years after Egypt and China upgraded their ties to a “strategic partnership” in 2024.

Al-Arusi argued that Washington’s expanding partnership with Addis Ababa should not be viewed as replacing one partner with another, but rather as evidence of Ethiopia’s growing strategic value.

Former US diplomat Henry Ensher told Asharq Al-Awsat that Washington wants a security partner in the Horn and that Ethiopia is the best option given its capabilities.

While China and the United States compete in Africa, Egypt is the more important partner, he said, making it unlikely that Washington would use this approach to confront or punish Cairo.