Gold Gains on Weaker Dollar, Easing Inflation Concerns

AFP- A saleswoman adjusts gold jewelry for sale at a shop in Lianyungang_ in China's eastern Jiangsu province
AFP- A saleswoman adjusts gold jewelry for sale at a shop in Lianyungang_ in China's eastern Jiangsu province
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Gold Gains on Weaker Dollar, Easing Inflation Concerns

AFP- A saleswoman adjusts gold jewelry for sale at a shop in Lianyungang_ in China's eastern Jiangsu province
AFP- A saleswoman adjusts gold jewelry for sale at a shop in Lianyungang_ in China's eastern Jiangsu province

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a weaker US dollar and easing energy costs after US President Donald Trump suggested that the war in the Middle East could end soon.

Respite from a potential war-driven surge in inflation would likely reduce the chances of central banks raising interest rates, a positive for non-yielding gold, Reuters said.

Spot gold rose 0.7% ‌to $5,174.49 per ounce, ‌as of 0631 GMT. US gold futures ‌for ⁠April delivery rose ⁠1.6% to $5,184.

The dollar fell 0.4%, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Gold prices rose "due to the news flow from US President Trump himself, stating that there is a potential for de-escalation ... So what we could see is that potential inflation expectation starts to tone down given this dramatic fall in ⁠oil price," said Kelvin Wong, a senior ‌market analyst at OANDA.

Oil prices ‌fell by more than 5% following Trump's comments.

But, the US president ‌also warned that US attacks could rise sharply if ‌Iran sought to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

The war has effectively shut the strait, stranding tankers for over a week and forcing ‌producers to halt output as storage fills up, sending energy prices soaring.

Gold prices fell by ⁠as much ⁠as 2% on Monday as higher energy costs fanned inflation concerns and further dimmed the prospects for a near-term cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.

Investors expect the Fed to keep rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting on March 18, per CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Markets are now awaiting the US consumer price index for February, due on Wednesday, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday.

Spot silver rose 2% to $88.73 per ounce. Spot platinum gained 0.7% at $2,196.35, while palladium lost 0.3% to $1,685.01.



Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The current oil supply crisis shows there is underinvestment in oil refining as demand holds resilient, Saudi state-owned Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, Musaab Al Mulla, said on Tuesday.

Around 3 ⁠million barrels per ⁠day of refining capacity closed between 2020 and 2023, Al Mulla said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East ⁠Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

"Now we realize if you have those refineries you may have definitely mitigated the impacts of the crisis today," he said.

The war in Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure and ⁠Iran's effective ⁠closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by a US naval blockade, have removed around 14 million bpd of oil supply from Middle East producers to the global market.


OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The war in the Middle East has dented economic growth prospects worldwide, with a more severe shock likely if no effective ceasefire is agreed before 2027, the OECD warned Wednesday.

Global economic growth is now forecast to slip to 2.8 percent for 2026 if Gulf exports of oil and gas return to pre-conflict levels in the third quarter, the group of 38 industrialized countries said in its quarterly update.

Previously the OECD had forecast full-year global growth of 2.9 percent.

But if the Middle East war continues into next year, however, global growth could slow to 2.1 percent, the OECD said -- well below the average annual growth of 3.4 percent seen from 2013 to 2019, before the Covid pandemic.

"The longer the disruptions last, the larger the economic and social costs become," the group's chief economist Stefano Scarpetta said in the report.

Many countries would risk falling into recession, he noted, and a drop in investment spending -- "including in energy-intensive AI" -- would likely push up unemployment.

Sustained high prices for energy as well as fertilizer and other key products from hydrocarbon production in the Gulf would weigh especially hard on developing countries that have "higher shares of energy and food in household consumption".

Even if the war sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February ends in the coming weeks, the OECD forecast global inflation rising to 4.0 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025.

In this "time-limited disruption scenario", the group expects US growth to slow to 2.0 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2027, after growing 2.1 percent last year.

In the eurozone, where many countries are highly dependent on energy imports, GDP growth will slump to 0.8 percent this year after 1.4 percent last year, assuming a Mideast ceasefire is secured in the coming weeks.


Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May as domestic demand improved and supply chains stabilized, while business optimism remained subdued amid conflict in the region, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction, Reuters reported.

Output accelerated at the ⁠fastest pace in ⁠three months after March's downturn following the start of the Iran war, as firms cited normalizing working conditions, revived contracts and stronger local demand.

Export sales fell for a third straight month, hit by shipping disruption, higher freight and fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and stronger competition. The pace of decline eased only modestly from April's survey-record contraction.

However, supply chains improved, with suppliers' delivery times shortening for the first time in three months as ⁠firms relied ⁠more on local vendors. Backlogs of work rose for an 11th consecutive month, albeit moderately.

“Overall, the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy will continue its upward trend during the remainder of 2026," said Naif Al-Ghaith, Riyad Bank's chief economist.