Gold Eases as Firmer Dollar, Lingering Inflation Concerns Weigh

A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang in China eastern Jiangsu province - AFP
A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang in China eastern Jiangsu province - AFP
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Gold Eases as Firmer Dollar, Lingering Inflation Concerns Weigh

A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang in China eastern Jiangsu province - AFP
A saleswoman adjusts gold jewellery for sale at a shop in Lianyungang in China eastern Jiangsu province - AFP

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday, weighed down by an uptick in the US dollar and looming inflation concerns that boosted the likelihood of higher interest rates.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at $5,177.50 per ounce, as of 9:18 a.m. ET (1318 GMT). US gold futures for April delivery fell 1.1% to $5,185.20.

The US dollar index inched up 0.3%. A stronger US currency makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, Reuters reported.

"The gold market seems to be in a push-and-pull between safe-haven demand driven by the war and concerns over higher-for-longer interest rates," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Gold is often seen as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, but it does not yield interest, making it less attractive when rates are high.

On the geopolitical front, Iran fired at Israel and targets across the Middle East, while at least three ships were hit in the Gulf, demonstrating Tehran can still fight back and disrupt energy supplies despite the most intense US-Israeli strikes yet.

Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded as markets doubted whether the International Energy Agency's plan for a record release of oil reserves could offset potential supply shocks from the conflict. Higher oil prices risk stoking inflation by raising energy and transport costs across the economy.

Data showed the US consumer price index rose 0.3% in February, in line with forecasts and above January's 0.2% increase. CPI rose 2.4% in the year to February, also matching expectations.

Analysts at Standard Chartered noted it is not unusual for gold to experience downside pressure for several weeks amid a need for cash.

"We maintain our positive longer-term view and expect gold to resume its uptrend beyond near-term profit-taking," they added.

Among other metals, spot silver fell 3.1% to $85.67 per ounce, spot platinum lost 0.5% to $2,189.35, and palladium slipped 1.3% to $1,633.30.



Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Saudi Aramco: Oil Refining Has Been Underinvested

FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Saudi Aramco logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The current oil supply crisis shows there is underinvestment in oil refining as demand holds resilient, Saudi state-owned Aramco's vice president of market analysis and sustainability, Musaab Al Mulla, said on Tuesday.

Around 3 ⁠million barrels per ⁠day of refining capacity closed between 2020 and 2023, Al Mulla said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East ⁠Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

"Now we realize if you have those refineries you may have definitely mitigated the impacts of the crisis today," he said.

The war in Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure and ⁠Iran's effective ⁠closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by a US naval blockade, have removed around 14 million bpd of oil supply from Middle East producers to the global market.


OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecasts Over Mideast War Fallout

A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The war in the Middle East has dented economic growth prospects worldwide, with a more severe shock likely if no effective ceasefire is agreed before 2027, the OECD warned Wednesday.

Global economic growth is now forecast to slip to 2.8 percent for 2026 if Gulf exports of oil and gas return to pre-conflict levels in the third quarter, the group of 38 industrialized countries said in its quarterly update.

Previously the OECD had forecast full-year global growth of 2.9 percent.

But if the Middle East war continues into next year, however, global growth could slow to 2.1 percent, the OECD said -- well below the average annual growth of 3.4 percent seen from 2013 to 2019, before the Covid pandemic.

"The longer the disruptions last, the larger the economic and social costs become," the group's chief economist Stefano Scarpetta said in the report.

Many countries would risk falling into recession, he noted, and a drop in investment spending -- "including in energy-intensive AI" -- would likely push up unemployment.

Sustained high prices for energy as well as fertilizer and other key products from hydrocarbon production in the Gulf would weigh especially hard on developing countries that have "higher shares of energy and food in household consumption".

Even if the war sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February ends in the coming weeks, the OECD forecast global inflation rising to 4.0 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025.

In this "time-limited disruption scenario", the group expects US growth to slow to 2.0 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2027, after growing 2.1 percent last year.

In the eurozone, where many countries are highly dependent on energy imports, GDP growth will slump to 0.8 percent this year after 1.4 percent last year, assuming a Mideast ceasefire is secured in the coming weeks.


Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Non-oil Private Sector Activity Hits 3-month High in May

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May as domestic demand improved and supply chains stabilized, while business optimism remained subdued amid conflict in the region, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.8 in May from 51.5 in April. The 50 mark separates growth from contraction, Reuters reported.

Output accelerated at the ⁠fastest pace in ⁠three months after March's downturn following the start of the Iran war, as firms cited normalizing working conditions, revived contracts and stronger local demand.

Export sales fell for a third straight month, hit by shipping disruption, higher freight and fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and stronger competition. The pace of decline eased only modestly from April's survey-record contraction.

However, supply chains improved, with suppliers' delivery times shortening for the first time in three months as ⁠firms relied ⁠more on local vendors. Backlogs of work rose for an 11th consecutive month, albeit moderately.

“Overall, the latest PMI reading supports the expectation that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy will continue its upward trend during the remainder of 2026," said Naif Al-Ghaith, Riyad Bank's chief economist.