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Iran-US-Israel Conflict Enters Phase of Prolonged Attrition

Smoke rises from a building in Kuwait following Iranian attacks (AFP). 
Smoke rises from a building in Kuwait following Iranian attacks (AFP). 
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Iran-US-Israel Conflict Enters Phase of Prolonged Attrition

Smoke rises from a building in Kuwait following Iranian attacks (AFP). 
Smoke rises from a building in Kuwait following Iranian attacks (AFP). 

The confrontation between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other has entered a phase of mutual attrition, shifting from temporary military escalation to a sustained pattern of operations, deterrence and endurance.

According to a report released Wednesday by the Gulf Research Center, based in Jeddah, the United States is building a long-term campaign aimed at degrading Iran’s missile capabilities and restoring confidence in maritime shipping routes.

Iran, meanwhile, is relying on its geography, security infrastructure and the strategic leverage of the Strait of Hormuz to prevent its adversaries from turning operational superiority into lasting strategic stability.

Rear Admiral Abdullah Al-Zaidi, senior adviser for security and defense studies at the center and author of the report, said the crisis has entered a stage of extended confrontation.

In this phase, the US effort has shifted from merely containing the Iranian threat to reducing Tehran’s capacity to regenerate and sustain its military capabilities by targeting missiles, drones and the military-industrial infrastructure that supports them.

A War of Attrition

The report said one of the most notable developments is the expansion of the US campaign from exhausting Iranian operational capabilities to striking the broader military-industrial base.

The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff has indicated that the campaign now focuses on destroying Iran’s missile and drone capabilities and degrading its naval forces in order to safeguard freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

The report also noted that after national energy authorities in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain declared force majeure, the conflict could no longer be viewed as purely military. Its repercussions have now extended into the global energy sector.

Strait of Hormuz Pressure

Developments in the Strait of Hormuz, the report argued, show that Iran remains capable of generating significant strategic impact without formally closing the waterway. By reducing shipping traffic, raising operational risks and undermining confidence in maritime routes, Tehran can disrupt the flow of commerce without declaring a blockade.

The report added that from a Gulf perspective, the crisis is no longer simply an external escalation affecting global markets, but rather a direct challenge to national and energy securities and freedom of navigation.

Military Campaign Expands

Militarily, the report stated that the US campaign has shifted from reducing the tempo of Iranian attacks to systematically targeting the sources of Iranian military power. This includes destroying missile stockpiles and launch platforms, weakening Iran’s naval capabilities and expanding strikes to facilities involved in drone production.

Iran’s Strategic Depth

According to the report, Iran’s geography provides Tehran with natural strategic depth and a layered defensive capability. The country relies on rugged terrain, underground fortifications, tunnel networks and buried facilities to protect critical military assets.

Israeli estimates cited in the report suggest that more than 60 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers have been disabled, with operational launch platforms declining from roughly 400 to about 150.

Nevertheless, current indicators suggest Tehran is pursuing a strategy of prolonged attrition based on absorbing strikes while extending the duration of the confrontation.

Disruption Without Closure

More than 20 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz, along with roughly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade. Yet the report stressed that disrupting shipping does not require a full closure of the waterway.

Recent developments have shown that traffic can be significantly impeded without a formal blockade, it says.

The report also warned of rising risks in the strait, including the possibility that naval mines could be deployed as a direct tool of pressure.

Restoring Shipping Confidence

The contest over Hormuz is no longer solely military but also economic. The report said the central challenge now lies in persuading shipping companies and insurers to resume normal operations in the corridor.

Key Risks

Among the main risks identified are the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz crisis could evolve from a price shock into a supply crisis.

Other risks include potential direct confrontations during naval escort operations, the normalization of shipping disruption without a declared blockade, and the introduction of naval mines into the strategic equation.

The report also highlighted the continued external supply of Iranian missile capabilities, along with expanding international intelligence activity and growing cyber threats.

Outlook

The Gulf Research Center report concluded that the most likely short-term scenario is the continued disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz without a full closure, a strategy that raises operational costs while avoiding the political consequences of an openly declared blockade.

It also expected Iran’s missile-based attrition strategy to continue without a rapid collapse, given the country’s geographic advantages and defensive infrastructure, which could prolong the confrontation.

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World

Nobel Peace Laureate Defends International Justice as It Comes Under US Criticism

Former ICC judge Navi Pillay, who was awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, poses for a photograph in The Hague, Netherlands, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (AP)
Former ICC judge Navi Pillay, who was awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, poses for a photograph in The Hague, Netherlands, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (AP)
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Nobel Peace Laureate Defends International Justice as It Comes Under US Criticism

Former ICC judge Navi Pillay, who was awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, poses for a photograph in The Hague, Netherlands, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (AP)
Former ICC judge Navi Pillay, who was awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, poses for a photograph in The Hague, Netherlands, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (AP)

Navi Pillay, the South African-born jurist who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last week, told The Associated Press in an interview Monday that, as a judge, she had to see the evidence of her win before she could believe the news.

“I received the letter in writing ... so now I have read it for myself, and it’s true,” said Pillay, 85, who won the award for promoting international law at a time when the system is under attack.

Her career has ranged from defending the rights of an imprisoned Nelson Mandela to leading a panel that found that Israel committed genocide in Gaza to serving as a judge on three international courts.

“To be honored for that kind of work is tremendous, not only for me, but for all my colleagues,” Pillay said.

On the 125th anniversary of the prize’s inception, the Norwegian Nobel Committee sought “to remind the world that the rule of law, national and international, underpins the system we have set up to ensure peace and resolve conflicts nonviolently. Peace requires justice,” committee Chairman Jørgen Watne Frydnes said.

Pillay’s win is seen as a high-profile rebuke to US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who have both rejected the findings of the UN commission she led on Gaza. The leaders also have been highly critical of the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, both of which have had Pillay on the bench.

“I value the focus of the selection committee on this important area, because it does affect the whole world if the rule of law is not respected,” she said.

Pillay had sharp words for Trump, who has coveted the peace prize for years, calling Washington’s attacks on the International Criminal Court “completely unlawful” as well as “negative and cruel.”

“Heads of countries have a particular responsibility to spell out the principles, which is that you respect the law, you respect international law,” she said.

Hours after the announcement of her award was made in Oslo, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced sweeping new sanctions on the ICC, where Pillay once sat as a judge, as part of a campaign to dismantle the institution.

The octogenarian called on countries to defend the court and the international legal order more broadly, saying she would like to see “collective action, not just words” from the rest of the world.

Pillay said that impunity is unpopular everywhere and that the public wants justice. People are dismayed, she said, that powerful countries like Russia and the United States are not members of the International Criminal Court but sit on the United Nations Security Council and can reject any attempt to hold them to account.

She faced strong criticism from Israel for her work chairing a UN commission on Gaza, which concluded last year that Israel was responsible for genocide in Gaza with a specific intent to destroy Palestinians in Gaza. Pillay dismissed the Israeli response, saying only the US and Israel took issue with the conclusions.

“We just have this condemnation by the state of Israel because they are the ones that we have held responsible,” she said.

Human rights groups and many experts on genocide have reached similar conclusions.

The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Israel strongly denies the allegations.

Pillay says that while things in the world may seem challenging at the moment, she said that international law is a relatively recent development for humanity. “Justice is slow, so we must not be impatient,” she said.

But she urged people not to be complacent and to see the world a bit more like a judge would. “Don’t fall for false propaganda or just repeat slogans,” Pillay said, urging everyone to make sure they check the evidence.

World

British Airbase Plot ‘Almost Certainly Directed’ by Iran Guards, Says UK PM

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham speaks during a reception to celebrate Black History Month at Downing Street, in London, Britain, October 12, 2026. (Reuters)
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham speaks during a reception to celebrate Black History Month at Downing Street, in London, Britain, October 12, 2026. (Reuters)
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British Airbase Plot ‘Almost Certainly Directed’ by Iran Guards, Says UK PM

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham speaks during a reception to celebrate Black History Month at Downing Street, in London, Britain, October 12, 2026. (Reuters)
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham speaks during a reception to celebrate Black History Month at Downing Street, in London, Britain, October 12, 2026. (Reuters)

Britain's government Monday accused Iran's Revolutionary Guards of being behind a major scare at a UK airbase used by the United States, as allies including Washington warned Tehran against hostile acts.

Iran denied any involvement.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the British parliament that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) "almost certainly directed" an incident at the Royal Air Force base of Fairford in southwest England last month.

The US, which had been using the base for its war in Iran, abruptly withdrew all its B-1 bombers from the site last week after the mysterious episode on September 27.

Burnham said Britain's assessment of the incident was that it "is highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by Iran's Revolutionary Guard".

"We will not tolerate these threats on our soil. We will crack down on Iran's use of criminal networks, using our full range of powers to target them and their funding streams," he told MPs.

Iran's state news agency IRNA reported that "the Iranian ambassador in London, Ali Moussavi, has again categorically rejected the accusations concerning Tehran's role in the incident at the Fairford military base" and "called on the British government to present evidence supporting its allegations if it possesses any."

Shortly after Burnham spoke to parliament, 29 countries, including the US, Britain, Australia, Canada, France and Germany, released a joint statement denouncing "in the strongest terms Iran's use of violent attacks".

The statement said such attacks included "acts of lethal plotting, arson, sabotage, cyber-attacks, and other hybrid activities against us and our partners".

"Any attempt by Iran to threaten, silence, intimidate, harass, harm, or coerce people on our territories through proxies or any other means is unacceptable," it read.

The Foreign Office confirmed in its own statement Monday that Iran's ambassador to the UK had been summoned for talks.

"We are also announcing the designation of two Iranian nationals for their role in facilitating or engaging in hostile activity on behalf of the Iranian regime, with the clear intent of threatening, planning or conducting attacks overseas," foreign minister Ed Miliband said.

The foreign ministry said the individuals included Ruhollah Bazghandi, the IRGC's head of counterespionage operations, who is "now subject to an immediate asset freeze, travel ban and director disqualification".

Speculation has swirled about the incident since police were called to the base after a local farmer reported a group of men with several white vans engaged in "suspicious" activity.

- 'Major' incident -

Despite a major counter-terrorism probe, seven suspects arrested in the days following, including a British-Iranian national, have all since been released on bail. None has been charged.

The incident was declared "major" by British authorities and triggered the evacuation of a nearby village.

But the source and nature of the threat have remained shrouded in mystery.

Investigators did not find any explosives in the vans, but did recover some petrol, according to officials.

Burnham has previously said there were "strong indications that Iran played a part" in the incident, which Tehran has rejected.

Britain gave Washington permission in March to use Fairford for "specific defensive operations into Iran," and US bombers and other planes had been seen taking off and landing at the base.

US President Donald Trump has said Washington withdrew its bombers because of "threats" he believed were linked to Tehran.

In the foreign ministry statement, Miliband noted that the UK had already "designated the IRGC under our new state threats powers, and imposed major sanctions on those responsible for Iran's malign activity".

World

Fury as US Federal Agents Search Anti-Trump Lawmaker’s Home

US Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN) holds a press conference at Karmel Mall, after the fatal shootings of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents, in Minneapolis, Minnesota, US, January 28, 2026. (Reuters)
US Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN) holds a press conference at Karmel Mall, after the fatal shootings of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents, in Minneapolis, Minnesota, US, January 28, 2026. (Reuters)
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Fury as US Federal Agents Search Anti-Trump Lawmaker’s Home

US Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN) holds a press conference at Karmel Mall, after the fatal shootings of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents, in Minneapolis, Minnesota, US, January 28, 2026. (Reuters)
US Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN) holds a press conference at Karmel Mall, after the fatal shootings of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents, in Minneapolis, Minnesota, US, January 28, 2026. (Reuters)

US federal agents searched the Washington home of Democratic congresswoman Ilhan Omar on Monday as part of what officials said was a criminal investigation, marking a dramatic escalation in President Donald Trump's confrontation with the outspoken lawmaker.

Omar said she was "ok" following the operation but accused the administration of targeting political opponents just three weeks before she seeks re-election in the November 3 midterms.

The early morning search -- described by Trump's "border czar" Tom Homan as part of a longstanding probe -- was conducted by agents from Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), the investigative arm of US immigration enforcement.

"Make no mistake: this is an attempt to target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement," Omar wrote on X.

"For ten years, Trump has targeted me with baseless lies and smear campaigns. This is just the latest escalation in his campaign of political intimidation."

The operation also sparked a furious backlash from Democrats who accused Trump of abusing government powers to pursue his political opponents.

Fox News reported that the search was linked to a criminal fraud investigation concerning immigration paperwork submitted on behalf of the Somali-born congresswoman by her late father when she was a child.

The president was asked about Omar hours after the operation and said she was being investigated "very carefully."

"I've always found her to be totally crooked personally, but that has nothing to do with me. I think she's a terrible person, just a complainer. She comes from a country that is a non-country," he told reporters at the White House.

US media quoted the Justice Department confirming that agents had carried out a court-authorized search in the Washington area, but officials did not identify Omar or disclose the nature of the investigation.

Omar, 44, is a leftist Democrat and fierce critic of Trump, particularly his administration's sweeping crackdown on immigration.

The Republican president has repeatedly clashed with Omar, who came to the United States from Somalia as a child and has frequently been the target of his political attacks.

- Political backlash -

Top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries and his leadership team called the search "deeply disturbing" and raised questions about "the continued corrupt weaponization of the federal government against Donald Trump's adversaries."

Minnesota's Democratic Governor Tim Walz accused Trump of "abusing his power to go after political opponents weeks before an election."

Republican congresswoman Nancy Mace, meanwhile, said Omar should be stripped of her US citizenship and deported if fraud was proven.

"NO ONE is above the law," she wrote on X.

The timing also drew criticism from Xochitl Hinojosa, a former director of public affairs at the Justice Department.

"There's a longstanding rule at DOJ that you don't take overt actions like this before an election, especially when there's a candidate on the ballot," she wrote on X.

Omar said in September that Homeland Security officials had not contacted her about any investigation, dismissing the allegations against her as politically motivated attacks.

Omar was first elected to Congress in 2018 and represents a district including Minneapolis, home to one of the largest Somali communities in the United States.

She is a member of the group of left-wing Democratic lawmakers known as "The Squad," who have been among Trump's most vocal opponents in Congress.

No charges against Omar were announced in connection with Monday's search.