Fitch Ratings affirmed Qatar's long-term foreign-currency rating at "AA" and a "stable" outlook on Friday, saying its strong balance sheet and plans to sharply increase LNG output should help cushion the impact of the escalating Middle East conflict.
The US-Israel war with Iran has disrupted shipments from the world's most important oil artery, the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
The impact on LNG exports is likely to widen Qatar's fiscal deficit in 2026, contingent on how long the conflict lasts, but the country should be able to more easily tap debt markets or draw on its sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), which has built up assets over decades of investing at home and globally.
Fitch said it assumes the conflict would last less than a month and the strait would remain closed during that period, with no major damage to regional hydrocarbon infrastructure. Under its baseline scenario, the agency expects Brent crude to average $70 a barrel in 2026.
As LNG production increases, Fitch projects the general government budget surplus will rise to 4.1% of GDP in 2027 and exceed 7% by 2030. Excluding investment income, the budget is expected to return to surplus from 2027, with most excess revenue likely to be transferred to QIA for overseas investment.
The agency expects Qatar to meet its 2026 funding needs through a combination of central bank overdrafts, domestic and international market borrowing, and drawdowns on the finance ministry's deposits in the banking sector.
