Gold Rises as Middle East Optimism Calms Inflation Fears

Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
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Gold Rises as Middle East Optimism Calms Inflation Fears

Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)
Samples of gold displayed in a program affiliated with the Brazilian Federal Police specializing in tracking gold in Brasilia (Reuters)

Gold prices rose on Thursday as growing optimism about a possible end to conflicts in the Middle East calmed inflation worries and improved prospects for lower interest rates.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,815.15 per ounce by 0926 GMT, after rising to a one-month high in the previous session. US gold futures for June delivery gained 0.3% to $4,836.50.

"For the month of March gold was under pressure because of the need for liquidity in the metal following the war, but that is kind of mostly run its course, that need for liquidity," said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree.

Shah added that he expects gold prices to remain very well supported as concerns surrounding central bank independence and dollar debasement risk still remain prevalent, Reuters reported.

Optimism grew on Thursday that the war in the Middle East may be near an end, with a key Pakistani mediator in Tehran and the administration of US President Donald Trump talking up hopes for a deal that would open the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil prices were up more than 1% on Thursday, but remained well below the $100-a-barrel mark.

"Gold remains supported amid renewed optimism around de-escalation. The pullback in oil prices is easing some of the inflation concerns that weighed on prices earlier in the conflict. The move reflects a broader shift in market focus," ING analysts said.

Global equities vaulted past their previous all-time highs in Asian trading as optimism grew about a deal to end the Iran war.

Gold prices fell to as low as $4,097.99 an ounce on March 23 as high inflation concerns due to soaring energy prices raised expectations of a more hawkish approach to intrest rates by the US Federal Reserve, weighing on the non-yielding metal's demand.

Prices have since recovered as investors now see a more than 34% chance of at least one US interest rate cut by 2026-end, up from 32% a day prior, as per CME's FedWatch Tool.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.4% to $80.12 per ounce, platinum gained 1% to $2,130.25, and palladium was up 0.9% at $1,587.25.



Oil Set for Steepest Weekly Gain Since Mid-July, Fueled by US-Iran Clashes

A worker refuels a car at a gas station in Caracas on September 3, 2026. (AFP)
A worker refuels a car at a gas station in Caracas on September 3, 2026. (AFP)
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Oil Set for Steepest Weekly Gain Since Mid-July, Fueled by US-Iran Clashes

A worker refuels a car at a gas station in Caracas on September 3, 2026. (AFP)
A worker refuels a car at a gas station in Caracas on September 3, 2026. (AFP)

Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for their steepest weekly gain since mid-July, as rising tension and renewed US-Iran hostilities heightened concerns over Middle East supply risks.

Brent crude futures rose 54 cents, or 0.6%, to $96.06 a barrel by 0100 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 80 cents, or 0.9%, to $92.10.

On a weekly basis, Brent rose 7.6% and WTI was 10.4% higher, set for the highest gains since the week ended July 20.

US attacks this week that ‌killed and wounded ‌dozens, including Iranian civilians, marked the fiercest ‌clashes ⁠between the two countries ⁠since July. The war, which began with US-Israeli strikes in late February, is now in its seventh month.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz renewed warnings that Israel would "cripple" Iran's military and civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities.

ANZ analysts raised their Brent crude forecast on Friday to $95 a barrel in the short term, with ⁠upside risk if the Middle East conflict intensifies.

"The ‌market is entering a delicate ‌adaptation phase. Elevated inventories helped absorb the initial supply crisis, but the ‌challenge is now to keep the market balanced as ‌those buffers diminish," the analysts said.

US Vice President JD Vance told reporters on Thursday that Washington does not plan to hold talks with Iran unless Tehran stops attacking commercial shipping in the Strait of ‌Hormuz.

Capping oil's advance, however, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there remained a path to a ⁠deal to ⁠end the war in Ukraine, adding that both the US and China were prepared to support a peace settlement.

Meanwhile, Iran expanded its list of vessels it deems non-compliant and subject to fines, confiscation or detention if they attempt to transit the strait. Iraqi ships remain among the few vessels Tehran has cleared to pass through Hormuz.

Iraq increased its oil exports to around 2.34 million barrels per day in August from about 1.35 million bpd in July, two Iraqi energy officials said on Wednesday, with September exports also expected to increase as heavy discounts and Iranian approvals for Iraqi tankers encouraged buyers.


LEAP 2026 Concludes with Nearly $15 Billion in Investments, Agreements; 2027 Edition Set for April

LEAP 2026 witnessed global technology and investment momentum that strengthened the Kingdom's position as a leading center for the digital economy and artificial intelligence (AI). (SPA)
LEAP 2026 witnessed global technology and investment momentum that strengthened the Kingdom's position as a leading center for the digital economy and artificial intelligence (AI). (SPA)
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LEAP 2026 Concludes with Nearly $15 Billion in Investments, Agreements; 2027 Edition Set for April

LEAP 2026 witnessed global technology and investment momentum that strengthened the Kingdom's position as a leading center for the digital economy and artificial intelligence (AI). (SPA)
LEAP 2026 witnessed global technology and investment momentum that strengthened the Kingdom's position as a leading center for the digital economy and artificial intelligence (AI). (SPA)

LEAP 2026 concluded its fifth edition on Thursday, organized by the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), the Saudi Federation for Cybersecurity, Programming and Drones, Tahaluf, and the Events Investment Fund under the theme "Into New Worlds."

LEAP 2026 witnessed global technology and investment momentum that strengthened the Kingdom's position as a leading center for the digital economy and artificial intelligence (AI), the Saudi Press Agency reported on Friday.

Over four days at the Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center in Malham, LEAP 2026 saw announcements, investments, and agreements worth nearly $15 billion, covering AI infrastructure, data centers, cloud computing, technology manufacturing, and venture capital, along with wide-ranging initiatives to develop national capabilities and align them with labor market needs and promising sectors.

The announcements included the establishment and expansion of high-capacity data centers and the development of computing and AI infrastructure. They also included the announcement that the Microsoft Azure cloud region in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will become available in November 2026, supporting local data hosting and the growth of cloud services and digital sectors.

Al Moammar Information Systems announced a $1.2 billion investment to expand its data centers and increase their capacity to 192 megawatts, while NHC Innovation announced an $800 million investment to develop Khuzam Digital Valley, with capacity that can be expanded to 65 megawatts by 2033.

Among the major cloud investments, Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced the launch of its first cloud infrastructure region in the Kingdom in December 2026 as part of a planned investment of more than $5.3 billion. AWS also expanded its partnership with HUMAIN to provide up to 50 megawatts of capacity within the first AI zone in the Kingdom by 2028.

The collaboration includes making the ALLAM Arabic-language model available through Amazon Bedrock and providing HUMAIN Fabric through AWS Marketplace, enhancing advanced computing capabilities and enabling various sectors to develop and operate AI solutions on a large scale.

In the creative industries sector, Adobe announced a commitment worth more than $4 billion as part of an expanded partnership with MCIT and HUMAIN. By the end of 2026, the partnership will provide more than 27 million eligible citizens and residents aged 13 or older with Adobe Firefly Standard and Adobe Express Premium features free for 12 months. It also includes developing the first image-generation model using Adobe Firefly Foundry, designed in partnership with HUMAIN to reflect Saudi culture and local context and support the creation of creative content with a Saudi character through Arabic-language prompts.

At the conclusion of its proceedings, LEAP 2026 announced that the sixth edition will be held from April 12 to 15, 2027, to continue building global partnerships, attracting investment, enabling innovation and talent, and strengthening the Kingdom's leading position in the smart age.


Saudi Debt Market Gathers Pace as Sovereign, Bank and Corporate Borrowing Converges

King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) in Riyadh
King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) in Riyadh
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Saudi Debt Market Gathers Pace as Sovereign, Bank and Corporate Borrowing Converges

King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) in Riyadh
King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) in Riyadh

Saudi Arabia’s debt market is seeing growing activity as the government, banks and companies tap international markets simultaneously, highlighting their widening use of debt instruments to diversify funding sources.

The kingdom is seeking to finance budget needs and investment projects, while Saudi banks and companies are moving to strengthen their capital bases and diversify funding channels.

The latest move came from the Saudi government, which raised $3.25 billion through a two-tranche offering of US dollar-denominated Islamic bonds, or sukuk.

Al Rajhi Bank has also begun offering Tier 2 sukuk for an amount yet to be determined. Arab National Bank, meanwhile, said it had completed a $750 million Additional Tier 1 sukuk offering with an annual yield of 6.5%.

In the corporate sector, Saudi Arabian Mining Co., known as Ma’aden, raised $1 billion through its first international term loan and revolving credit facility.

The simultaneous transactions illustrate the growing importance of the debt market as an alternative to traditional financing, with Saudi issuers benefiting from international demand for dollar-denominated debt despite persistently high global borrowing costs, said Abdullah Al-Mair, assistant professor of economics at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals.

The International Monetary Fund expects Saudi public debt to reach 32.6% of gross domestic product this year, up from 29.8% in 2025, a level that remains low by global standards. The Finance Ministry forecasts the ratio at 33.9%, according to the kingdom’s 2026 budget statement.

The IMF had raised its growth forecasts for the Saudi economy for this year and next, citing its resilience in the face of global challenges, an expected improvement in oil revenue and accelerating growth in non-oil activities that have come to drive the country’s economic transformation.

Strong demand for Saudi debt

The latest sovereign issuance stands out as an indicator of investor appetite for Saudi debt instruments. Orders exceeded $16.5 billion, according to the National Debt Management Center, more than four times the $3.25 billion issue size.

The deal comprised a $1.25 billion five-year tranche and a $2 billion 10-year tranche. The final spreads were set at 70 basis points over US Treasury yields for the first tranche and 80 basis points for the second.

Al-Mair said the strength of demand reflected “a high level of confidence among international investors in the kingdom’s creditworthiness and its ability to meet its financial obligations.”

Orders exceeding four times the issue size “indicate that Saudi Arabia continues to enjoy strong access to global debt markets,” even amid high interest rates and geopolitical tensions, he said.

The kingdom’s ability to price the sukuk at relatively narrow spreads over US Treasury yields “reflects investors’ positive view of Saudi sovereign risk compared with many other emerging markets,” he added.

From government to banks and companies

Debt-market activity is not limited to government financing. Saudi banks are also turning to international markets to issue instruments that bolster their capital bases and provide additional sources of funding.

Arab National Bank said it had completed a $750 million Additional Tier 1 capital sukuk offering with an annual yield of 6.5%. The perpetual sukuk are callable after five years.

Al Rajhi Bank, meanwhile, has begun offering US dollar-denominated social Tier 2 sukuk with a maturity of 10-1/2 years and an option to redeem them after 5-1/4 years. The final size and pricing terms will be determined according to market conditions.

At the same time, Saudi companies are turning to international financing markets. Ma’aden raised $1 billion through its first international term loan and revolving credit facility in a move aimed at supporting its general needs and diversifying its funding sources.

The concurrent transactions indicate that the debt market is no longer merely a tool for financing the government deficit, but has become a broader channel for meeting the funding needs of financial institutions and companies, allowing them to reach a wider investor base and manage maturities and liquidity sources.

Borrowing rises, but debt costs pose a challenge

The moves come as part of Saudi Arabia’s 2026 borrowing plan, which aims to raise about $57.9 billion. Of that, about $44 billion will finance an expected budget deficit, while roughly $13.9 billion will be used to repay debt maturing during the year.

Al-Mair said continued borrowing would “naturally lead to an increase in public debt,” but noted that Saudi Arabia’s debt-to-GDP ratio did not exceed 33%, a level that, in his view, “remains manageable compared with many major economies.”

Continued government efforts to diversify revenue and manage maturities provide support for debt sustainability, he said, while debt-servicing costs represent the main challenge in the next phase.

“With global bond yields and interest rates remaining relatively high, new issuance and debt refinancing are becoming more expensive than in the years when interest rates were low,” Al-Mair said, warning that interest payments in the budget could rise in the coming years.

Can debt become a driver of growth?

Higher debt does not necessarily create fiscal pressure if it is used to finance investments capable of supporting growth and generating future revenue.

Al-Mair said the kingdom was directing part of its borrowing toward tourism, infrastructure and industrial projects, which could “increase non-oil revenue” and support the economy’s ability to absorb higher debt levels.

For Saudi Arabia, the issue therefore appears to be less about the volume of borrowing alone than about how it is managed, its cost and the economic return generated by its use. While the government continues to finance budget needs and projects through debt markets, banks and companies are using the same channel to strengthen their capital and diversify funding sources.

Al-Mair said demand for Saudi debt instruments at this time underscored their continued appeal to international investors, adding that “public debt is an important component in diversifying financing methods and has a clear impact on economic development.”

As the range of Saudi borrowers in international markets expands, continued demand for their debt instruments and issuers’ ability to maintain competitive funding costs will be key to determining how effectively the debt market can support the investment and spending phase associated with the kingdom’s economic transformation.