Lebanon heads into direct talks with Israel on Thursday, with little room to maneuver as positions harden on both sides. Officials in Beirut believe Israel does not want to end the war soon, while Hezbollah, fully aligned with Iran, has largely cut off contact with Lebanese authorities.
The third challenge is the US position, which appears close to “understanding” Lebanon’s stance, without fully “sympathizing” with it.
A Lebanese official source told Asharq Al-Awsat that Lebanon is pressing Washington hard to secure a real ceasefire before negotiations begin, but has not yet received answers, making that effort likely to fail.
The source said Lebanon cannot boycott the negotiations, both to avoid embarrassment with the US side, which is playing a supporting role for Lebanon, and to avoid giving pretexts to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who appears clearly unwilling to engage in the talks.
The source said the Lebanese delegation would enter the negotiating room with one issue on the table, a ceasefire, before moving into any other discussion. But the source would not say whether this could obstruct the negotiation process.
A meeting between President Joseph Aoun and Netanyahu was “not on the table”, the source said.
They added that Ambassador Simon Karam, who heads Lebanon’s negotiating delegation, had arrived in Washington and would meet separately with US State Department officials before the talks begin, in a bid to urge Washington to keep pressure on Netanyahu to secure a ceasefire.
The source said another obstacle to a ceasefire was internal and Lebanese, represented by Hezbollah’s lack of communication.
Washington had responded to Lebanon’s demand by asking what guarantees existed that the party would abide by a ceasefire if one were declared.
The source revealed that Aoun had sent questions to Hezbollah on the matter, but had received no answers. They went further, saying Aoun had invited MP Hassan Fadlallah, the new official handling the file, to visit him, but had received no response so far.
Negotiating agenda, a “truce +”
Lebanon is heading into these negotiations with a clear headline that does not end with “a peace agreement or normalization with the Hebrew state.”
Sources say the president is treating the talks as limited to measures and security arrangements that would ultimately lead to a formula resembling the 1949 armistice agreement, albeit in an updated form described by some of those close to him as a “truce plus.”
In principle, this approach includes cementing a ceasefire, followed by the withdrawal of Israeli forces to the border and a halt to attacks, after which the Lebanese army would deploy and assume responsibility for security in the south, and then across all of Lebanon.
The source concluded that Lebanon wants the negotiations to end the state of hostility, not to produce a peace agreement tied to an Arab track that has not yet matured.
Lebanon’s position is caught in a difficult place between two electoral processes. The first is Israeli, where the source does not express much optimism that Israeli operations in Lebanon will stop soon, citing Netanyahu’s clear desire to keep them going as Israel’s general elections approach.
The second is American, where Lebanon fears it could lose the attention of the US administration as elections approach, when elections in “Nevada become far more important than all the crises of the Middle East.”
Hezbollah’s weapons
As for Hezbollah’s weapons, sources say Lebanon’s vision is to “address” the issue at a later stage, based on an official view that dealing with it under military confrontation and security pressure remains unrealistic.
Any approach to it would first require stabilizing the situation and halting military operations, with a clear commitment by Lebanon to end this file in line with the provisions of the president’s oath of office, which firmly stated that no weapons should exist outside the framework of the state.
The source voiced frustration with Hezbollah’s conduct, saying the party shows no regard for Lebanon’s situation or for the heavy losses suffered by Lebanese citizens, foremost among them the people of south Lebanon.
They said many southerners have been deprived of their land and homes and forced to leave with no clear prospect of return, either because the fighting continues or because their houses may not remain standing as they are systematically destroyed in violation of norms and international conventions.
The source pointed to what he described as a striking incident on the day the ceasefire was announced, when Hezbollah fired heavy rocket barrages during the preliminary Lebanese-Israeli meeting attended by US President Donald Trump.
The Israeli delegation quickly used the news with Trump to point to the “danger posed by the party.”
A hot summer
The source fears what he describes as a “hot summer” if the negotiations become more complicated, amid a clear bet on a position by Trump that could break the deadlock and impose a ceasefire.
Growing domestic support
Inside Lebanon, support is growing for the negotiation track pursued by Aoun.
MP Mohammed Suleiman, spokesman for the National Moderation bloc, said after the bloc met the president: “We affirmed to President Aoun our full support for every path that strengthens state-building, preserves the higher national interest, and protects civil peace and national unity.”
Suleiman added that “the sovereign decisions taken by the government regarding the monopoly of arms, reclaiming authority over the decision of war and peace, and extending state authority over all Lebanese territory represent the demand of the majority of Lebanese. Implementing them lies at the heart of applying the law and respecting the constitution.”
He continued: “We called for intensified coordination with Arab and foreign countries, especially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in order to end the Israeli attacks in a formula that preserves the dignity of Lebanon and the Lebanese.”
The right track
In addition to domestic support, the track has international backing. Egypt’s ambassador to Beirut, Alaa Moussa, said after meeting Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai that he discussed the situation in Lebanon and the region with the patriarch.
“This concern greatly preoccupies His Beatitude, and we exchanged some assessments about the present and the future. I heard positive ideas from him, and confidence that the path the Lebanese state is taking is the right path and must be pursued, strengthened and given the chance to succeed in everything that serves the restoration of the Lebanese state’s sovereignty over all its territory, as it was before,” Moussa said.
He added: “We also discussed the path the Lebanese state is now taking, and we hope it will bring positive results. We can speak specifically of a round of negotiations beginning Thursday. Naturally, His Beatitude carries all positive wishes for positive results that will help achieve more accomplishments in the future.”
