OPEC on Wednesday lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, joining other forecasters in cutting expectations due to the Iran war.
But OPEC said consumption would rebound later and raised its demand growth forecast for 2027.
The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, curbing millions of barrels of Middle East output and sending fuel prices soaring. The surge is hitting consumers and businesses, and prompting government steps to conserve supplies.
World oil demand will rise by 1.17 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, OPEC said, down from 1.38 million bpd expected previously. For 2027, OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 1.54 million bpd, up 200,000 bpd from the previous forecast.
Global oil demand is expected to average 104.57 million bpd in the second quarter, down from the 105.07 million bpd forecast last month, OPEC said. The previous report had already cut the second-quarter estimate by 500,000 bpd.
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, had agreed to resume output increases from April, but the closure of Hormuz has made it impossible to deliver on the deal. The report said output fell further in April.
OPEC+ crude output averaged 33.19 million bpd in April, down 1.74 million bpd from March, the report said, citing secondary sources OPEC uses to monitor its production.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production
Meanwhile, Russia’s crude oil production went down by 107,000 bpd in April 2026 month-on-month to 9.057 million bpd, OPEC said in its report.
OPEC said Kazakhstan's oil production rose by 115,000 bpd, to 1.799 million bpd last month.
The increase was driven mainly by higher output at Tengiz, the country's largest oilfield.
Kazakhstan remained among the highest producers last month.
IAE
For its part, the International Energy Agency, which issued its report hours ahead of the OPEC report, said on Wednesday global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 million bpd on average in 2026.
It said with Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels.
Overall global oil supply will fall by around 3.9 million barrels per day across 2026 due to the war, the agency said, slashing its previous forecast, which had projected a 1.5 million bpd drop.
The IEA now sees demand falling by 420,000 bpd this year, compared to a previous forecast of an 80,000 bpd drop.
Consumption is also under pressure due to the war as price spikes lead to demand destruction and slower economic growth, it said.
“More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the report said.
With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 million bpd of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock, it said.
The Agency assumed that demand may swing back to growth towards the end of the year if a deal to end the war is agreed that allows flows through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually resume from the third quarter of this year.
