OPEC+ Decides on Fourth Oil Quota Hike Since Hormuz Closurehttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5281403-opec-decides-fourth-oil-quota-hike-hormuz-closure
OPEC+ Decides on Fourth Oil Quota Hike Since Hormuz Closure
Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
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OPEC+ Decides on Fourth Oil Quota Hike Since Hormuz Closure
Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026. (Reuters)
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday a fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months, even though the US war with Iran is still preventing several of the group's members from pumping more.
The war has cut oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, creating the world's biggest-ever supply crisis as key OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia have been unable to supply customers in full since the end of February.
Seven core members of OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allied producers including Russia, have increased their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day.
In reality, the group's production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million bpd in April compared with 42.77 million in February, according to OPEC figures.
On Sunday, the seven members decided to increase targets by 188,000 bpd from July, OPEC said in a statement.
This is the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 bpd in May and April to take into account the United Arab Emirates’ exit. The UAE left OPEC after almost 60 years.
On Friday, oil prices fell to around $93 a barrel as traders gained confidence that renewed conflict between the US and Iran was growing less likely. Prices were close to $72 before the war began.
The seven countries are increasing production as part of the gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd production cut that the group, which at the time included UAE, agreed in 2023.
The seven of 21 OPEC+ members who met on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. In recent years, only the seven plus the UAE when it was a member have been involved in the group's output policy decisions.
China’s Central Bank Extends Gold Buying Spree for 19th Month in Mayhttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5281302-china%E2%80%99s-central-bank-extends-gold-buying-spree-19th-month-may
Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
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China’s Central Bank Extends Gold Buying Spree for 19th Month in May
Gold items are displayed at a jewellery shop in downtown Kuwait City on June 6, 2026. (AFP)
China's central bank increased up its gold reserves for a 19th month in May, data from the People's Bank of China showed on Sunday.
The country's gold reserves rose to 74.96 million fine troy ounces by the end of May, versus the previous month's 74.64 million ounces
China's gold reserves were valued at $340.75 billion by the end of last month, down from $344.17 billion the month prior, according to the PBOC data.
Spot gold prices logged a third straight month of decline in May as peace talks between the United States and Iran failing to yield results.
Inflation risks following rising oil prices kept the "higher-for-longer" interest rate theme alive, with the dollar remaining elevated.
Gold continued to decline in June and was most recently traded at near $4,330 an ounce.
What is Expected from Today's OPEC+ Major Producers Meeting?https://english.aawsat.com/business/5281270-what-expected-todays-opec-major-producers-meeting
A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
What is Expected from Today's OPEC+ Major Producers Meeting?
A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28, 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Phot
All eyes turn Sunday to a series of intensive and simultaneous ministerial meetings of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance. These meetings are taking place under exceptional circumstances in global energy markets, as producers strive through these multiple platforms to lay out the foundations for a new phase of balance and strategic certainty.
Three consecutive meetings will be held today, reflecting the precise institutional nature of managing this phase. It begins with the OPEC Administrative Conference, followed by the 66th meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), responsible for monitoring compliance levels, ensuring alignment, and approving current compensation plans, culminating in the 41st ministerial meeting of the broader OPEC+ alliance—a meeting the global investment community is eagerly anticipating.
This coordinated effort is driven by positive momentum and close coordination, epitomized by the important meeting that brought together Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum a few days ago.
The meeting reflected great optimism about the alliance's ability to lead the market with a flexible vision, with discussions focusing on the following positive points:
* Securing Energy Supplies: The Saudi affirmation that the world today needs "every molecule of energy" possible, reflecting the Kingdom's and the alliance's commitment to their role as a safety valve for the global economy.
* Flexibility and Readiness: OPEC+'s high ability to adapt and confront emergent geopolitical and logistical changes, while precisely revising future demand forecasts to ensure investment sustainability.
* Preparing for the Future: Coordination between the two poles aims to prepare a solid ground for the smooth and gradual return of supply flows once temporary logistical factors in the region subside.
Expectations and Targets
Instead of focusing on transient fluctuations, observers expect today's meeting to affirm collective commitment and reaffirm full solidarity among the seven major alliance countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – to ensure long-term market stability through the approval of flexible production policies. Sources told Reuters that production targets are expected to increase by approximately 188,000 barrels per day for next July, reflecting a cautious and measured approach that allows for quick and gradual intervention options based on daily market data.
Fitch
This flexible move aligns with the in-depth analysis presented by Fitch Ratings in its latest reports. The agency affirmed that the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents "a temporary and transient logistical shock" and in no way indicates a structural or permanent shift in global oil market trends.
The agency maintained its strategic view that global supplies will collectively exceed demand throughout 2026, based on the absence of any severe damage to oil infrastructure in the region, and the exceptional ability to achieve a rapid and intensive recovery of production in the Middle East once the strait is expected to reopen by the end of next July – assuming an actual closure period of approximately five months.
According to Fitch's base scenario, the average Brent crude price will hover around $87 per barrel throughout 2026, noting that the absence of production capacity due to the temporary logistical disruption will reduce supplies by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day compared to 2025.
However, the agency anticipates a sharp market rebound towards a surplus starting in September, with the surplus (oil glut) reaching approximately 4 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2026, supported by strong growth from non-OPEC producers. This will exert downward pressure on prices, restoring the market to its natural equilibrium.
Fitch concludes that this dynamic lends significant effectiveness to OPEC+ plans, as the alliance possesses the ability to exceed previous quotas and pump additional quantities to ensure demand is met and prevent any structural shortages, solidifying the alliance's role as a strategic institution that transforms geopolitical challenges into real opportunities to support energy security, global economic growth, and sustainability.
IATA to Asharq Al-Awsat: Saudi Airlines Lead Gulf Aviation Resilience in Absorbing Shockshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5281266-iata-asharq-al-awsat-saudi-airlines-lead-gulf-aviation-resilience-absorbing-shocks
Kamil Al-Awadhi, Regional Vice President of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) for Africa and the Middle East, speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
IATA to Asharq Al-Awsat: Saudi Airlines Lead Gulf Aviation Resilience in Absorbing Shocks
Kamil Al-Awadhi, Regional Vice President of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) for Africa and the Middle East, speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Despite Gulf airlines incurring billions of dollars in losses due to recent geopolitical tensions, Saudi carriers have demonstrated exceptional resilience and an impressive ability to absorb shocks quickly. This comes amid optimistic forecasts for long-term growth in air travel across the Middle East and Africa, projected to reach 3.9% annually through 2050.
This was stated by Kamil Al-Awadhi, Regional Vice President of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) for Africa and the Middle East, in exclusive remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat.
He explained that geopolitical developments and repeated airspace closures have had a direct impact on the profitability of regional airlines, with passenger traffic among Gulf carriers declining by approximately 50% in March and 47% in April.
Nevertheless, during a media briefing held on the sidelines of IATA’s Annual General Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Al-Awadhi stressed that Saudi Arabia’s aviation sector moved at remarkable speed to restructure its operations and adapt to changing conditions.
He projected growth for the Kingdom’s aviation sector of between 3% and 5%, describing this as a positive indicator given the challenges currently facing the global airline industry.
This encouraging performance comes at a time when Al-Awadhi warned of the continuing global problem of blocked airline funds, with the Middle East and Africa accounting for the largest share of such trapped funds, estimated at nearly $740 million.
A logo of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) is displayed, in Geneva, Switzerland, April 28, 2026. (Reuters)
Rio de Janeiro meeting
Al-Awadhi's remarks were made on the sidelines of IATA's 82nd Annual General Meeting and the accompanying World Air Transport Summit, which is being hosted in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro.
This event is the most prominent fixture on the global civil aviation industry's annual calendar. It brings together leaders and representatives from more than 330 member airlines of the IATA, which account for approximately 80 percent of global air traffic, alongside monetary and political decision-makers, suppliers, and airport and air navigation regulators from around the world.
Critical timing and key issues
The Rio de Janeiro meeting is being held at a time when the global aviation industry is facing an exceptionally complex operating environment.
Key items on the agenda include the impact of geopolitical conflicts on international air corridors, the resilience of global supply chains for aircraft and spare parts, as well as sustainability initiatives and the transition to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in pursuit of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The gathering also traditionally features the release of IATA’s updated economic outlook, including its projections for the global airline industry's profits or losses.
Investors closely monitor the report as a key indicator of regional market performance, particularly in the Middle East, which serves as a vital aviation hub connecting East and West.
Al-Awadhi speaks at a press briefing in Rio de Janeiro. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Impact of geopolitical tensions on the sector
Al-Awadhi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the repercussions of the recent crisis have led to repeated airspace closures, higher fuel costs, and weaker travel demand in certain markets.
Around 10 countries were forced to close their airspace, some for periods of up to 70 days, causing widespread disruption to air traffic across the region, he revealed.
Gulf airlines were particularly affected due to the suspension of certain flight routes and disruptions to transit traffic through major aviation hubs. As a result, they have yet to return to the operating levels seen before last February, he added.
Despite these challenges, Al-Awadhi stressed that the long-term outlook remains positive for both Africa and the Middle East.
He explained that passenger traffic in the Middle East is projected to grow by 3.5 percent annually under the high-growth scenario through 2050, and by 3.1 percent under the baseline scenario. Africa, meanwhile, is expected to record annual growth of between 3.2 percent and 3.9 percent over the same period.
“The Middle East represents a success story in resilience and recovery, while Africa remains a major growth opportunity that has yet to be fully realized,” he remarked.
Blocked funds
On another issue, Al-Awadhi warned that the crisis of blocked airline funds remains unresolved, noting that Africa and the Middle East account for approximately 98 percent of all blocked airline funds worldwide.
He said that the total value of trapped funds in the two regions stands at about $740 million out of a global total of $756 million. Algeria tops the list with around $160 million in blocked funds, followed by Lebanon with approximately $139 million, and Mozambique with about $87 million.
The biggest challenge lies in the depreciation of local currencies, coupled with the fact that airlines are unable to freely repatriate substantial amounts of their revenues, he added.
The situation in Lebanon is somewhat different, as the Lebanese currency has lost a significant portion of its value as a result of the country's economic collapse, he noted.
An ITA Airways aircraft stands on the tarmac as another aircraft approaches Rome's Fiumicino airport, as European airlines monitor higher jet fuel costs and supply concerns linked to tensions in the Middle East, in Fiumicino, Italy, June 6, 2026. (Reuters)
In Algeria, large sums remain trapped in the banking system, and airlines may have to wait up to a year before they can access those funds. During that period, the local currency may depreciate against the US dollar, eroding part of the airlines’ revenues and profits when the funds are eventually converted, Al-Awadhi said.
He added that airlines have already incurred expenses for fuel, maintenance, airport charges, and air navigation fees long before they are able to recover their revenues, placing additional financial pressure on carriers operating in those markets.
Challenges facing African airlines
Al-Awadhi pointed out that African airlines continue to face challenges related to weak profitability and high operating costs, including expenses for fuel, taxes, infrastructure charges, and aircraft financing and leasing.
The aviation environment across the continent is gradually improving, but that the pace of reform remains slower than required, he noted.
He called on governments to adopt more supportive policies for the sector and to recognize its role in stimulating economic growth and creating jobs.
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