Lebanon Caught between US, Iran in Reclaiming its Independent Decision-making

 Lebanese army soldiers carry the coffin of captain Elie Khoury, who was killed on Saturday in an Israeli airstrike, during his funeral procession in Kfar Jarra, southern Lebanon, Monday, June 8, 2026. (AP)
Lebanese army soldiers carry the coffin of captain Elie Khoury, who was killed on Saturday in an Israeli airstrike, during his funeral procession in Kfar Jarra, southern Lebanon, Monday, June 8, 2026. (AP)
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Lebanon Caught between US, Iran in Reclaiming its Independent Decision-making

 Lebanese army soldiers carry the coffin of captain Elie Khoury, who was killed on Saturday in an Israeli airstrike, during his funeral procession in Kfar Jarra, southern Lebanon, Monday, June 8, 2026. (AP)
Lebanese army soldiers carry the coffin of captain Elie Khoury, who was killed on Saturday in an Israeli airstrike, during his funeral procession in Kfar Jarra, southern Lebanon, Monday, June 8, 2026. (AP)

Iran’s attack on Israel in retaliation to Israeli strikes on Sunday on Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, carried several messages.

It was seen as an attempt to reinforce its claim over Lebanon as a bargaining chip in its confrontation with the United States and Israel that it can use in the ongoing negotiations in Pakistan.

It remains to be seen if Iran has succeeded in seizing the initiative in this file and tie Lebanon’s stability to its own negotiations with the US, or if the attack deepened the Lebanese state’s drive to separate the Lebanese file from the Islamabad talks and further pursue the US-sponsored negotiations with Israel.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun openly slammed Iran last week for using Lebanon as a “bargaining chip” in its negotiations with the US and demanded that it cease interfering in its internal affairs. Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, has been adamant that Lebanon be included in the Pakistan negotiations, putting it at odds with the Lebanese state.

Head of the Saydet El Jabal Gathering, former MP Fares Souaid noted that since 1969, Lebanon has witnessed several conflicts between foreign powers over usurping the country’s independent decision-making and holding negotiations on its behalf with or without consulting it.

The Palestinian Liberation Organization tried to do so decades ago, then it was followed by the Syrian regime, under Hafez al-Assad, that imposed hegemony over Lebanon for several years and now, the country finds itself in the Iranian sphere of influence, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“The Lebanese state, represented by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, has now succeeded in reclaiming the initiative for the first time since 1969,” Souaid added.

This has been achieved with evident US support after Washington realized the importance of separating the Lebanese file from Iran and preventing Tehran from negotiating in its name, he went on to say.

“Iran has been trying to claim that the Lebanese negotiations with Israel are a farce and that Lebanon will be unable to achieve its demands, or impose an Israeli withdrawal without it. Iran has been claiming that it alone will be able to achieve this [for Lebanon], but it will fail,” stressed Souaid.

This handout photograph taken and released on June 9, 2026 by Pakistan's Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) shows Pakistan's Army Chief and Field Marshal Asim Munir (R) speaking with General Rodolphe Haykal, Commander-in-Chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces during their meeting in Rawalpindi. (Handout / Pakistan's Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) / AFP)

The Iranian embassy in Beirut posted on its social media an image of two clasped hands, with one covered with the Lebanese flag and the other the Iranian one, and the statement “always with you” in Lebanese dialect.

The post sparked hundreds of comments in support and criticism from users about Iranian and Lebanese interests.

Souaid noted the “sharp division in Lebanon between one camp that wants the country to be a mere bargaining chip for Iran, and another that wants to consolidate the authority of the Lebanese state and its independent decision-making.”

“The state is committed to its independent decision-making, while Iran is trying to usurp it through sparking a war in Lebanon and exploit the Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs as if to say that it alone holds the keys to the solution,” he added.

“Iran will not succeed in reclaiming Lebanon’s decision-making or again impose its authority over the country,” he stressed.

Army commander in Pakistan

Amid the developments, Lebanese army commander Rodolphe Haykal was in Islamabad at the invitation of his Pakistani counterpart Asim Munir .

The military has not revealed details about the visit.

An informed source confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that he was visiting at his counterpart’s invitation and that the trip was coordinated with President Aoun.

Pakistan has expressed its readiness to offer assistance to the Lebanese army in terms of its deployment in the South after the Israeli withdrawal, it said, noting that Islamabad enjoys the trust of the Americans, Iranians and the Israelis given its role in the mediation efforts between the US and Iran.



Kushner to Hold Talks with Netanyahu after Rare Meeting with Hamas

FILE - Jared Kushner waits to walk into the ring after the lightweight championship bout at UFC Freedom 250 on the South Lawn of the White House, June 15, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)
FILE - Jared Kushner waits to walk into the ring after the lightweight championship bout at UFC Freedom 250 on the South Lawn of the White House, June 15, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)
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Kushner to Hold Talks with Netanyahu after Rare Meeting with Hamas

FILE - Jared Kushner waits to walk into the ring after the lightweight championship bout at UFC Freedom 250 on the South Lawn of the White House, June 15, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)
FILE - Jared Kushner waits to walk into the ring after the lightweight championship bout at UFC Freedom 250 on the South Lawn of the White House, June 15, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet Donald Trump's envoy and son-in-law Jared Kushner on Monday, a day after he held a rare meeting with Hamas officials in Cairo, in a bid to push forward the US president's Gaza peace plan.

A diplomatic source said Hamas leader Khalil Al-Hayya was present at some of the meetings ‌that mediators held ‌with Kushner and Trump's Board ‌of ⁠Peace envoy for ⁠Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov, in Cairo on Sunday, said Reuters.

It marks Kushner’s second known meeting with representatives of Hamas, the Palestinian militant group designated a terrorist movement by the United States.

Kushner previously met Hamas officials alongside US envoy Steve ⁠Witkoff in October 2025, helping clinch ‌a deal that ‌led to a ceasefire in Gaza and the ‌release of remaining hostages seized by Hamas in ‌the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel.

Trump said in late July a deal was reached for the complete disarmament of Hamas and other ‌armed groups in Gaza.

But Netanyahu, who is seeking re-election at ⁠a ⁠vote due in October, has publicly rejected Trump's plan.

Trump had said the deal would be carried out in phases, with Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza as disarmament proceeded and an International Stabilization Force working with a new Palestinian police force to secure the enclave.

Hamas has said it agreed to the plan but the deal's implementation would depend on Israel first meeting its own commitments, including withdrawal and halting attacks.


Al-Burhan’s Agreement to Conditional Dialogue Sparks Debate in Sudan

 Chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council and Commander of the Sudanese Army Abdel Fattah al-Burhan delivers a speech at the presidential palace in Khartoum. (SUNA)
Chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council and Commander of the Sudanese Army Abdel Fattah al-Burhan delivers a speech at the presidential palace in Khartoum. (SUNA)
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Al-Burhan’s Agreement to Conditional Dialogue Sparks Debate in Sudan

 Chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council and Commander of the Sudanese Army Abdel Fattah al-Burhan delivers a speech at the presidential palace in Khartoum. (SUNA)
Chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council and Commander of the Sudanese Army Abdel Fattah al-Burhan delivers a speech at the presidential palace in Khartoum. (SUNA)

The agreement by Chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council and Commander of the Sudanese Army Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to launch intra-Sudanese dialogue has sparked debate among political forces in the war-torn country.

The questions raised went beyond whether to take part or boycott, but to whether political dialogue held during war can stop the fighting and unify the country, or will it just be confined to regions held by the army.

Burhan declared last week that he was agreeing to an initiative to form an independent national mechanism that would prepare “comprehensive dialogue”. He vowed to provide legal, security, political and logistic guarantees for the participants, saying no foreign powers would be involved.

While agreeing to the dialogue, al-Burhan also rejected peace that would return the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its supporters to power.

Peace begins with the RSF laying down its weapons, otherwise the army will continue its operations against it, he warned.

Prime Minister Kamil Idris said on Sunday that his government wants to restore peace and preserve Sudan’s unity.

He also added that the RSF should be designated a terrorist organization, vowing that the army will not be lenient with its forces.

Lawyer Nabil Adib, who was part of the committee that proposed the dialogue, told local media that his committee does not aim to end the war, but reaching political consensus.

He hastily added, however, that that “ending the war may be one of the outcomes of the dialogue if the participants agree to it.”

His statements reveal a dilemma: if the dialogue participants reach a consensus demanding an end to the war, implementing it would require the approval of both warring parties. Should the RSF remain outside the process, the dialogue may succeed in producing a political stance against the war, but it lacks a mechanism to enforce a ceasefire.

Adib notably kept the door open to members of the RSF-aligned Sudan Founding Alliance (Tasis) to take part in the dialogue. The alliance includes political and armed factions that are opposed to the army.

“Alliance parties that do not carry weapons can take part in the dialogue,” he confirmed.

The pro-army Democratic Bloc welcomed the dialogue initiative, saying it was a step forward in “resolving the crisis through national political means”.

On the other side of the divide, the Somoud civilian alliance, led by former PM Abdalla Hamdok, rejected any dialogue held while the war rages.

In a statement, it said that any “political process - independent of the warring parties - must start with an end to the war and addressing the humanitarian catastrophe.”

It warned against holding dialogue in areas held by the army, saying it would “consolidate the unofficial division” of Sudan.

Sudan’s People's Liberation Movement-Revolutionary Democratic Current (SPLM-RDC), led by Yasir Arman, said the current crisis “goes beyond the war.”

It is tied to building the state and the presence of several armies and militias in the country, it noted in a statement. It warned against dialogue that does not address the root causes of the crisis.

The National Umma Party demanded dialogue that includes all segments of society, except for the National Congress Party.

Umma Party leader Mubarak al-Fadil al-Mahdi called for an end to the fighting, as well as national reconciliation and negotiations over security arrangements that would lead to the unification of the army.

He echoed warnings that holding the dialogue in army-held regions would consolidate divisions in the country and fuel the fighting.

The army believes that excluding the RSF from power is a refusal to grant political legitimacy to a force that took up arms against it. However, the RSF’s continued control over parts of the country will undermine any constitutional or governmental arrangements produced by the dialogue in areas under its authority.


Egypt Warns Ethiopia against Plans to Control Nile River Flows

The Ethiopian national flag is seen at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, Ethiopia, Feb. 19, 2022. (AFP)
The Ethiopian national flag is seen at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, Ethiopia, Feb. 19, 2022. (AFP)
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Egypt Warns Ethiopia against Plans to Control Nile River Flows

The Ethiopian national flag is seen at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, Ethiopia, Feb. 19, 2022. (AFP)
The Ethiopian national flag is seen at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, Ethiopia, Feb. 19, 2022. (AFP)

An official Egyptian source warned on Sunday Ethiopia against plans to control the flows of the Nile River to downstream countries, in the latest tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

The official made the warning in wake of Ethiopia’s Minister of Water and Energy Habtamu Geleta saying that his country may build more dams on the river, effectively controlling its flow to Egypt and Sudan.

The source said Egypt has “several means at its disposal and is capable of defending the interests of its people when it comes to the Nile,” reported the state news agency MENA.

“Egypt will not accept or allow any party to control the Nile’s flow to downstream countries,” he declared.

Diplomats and observers told Asharq Al-Awsat that Ethipoia’s comments prove that the construction of the dam aimed to apply political pressure on Cairo and was not a development project as it had claimed.

The dispute over the Nile goes back 15 years since Ethiopia began constructing the dam and which it inaugurated around a year ago. Egypt fears that the dam will impact its share of the river water, which is vital for the people.

Arab and local media reported Geleta as saying that his country “will control the flows of the Nile” and that it is “determined to build more dams as part of its right to the fair use of its waters and achieve sustainable development.”

The Egyptian source, however, slammed the statements as more evidence of Addis Ababa’s unilateral actions and violation of international law.

They reflect its “delusions about its ability to impose control over a river it shares with others,” he added.

He warned that the statements are “dangerous” because they reveal an intent to impose a status quo on the ground and impose monopoly over a joint international water source.

“Ethiopia is using its geographic location to threaten the water rights and interests of downstream countries in violation of international law. Egypt will not allow it,” he vowed.

Cairo had previously declared before the UN Security Council that it will resort to all means at its disposal to protect the rights of people to the Nile, he noted.

‘Several options’

Salah Halima, former Assistant Foreign Minister and Deputy Chairman of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, said Cairo has “several options” at its disposal to protect its interests.

It can again resort to the Security Council and demand measures to resolve conflicts in line with Chapter 6, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Failure to comply, means it can resort to Chapter 7, which would then view the GERD as an act of aggression and a threat to human life, which demands self-defense, he added.

Chapter 6 calls for resolving disputes peacefully through negotiations and mediations, while Chapter 7 allows the Security Council the authority to impose measures through military and non-military means to preserve international peace and security.

Halima said Ethiopia’s latest statements demonstrate that the construction of the GERD was politically motivated to pressure Egypt.

The dam has already caused damage to Sudan where water levels are low, he noted.