IEA Sees Gradual Hormuz Recovery Tipping Into Significant 2027 Surplushttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5285164-iea-sees-gradual-hormuz-recovery-tipping-significant-2027-surplus
IEA Sees Gradual Hormuz Recovery Tipping Into Significant 2027 Surplus
Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 16, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer
The world oil market will recover gradually from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz before tipping into a significant surplus in 2027, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday.
The US and Iran reached an agreement to end the three-month-old war, which includes Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the US lifting its naval blockade, potentially bringing an end to the largest oil supply disruption in history which shut in over 14 million barrels per day of Middle East oil output, according to the IEA.
"If the deal holds, exports and production from the Gulf should see a gradual recovery – not least because Iranian oil exports can fully resume once the US blockade is lifted," the agency, which advises industrialized countries, said.
The oil market will then enter a significant supply overhang next year, the IEA said in its first look at 2027, with global oil supply set to surge by 8 million bpd and demand rising by just 2 million bpd.
"This may provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, or to build new strategic reserves, as countries review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis."
A shop attendant displays pairs of gold bracelets for Chinese weddings during a media preview of the Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group flagship store soft opening, in Hong Kong, China, February 11, 2026. (Reuters)
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Gold Gains with Fed Rate Decision in Spotlight
A shop attendant displays pairs of gold bracelets for Chinese weddings during a media preview of the Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group flagship store soft opening, in Hong Kong, China, February 11, 2026. (Reuters)
Gold prices ticked up on Wednesday as oil prices eased, while market participants looked ahead to the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, with a rate hike largely priced in.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,328.39 per ounce, as of 0310 GMT, after scaling a more than one-month low on Monday. US gold futures for December delivery were down 0.9% at $4,369.50.
"A hawkish Fed could pull gold down, while any soft messaging may ease bets on hikes and help the metal recover. Traders are also monitoring oil prices and developments in the Middle East," said Frank Walbaum, a market analyst at trading platform Naga.com.
Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Oil prices fell after an unexpected build in US crude inventories, while investors assessed supply risks after Saudi Arabia suspended oil loading at its Yanbu port.
Traders are pricing in a 92.4% chance of at least a 25-basis-point US rate hike later in the day, according to CME FedWatch. The policy decision will be followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
On the geopolitical front, Saudi Arabia air defenses destroyed a Houthi drone south of Makkah before it entered prohibited airspace over the holy city, a spokesperson for the Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen said.
Commerzbank said it was somewhat surprising that gold prices had not come under greater pressure so far. It noted that gold's resilience may be supported by persistent fiscal concerns, reflected in elevated long-term government bond yields, as well as a recent rise in US political risks.
Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.5% to $64.60 per ounce, platinum edged 0.7% higher to $1,788.25, while palladium gained 1.6% to $1,309.80.
Saudi Cement Companies Balance Investment Gains, Demand Prospectshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5318873-saudi-cement-companies-balance-investment-gains-demand-prospects
Saudi Cement Companies Balance Investment Gains, Demand Prospects
Saudi Cement Company’s factory. (Saudi Cement Company)
Saudi Arabia’s listed cement companies maintained high profitability in the first half of 2026 despite wide disparities in performance and differing sources of growth. Combined net profit stood at about SAR 1.1 billion ($293.9 million), down a modest 2.4% from a year earlier, while the sector recorded profit growth in the second quarter.
The results show that cement and clinker sales were not the only drivers. Investment income, gains from the revaluation and disposal of some underused assets, and tighter control of expenses and financing costs supported several companies. Those farther from major demand centers faced greater pressure from transportation and logistics costs, financing burdens and excess production capacity.
While major producers, led by Yamama Cement Co., Saudi Cement Company and Eastern Province Cement, continued to lead sector profits, the results raise a more important question for the period ahead: To what extent do these profits reflect a sustainable improvement in operating activity, and how much have they benefited from investment and non-recurring items?
Thirteen companies posted first-half profits. Yamama Cement led with net profit of SAR 265.39 million, up 0.88% from SAR 263.08 million a year earlier. Saudi Cement followed with SAR 202.2 million, down 0.88% from SAR 204 million, while Eastern Province Cement ranked third, with profit rising 12.8% to SAR 141 million from SAR 125 million.
Second-quarter net profit for the sector reached SAR 508.7 million ($135.7 million), up 2.27% from SAR 497.4 million ($132.6 million) a year earlier. Nine companies reported profit growth, seven posted declines, while Al-Jouf Cement Company deepened its net losses.
Mohamed Hamdy Omar, CEO of G.WORLD, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the results presented a mixed picture: While the overall figures demonstrate the resilience of financial buffers and the ability of leading companies to adapt, they also reveal wide operational and structural disparities across the sector.
Omar identified four main factors supporting first-half profits, led by non-operating items. Cement and clinker sales were not the sole drivers of profitability, with gains from the fair-value revaluation of investments and capital gains from the disposal of some underused assets also supporting results.
Riyadh Cement Company plant. (Riyadh Cement Company)
He cited Yamama Cement as a prominent example, saying it benefited from the sale of equipment from the old plant’s production lines, as well as investment income.
Spending efficiency and financing-cost management also supported major companies. Saudi Cement and Eastern Province Cement reduced selling and distribution expenses and controlled financing costs, helping limit pressure on profit margins.
Companies based in Riyadh and the Eastern Region also benefited from proximity to major demand centers and projects, Omar said. The accelerated implementation of infrastructure projects and urban expansion provided operating volumes that helped them better absorb cost fluctuations.
Performance gap
Companies farther from major demand centers faced greater operational and logistical challenges. Omar pointed to an approximately 96.4% decline in Tabuk Cement Company’s profit and deeper losses at Al-Jouf Cement, attributing this to higher transportation and logistics costs and heavier financing and debt-servicing burdens among highly leveraged companies or those with lease-based financing structures.
Omar noted that the gap underscored the importance of geography and company size in determining competitiveness, particularly in a market characterized by excess production capacity and uneven regional demand.
He cautioned that relying on asset sales or investment portfolio revaluations to support profits was temporary and could not guarantee sustainable growth.
The real test would be a recovery in domestic demand and improvement in average selling prices per ton, he added.
Lower interest rates could ease debt-servicing burdens, potentially improving net margins and providing greater liquidity for rehabilitation and expansion.
Omar noted that mergers and acquisitions could become a more pressing strategic option as the performance gap between large and small producers widens, helping companies strengthen pricing power, reduce administrative and general expenses and address excess production capacity.
The ability to sell surplus production in neighboring regional markets will remain crucial in the second half, he stressed, alongside energy costs and feedstock-use efficiency.
Oil Slips on US Stock Build, Middle East Disruptions Limit Losseshttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5318867-oil-slips-us-stock-build-middle-east-disruptions-limit-losses
An oil tanker sails near the oil hub at the port of Fos-Lavera at sunset near Marseille, southern France, September 15, 2026. (Reuters)
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Oil Slips on US Stock Build, Middle East Disruptions Limit Losses
An oil tanker sails near the oil hub at the port of Fos-Lavera at sunset near Marseille, southern France, September 15, 2026. (Reuters)
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, retreating after a two-day rally following an unexpectedly large build in US crude inventories, while supply disruptions in the Middle East lingered.
Brent crude futures fell 73 cents, or 0.67%, to $108.02 a barrel at 0450 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were down $1.1, or 1.04%, at $104.73 a barrel.
Both benchmarks settled more than $3 higher and at their highest levels since May 19 on Tuesday.
US crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories all rose last week, market sources said on Tuesday, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.
Crude inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels in the week ended September 11, the sources said, citing API data. That compared with analysts' expectations for a draw of about 1.6 million barrels, according to a Reuters poll.
API's data showed unexpected builds in gasoline and diesel inventories have weighed on prices, but regional stock increases do not change the underlying tightness in the global crude market, Haitong Futures said in a note.
Despite the inventory pressure, prices remained resilient as traders focused on disruptions to physical supplies, said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova, in a report on Wednesday.
European diesel futures rose to a record high on Tuesday, further highlighting tightness in fuel markets as Middle East disruptions constrained crude and product flows.
Visible vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz remained in the single digits at four on Tuesday, down from seven a day earlier, preliminary shipping data showed on Wednesday, falling well short of the 10-day average of 18.
The drop in traffic through the waterway that handled a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply before the US-Israeli war on Iran started comes after attacks in the region intensified.
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