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Berri on Lebanese-Israeli Framework Agreement: ‘I Saw Civil Strife in it’

An Israeli tank maneuvers amid destroyed structures in Lebanon, after Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement following US-mediated talks, as seen from northern Israel, June 27, 2026. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
An Israeli tank maneuvers amid destroyed structures in Lebanon, after Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement following US-mediated talks, as seen from northern Israel, June 27, 2026. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
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Berri on Lebanese-Israeli Framework Agreement: ‘I Saw Civil Strife in it’

An Israeli tank maneuvers amid destroyed structures in Lebanon, after Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement following US-mediated talks, as seen from northern Israel, June 27, 2026. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
An Israeli tank maneuvers amid destroyed structures in Lebanon, after Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement following US-mediated talks, as seen from northern Israel, June 27, 2026. REUTERS/Amir Cohen

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri coupled his opposition to the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement with a call for calm in the streets, even as he sharply escalated his political objection to it.

Sources in the "Shiite duo," made up from Hezbollah and the Berri-led Amal Movement, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Lebanese speaker was taken by surprise by the agreement’s content and had not seen it in advance.

They said he learned of the deal from media reports, and had not been consulted beforehand or officially briefed afterward.

Asked by Asharq Al-Awsat whether he had reviewed the agreement, Berri said: “I read it ... and I saw civil strife in it.”

“O people of Lebanon, all of Lebanon, this is sedition,” Berri later said in a statement, quoting a well-known saying attributed to Imam Ali ibn Abi Talib: “In times of sedition, be like the young camel — neither strong enough to be ridden nor able to give milk.”

Lebanese politicians read Berri’s words as a call for restraint. Several AI-generated interpretations of his meaning also circulated, including one saying that Berri’s use of the phrase “carries a message urging the Lebanese not to be dragged into internal strife or any escalation that could lead to clashes among the country’s people, while stressing the need to preserve civil peace and avoid becoming tools in the conflict.”

Sources in the Shiite duo said the authority that signed the agreement must contain its fallout and correct the “grave error.”

They said the agreement’s content was intended, among other things, “to let Israel blow up the US-Iranian agreement by blowing up the Lebanese battlefield.”

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Arab World

Iraq’s PM Sends Positive Signals Ahead of Trump Meeting

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi during his meeting with Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Kazem Al-Sadeq in Baghdad (Government media)
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi during his meeting with Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Kazem Al-Sadeq in Baghdad (Government media)
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Iraq’s PM Sends Positive Signals Ahead of Trump Meeting

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi during his meeting with Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Kazem Al-Sadeq in Baghdad (Government media)
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi during his meeting with Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Kazem Al-Sadeq in Baghdad (Government media)

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has been sending positive signals to Washington ahead of a planned mid-July visit, as analysts say his government is trying to reorganize ties with the United States based on an economic and security partnership while preserving relations with Iran.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington had recently received good and constructive signals from the Iraqi government on armed factions, in a reference to efforts to place weapons under state control and disarm armed groups.

In his latest remarks carried by state media, al-Zaidi urged armed factions to “preserve their history after contributing to the fight against terrorism, and to work through the state,” renewing his government’s rejection of “weapons outside official institutions.”

Al-Zaidi said his government sought a “strong economic partnership” with the US, while stressing that Baghdad’s ties with Tehran were “based on good neighborliness, respect and common interests, as is our relationship with all countries of the region.”

“Iraq does not accept dictates from any party, and the decision will always be made according to the interests of Iraqis first,” he said, adding that his government’s strategic direction was built on “a strong partnership with the US, starting from Iraq’s interest, and not at the expense of any other party.”

He said Iraq “does not follow a policy of blocs or hostility, and wants to be a space for communication and stability, not an arena for conflict,” in a reference to US-Iranian competition in Iraq.

On Iraq’s regional ties, al-Zaidi said the “Gulf Arab states represent a historical, cultural and social depth and a source of strength for Iraq.”

Balancing Iran

Al-Zaidi’s expected visit to Washington comes as Baghdad seeks to reshape its relationship with the US while maintaining balanced ties with Iran, amid regional shifts that followed this year’s Israel-Iran war.

Iraqi researcher Muhanad Seloom said al-Zaidi “is clearly seeking a strong partnership with the US at all levels,” calling the approach “good.”

Seloom said there was popular support for fighting corruption and restricting weapons to the state, giving the government the basic tools to move ahead despite the complexity of the issue of militias.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Seloom described Iranian as “negative.” He added that it was not in Iraq’s interest to enter into hostility with Iran, and that the US understood the special nature of Baghdad’s relationship with Tehran.

The ‘project to eliminate militias’

Political science professor Talib Muhammed Karim said al-Zaidi “is not going to Washington carrying a project to eliminate militias in the military sense, but rather a project to strengthen the state and restore its legitimate monopoly over the use of force.”

Karim told Asharq Al-Awsat that the wager was to build an internal consensus, backed by regional and international support, that would allow weapons to be gradually restricted to the state under the law.

He said Iranian influence was not confined to the security sphere, but extended to political, economic and social ties built up over more than two decades.

Reducing that influence, he said, would not come through a political decision or external pressure alone, but through stronger Iraqi state institutions, a more diversified economy and broader Arab and international partnerships. That, he said, would automatically reduce the impact of any outside influence.

Karim said the success of the Washington visit “will not be measured by whether there is a confrontation with armed factions,” but by Iraq’s ability to secure US and international backing for the state project, attract investment, strengthen the economy and expand security cooperation in ways that reinforce state sovereignty.

A shifting US view

Political science professor Abbas Abboud Salem offered a different reading, saying Iraq’s political system “cannot be reduced to the will of one person.” The post-2003 political scene, he said, is built on multiple competing political forces.

Salem told Asharq Al-Awsat that the silence of these forces does not mean they have given al-Zaidi a mandate to radically change Iraq’s policy.

What has changed most, he said, is the US view of Iraq. According to Salem, Washington moved from direct occupation to managing Iraq after the withdrawal as a zone of influence balanced with Iran, and then to seeking a return through direct influence amid regional geopolitical shifts.

Salem said these shifts were pushing Iraq to rebuild its alliance with the US in response to regional challenges and to reduce losses as the regional order is being reshaped.

Arab World

Hezbollah Links Ceasefire Stance to Iran Track

Hezbollah supporters wave flags during a march marking Ashura in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)
Hezbollah supporters wave flags during a march marking Ashura in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)
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Hezbollah Links Ceasefire Stance to Iran Track

Hezbollah supporters wave flags during a march marking Ashura in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)
Hezbollah supporters wave flags during a march marking Ashura in Beirut’s southern suburbs (EPA)

Israeli escalation in southern Lebanon has slowed, but not stopped, as Hezbollah seeks to cement a two-track position: declaring commitment to the ceasefire while documenting Israeli violations.

The latest came Saturday, when Israel struck the outskirts of Nabatieh. The Israeli military said it targeted Hezbollah members who had approached its positions.

Despite continued Israeli strikes in the South and drone flights over Beirut’s southern suburbs, Hezbollah said after a strike near Zawtar al-Sharqiya that it remained committed to the ceasefire. It called the Israeli army’s actions a “flagrant violation” of the agreement and said it was documenting all Israeli breaches.

Hezbollah part of the Iranian track

Political writer Harith Suleiman said Hezbollah’s insistence that it remains committed to the ceasefire, while documenting Israeli violations, “does not reflect a position within the Lebanese track, but falls within the framework of understandings underway between Iran and the United States.”

He said the group was acting as part of that track.

“Hezbollah wants Iran, not Lebanon, to negotiate on its behalf,” Suleiman told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“It is trying to make Lebanon part of the negotiations between Iran and the United States, and to present the ceasefire as part of an understanding between America, Israel and Iran, not as part of the Lebanese track.”

“When Hezbollah says it is committed to the ceasefire while Israel is violating it, it is effectively sending a message to Iran. It is saying: The agreement we are part of is being violated, and you, together with the United States and Israel, must act. That is why Hezbollah is part of the Iranian track, not the Lebanese track.”

Commitment tied to Iran talks

Suleiman said Hezbollah’s documentation of violations, coupled with its repeated commitment to calm, pointed to the continued existence of negotiation channels between Tehran and Washington.

“As long as negotiations between the Americans and Iranians are going well, Iran does not need Hezbollah to create a problem to improve its negotiating position. That is why Hezbollah is committed to calm and to the agreement. But if Iran decides to open a front or create a crisis, Hezbollah will be ready to move in that direction.”

Asked about the Hezbollah secretary-general’s Ashura speech, Suleiman said: “There is a difference between ideological rhetoric and operational conduct. Deals and understandings are built on practical steps, not slogans or ideological positions. What determines the actual course is what happens on the ground, and that remains tied to what Iran wants and decides.”

Hezbollah abides by what Iran agrees to

Retired Brig. Gen. Yarub Sakher said Hezbollah’s stated commitment to the ceasefire, alongside its documentation of Israeli violations, showed that its decision was tied more to Iranian understandings than to the Lebanese-Israeli negotiation track.

“When Hezbollah says it is committed to the ceasefire, it is sending a clear message that it abides by what Iran agrees to,” Sakher told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“During negotiations with the United States in Switzerland, Tehran reached an understanding to halt military operations and attacks on different fronts, including the Lebanese front. That is why Hezbollah is declaring its commitment to this track.”

“This position is not tied to the ongoing Lebanese-US-Israeli negotiations, which may lead to consolidating the ceasefire or to later security arrangements. It is meant to entrench the Iranian view.”

Documenting violations: building a case for escalation

Sakher said Hezbollah’s announcement that it was documenting Israeli violations “does not change the reality, because these violations are documented daily by the Lebanese state and the Lebanese army, and are also monitored by surveillance systems and satellites.”

“The documentation itself is not new, but it carries political significance.”

“Hezbollah is using this documentation to build a narrative it can use later if Iran decides to reopen the front. It would then say it showed strategic patience for a long time, documented the violations and remained committed to the ceasefire before justifying any new escalation.”

“This is exactly what it did before the latest confrontation, when it spoke of months of restraint before moving to military action.”

“There are Lebanese forces influenced by Hezbollah’s position that are betting on a US-Iranian understanding and, in practice, trying to give that track precedence over the Lebanese negotiation track.”

“At the same time, the US administration is treating the separation between the two files with a degree of political oversimplification, despite attempts by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to address this gap.”

Arab World

UN: Yemen Bears World’s Highest Burden of Populations Trapped in Famine

The food security outlook for Yemen through the end of 2026 remains highly alarming (local media)
The food security outlook for Yemen through the end of 2026 remains highly alarming (local media)
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UN: Yemen Bears World’s Highest Burden of Populations Trapped in Famine

The food security outlook for Yemen through the end of 2026 remains highly alarming (local media)
The food security outlook for Yemen through the end of 2026 remains highly alarming (local media)

The food security outlook for Yemen through the end of 2026 remains highly alarming, with 53% of the population projected to face crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase3+), a UN agency warned this week.

In its Yemen Market and Trade Bulletin, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said Yemen currently bears the world’s highest burden of populations trapped in the severe acute food insecurity classification (IPC Phase 4), a global early-warning indicator that the country is on the verge of famine, requiring urgent humanitarian intervention to prevent mass starvation.

Also, FAO said the presence of isolated pockets of extreme food insecurity conditions are already emerging.

“Yemen's structural food system collapse is driven by a critical convergence of localized instability, severe funding shortfalls (only above 14% funded as of June), and regional geopolitical shocks,” the FAO report warned.

It said although the intense conflict is likely to ease, regional disruptions and its lingering impacts are expected to continue for some time to come.

FAO affirmed that protracted trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and volatile fuel costs will continue to exert upward pressure on domestic transport, food, and agricultural inputs.

“Without immediate, multi-year funding and the full restoration of humanitarian access, a slide into extreme food insecurity situation remains a risk,” the UN agency said.

Economic Fragility

FAO said that in May 2026, the Yemeni rial in government-controlled areas held stable month-on-month at 1,553 riyal per US dollar representing a notable 63% year-on-year strengthening.

It said while this stability temporarily buffers local markets and lowers imported food costs, the fiscal situation remains highly fragile due to critically depleted foreign reserves and high exposure to global market shocks.

The UN agency also found that the Minimum Food Basket (MFB) rose 2% month-on-month, though it remains 27% lower year-on-year and 9% below the three-year average.

However, household food access is still severely constrained by weak purchasing power, irregular salaries, scarce income opportunities, and the lingering effects of inflation.

Fuel costs surged 11 to 15% month-on-month in May, tracking 10–21% above three-year averages despite remaining 5–11% lower year-on-year.

FAO said this sharp uptick is renewing severe financial pressure across transport, food distribution, milling, agricultural inputs, water trucking, electricity generation, and overall household expenses.

In return, labor trends were mixed in May. “Agricultural wages rose 3% month-on-month and remained 19% above the three-year average, while non-agricultural casual wages dipped 2% month-on-month and stayed 11% below May 2025 levels,” the agency’s report found.

“This indicates strong seasonal support for farm labor but persistent weakness in broader income opportunities,” it added.

And while staple food prices remained broadly stable in May, FAO said rising fuel, transport, shipping, and global commodity costs threaten to renew upward pressure.

Decrease of Wheat Imports

FAO said wheat and flour imports fell 28% month-on-month but remained 22% higher year-on-year.

It noted that while fuel imports more than doubled from April, they were still 68% below May 2025 levels and 63% below the three-year average, signaling a partial recovery rather than supply normalization.

Meanwhile, Terms of Trade (ToT) improved for agricultural laborers and livestock owners but weakened for casual laborers.

The report said month-on-month, agricultural labor-to-cereal ToT rose by about 2%, goat-to-cereal by 6%, and sheep-to-cereal by 9%, while off-farm labor-to-cereal ToT fell by about 3%.

Although all indicators remain above May 2025 and three-year averages, the positive welfare impact is limited for households lacking regular work, stable income, market access, or livestock assets.

The UN agency also showed that driven by pre-Eid demand and higher transport costs, livestock prices increased by 7–10% month-on-month in May.

“While prices remained 10–13% below May 2025 levels, they tracking 17–19% above the three-year average, keeping meat expensive for consumers but improving sale returns for livestock-owning households,” it said.

The report concluded that the presence of a dual exchange rate regime in Yemen, governed separately by Houthi-held areas and those under the government-controlled areas, led to a noticeable disparity in food prices.

It said although prices in government-controlled areas might appear to be 'twice as high as in Houthi-held areas' in local currency, the prices when converted to US dollars are nearly equivalent, and at times slightly higher in Houthi-held areas.