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Turkish June Monthly Inflation at 0.99%, Matches Forecast

Workers deliver water bottles to a restaurant next to Galata bridge on a summer day in Istanbul, Türkiye, June 26, 2026. (AP)
Workers deliver water bottles to a restaurant next to Galata bridge on a summer day in Istanbul, Türkiye, June 26, 2026. (AP)
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Turkish June Monthly Inflation at 0.99%, Matches Forecast

Workers deliver water bottles to a restaurant next to Galata bridge on a summer day in Istanbul, Türkiye, June 26, 2026. (AP)
Workers deliver water bottles to a restaurant next to Galata bridge on a summer day in Istanbul, Türkiye, June 26, 2026. (AP)

Turkish consumer price inflation matched expectations in June, with annual inflation easing to 32.11% after two months of faster price growth, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Friday.  

The monthly reading was 0.99%, matching a Reuters poll forecast, while the ‌annual rate ‌was also in ‌line ⁠with economists' expectations of ⁠32.1%.  

Consumer prices had risen 1.71% month-on-month in May, while annual inflation stood at 32.61%.  

The data also showed the domestic producer price index rose 1.80% month-on-month in June ⁠for an annual increase ‌of 28.09%.  

Ahead ‌of the data, ING said that if ‌June inflation confirmed that disinflation had ‌resumed, the central bank could restart weekly repo auctions and bring the weighted average cost of funding closer to ‌the 37% policy rate.  

Türkiye's central bank raised its end-2026 ⁠inflation ⁠forecast to 24% from 16% in its quarterly inflation report published in May, saying the short-term inflationary effects of the Iran war would remain "pronounced".  

Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan has said the duration of regional tensions and any disruption to energy supplies would be key to assessing the inflationary impact. 

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Business

EU Trade with US Hits Record High Despite Tariff Tensions, Study Shows

Transshipment containers stacked at the Westhafen container terminal in Berlin, Germany, 01 July 2026. (EPA)
Transshipment containers stacked at the Westhafen container terminal in Berlin, Germany, 01 July 2026. (EPA)
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EU Trade with US Hits Record High Despite Tariff Tensions, Study Shows

Transshipment containers stacked at the Westhafen container terminal in Berlin, Germany, 01 July 2026. (EPA)
Transshipment containers stacked at the Westhafen container terminal in Berlin, Germany, 01 July 2026. (EPA)

Trade in goods between the European Union and the US reached a record €875 billion ($1.00 trillion) last year despite tariffs, but the figures mask significant economic damage, notably to Germany's auto sector, a study published on Friday found.

The research by the German Economic Institute, or IW, found a 7.7% rise in EU exports to the US to €580 billion, while US imports into the ‌EU climbed 2.2% ‌to €295 billion, pushing the EU's trade surplus to nearly €285 ‌billion.

The ⁠report attributed some ⁠of the increase to front-loading of exports ahead of tariffs that took effect in April and said European manufacturing had suffered.

"This first impression is misleading," said IW economist Samina Sultan.

EU car and parts exports to the US fell 20.4% in 2025, with Germany, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of EU auto exports to the United States, posting an 18.9% drop.

Ireland bucked ⁠the trend with a 52.7% surge in exports, driven by ‌tariff-exempt pharmaceutical and chemical products.

Most EU ‌member states recorded a decline in their goods exports to the US Apart ‌from Ireland only the Czech Republic (+5.1%), Italy (+7.2%), Denmark (+10.6%) and Finland (+10.8%) reported growth.

TRANSATLANTIC ‌SERVICES ALSO HIT A RECORD

Transatlantic services trade also hit a record €865 billion, though the EU ran a €178 billion deficit in that category.

"The transatlantic trade relationship is therefore much more balanced, when considering both goods and service trade," the study ‌said, contrasting the EU deficit in services and the surplus in goods.

Intellectual property fees - covering software licenses, patents and ⁠trademarks - accounted ⁠for more than 40% of EU service imports from the US, rising 13.7%.

Although the services sector has so far avoided the impact of US tariffs, the trade conflict has had a negative effect.

EU imports of travel services from the US fell by around 8%. "This decline is likely attributable to the reduced number of European tourists in the US last year," said co-author Galina Kolev-Schaefer.

The study said the Turnberry trade deal between the EU and the US asymmetrically benefited the US, but still it was a workable solution that should be honored by both sides.

"New tariff threats would cause new uncertainty that only hampers business activities on both sides of the Atlantic," the IW said.

Business

Oil Prices Little Changed ahead of Long US Weekend as Peace Efforts Hold

FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo
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Oil Prices Little Changed ahead of Long US Weekend as Peace Efforts Hold

FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo

Oil prices were little changed on Friday before a long holiday weekend in the US, as traders held on to hopes that attempts to secure peace in the Middle East between the United States and Iran would succeed.

Brent futures climbed 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $71.87 a barrel as of 0737 GMT. West Texas Intermediate was down 6 cents, or 0.09%, to $68.63 a barrel.

US markets will be closed on Friday ahead of the US Independence Day holiday on Saturday. During the prior session the two benchmarks hit their lowest levels since before ‌the US-Israeli ‌war on Iran began in late February. Brent for ‌the ⁠week was down ⁠0.16% and WTI down 0.87%, the smallest weekly movements for both in months.

“It's a case of guarded optimism, with the market wanting to believe the peace efforts will hold, but it’s still hedging its bets until it sees real evidence on the water,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

SOME SHIPPING RESUMES THROUGH THE STRAIT

Some shipping ⁠has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, as called ‌for under the initial deal between ‌Iran and the United States, but levels of uncertainty are high after the ‌two countries exchanged strikes last weekend following an Iranian attack on a ‌cargo ship.

As the availability of supplies grows, the market structure has turned from backwardation to contango, reflecting decreasing expectation of future shortages.

The spread between front-month Brent and one-month forward <LCOc1-LCOc2> turned negative on June 24, while the six-month spread <LCOc1-LCOc7> turned negative on Thursday.

"The return of this supply coincides with continued SPR releases," ING analysts said in a note on Friday, referring to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The cheaper near-term supplies could encourage buyers, they added, which could support prices.

Business

World Food Prices Ease for Second Month in June, UN's FAO Says

Shop-owners display wares at the newly renovated historical Empress Market in Karachi, Pakistan, 01 July 2026. (EPA)
Shop-owners display wares at the newly renovated historical Empress Market in Karachi, Pakistan, 01 July 2026. (EPA)
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World Food Prices Ease for Second Month in June, UN's FAO Says

Shop-owners display wares at the newly renovated historical Empress Market in Karachi, Pakistan, 01 July 2026. (EPA)
Shop-owners display wares at the newly renovated historical Empress Market in Karachi, Pakistan, 01 July 2026. (EPA)

World food prices edged lower in June as declines in sugar, cereals and dairy outweighed increases in vegetable oils and meat, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday. 

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 130.3 points in June, down from 130.8 points in May. 

The index had already fallen in May from a ‌three-year high in ‌April, when the Iran war led ‌to ⁠a jump in ⁠vegetable oil prices. 

The June reading was 1.7% higher than a year earlier but 18.7% below a record peak in March 2022 after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the FAO said. 

The cereal price index fell 3.5% from May. Wheat prices were pressured by rapid harvest ⁠progress and strong supply prospects in the Black ‌Sea region, while maize ‌slipped on ample South American supply prospects and weaker crude ‌oil. 

The FAO's rice index, however, rose 3.2%, ‌supported by stronger Asian demand for Indica rice. 

Sugar prices fell 5.7% as lower ethanol prices in Brazil encouraged mills to use more sugarcane to make sugar. But concerns over the ‌potential impact of El Niño on production in India and Thailand curbed the overall ⁠decline. 

Dairy ⁠prices declined 1.5%, pressured by increased supply. 

On the upside, the FAO's meat index rose 0.4% from the prior month to set another record, led by poultry amid strong global demand. 

Vegetable oil prices jumped 3.8%, driven by higher palm and rapeseed oil quotations, partly due to biodiesel demand. 

In a separate report, the FAO forecast global cereal production in 2026 at 2.983 billion metric tons, little changed from its previous monthly estimate. 

The estimate was 1.9% below the 2025 peak but would still be the second-largest on record.