Climate change was not treated with the level of international seriousness it deserved, even though discussions about it began as early as the 1990s. For many years, it was regarded largely as a theoretical issue, until the world witnessed climate change becoming an undeniable reality.
Its consequences can now be seen with the naked eye and heard in the tragic events that dominate the news: catastrophic floods in winter and massive wildfires in summer.
In reality, experiencing the effects of climate change firsthand is entirely different from watching an international climate summit discuss its threats and the financing needed to manage the crisis. It therefore seems that climate change is entering a new phase in how it is perceived and addressed, no longer as a distant threat but as a lived global reality.
The recent wave of wildfires across the Maghreb is a clear example. This is not a phenomenon unique to the current summer; rather, it has been developing for years, with fires growing in both frequency and scale. This confirms what numerous studies have long warned: that the Maghreb is among the most vulnerable regions in the Arab world and the Middle East to climate change. One major reason is its location within what is known as the Mediterranean climate “hotspot,” where temperatures are rising approximately 20 percent faster than the global average, according to experts.
Due to its geographical location, the region has experienced successive years of severe drought, affecting the agricultural sector, which relies heavily on rainfall and rain-fed farming. Water scarcity has become a profound challenge in North Africa, where freshwater shortages are particularly acute.
The region is ranked among the 33 countries facing severe water stress, and freshwater resources are projected to decline by as much as 40 percent by the end of the century. This means that, in the coming decades, the region could face fundamental questions about the most essential element of life: water. Such a scenario, God forbid, could materialize if the water crisis is not confronted with urgency, determination, and effective solutions.
At the same time, while wildfires have intensified this summer, the Maghreb has also endured harsh winters marked by devastating floods.
The important development today is that climate change has revealed its full force in the Maghreb, making it imperative for the countries of the region to act in a practical and effective manner. National plans to address water scarcity and climate change remain slow compared with the pace and intensity of climate-related threats confronting the region.
Addressing climate change is also extremely expensive. Most Maghreb countries lack the financial resources needed to implement their climate strategies, many of which include large-scale desalination projects that require substantial investment.
The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, including its impact on wheat and oil prices, have further strained public finances. This helps explain why funding allocated to climate-related projects remains below what is required.
As climate change continues to intensify, its social costs will also rise. Unemployment is likely to worsen and poverty to increase, as climate change disproportionately affects the most vulnerable segments of society.
Discussion of climate change in Europe, the Maghreb, and the wider world is no longer what it was in the past. This summer, French, Spanish, and Maghreb populations alike felt the sting of climate change firsthand. One important lesson is that, because climate change is inherently a regional and transboundary challenge, addressing it through regional cooperation is often more effective. If the Maghreb genuinely seeks to mitigate the natural, social, economic, and even existential consequences of climate change, then the response must be regional and encompass the entire Maghreb.
While efforts to achieve political integration in the Maghreb have largely failed over nearly four decades since the idea of a Maghreb union emerged, the pressing challenges of wildfires, floods, declining freshwater resources, and energy security are issues that directly affect daily life and basic living conditions. These shared challenges may succeed where political initiatives have failed, creating a pathway toward regional cooperation through the urgent need for climate action.
Today, the region faces a real and growing threat that demands solidarity, coordinated strategies, shared resources, and the effective use of each country’s strengths to confront common challenges collectively. Such cooperation would make regional solutions more achievable and effective.
This solidarity may not materialize today, but it is likely to emerge in the years ahead, just as the threats posed by climate change, poverty, and natural disasters continue to advance with increasing speed.
Can climate threats succeed in repairing what politics has broken in the Maghreb?
