Europe’s Central Bankers Fear More Turbulence in Testy US Relations

US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh takes a break in the rain with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey during the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic symposium, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, US, August 28, 2026. (Reuters)
US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh takes a break in the rain with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey during the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic symposium, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, US, August 28, 2026. (Reuters)
TT

Europe’s Central Bankers Fear More Turbulence in Testy US Relations

US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh takes a break in the rain with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey during the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic symposium, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, US, August 28, 2026. (Reuters)
US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh takes a break in the rain with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey during the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic symposium, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, US, August 28, 2026. (Reuters)

Europe's central bankers are leaving an annual getaway with their US counterparts far from reassured that long-standing norms in global cooperation remain intact and worried that more turmoil is ahead for an already testy relationship with Washington, sources familiar with the discussion said.

Federal Reserve policymakers went out of their way to ease their counterparts' concerns this week, promising to honor all of their commitments.

But, given the separation between the central bank and the administration, they could offer no guarantees against sudden policy shifts by President Donald Trump, more than half a dozen officials on the sidelines of the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium said.

Recent US Treasury interventions to prop up the Japanese yen and to lower longer-term US borrowing costs were particularly concerning as they foreshadowed more intervention and breaks with norms, the officials, who asked not to be named, said.

After the August 1 yen transaction, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the Treasury had sold euros for the Japanese currency and said he reassured central banks in the region that the move was "just a reallocation of resources." On Friday, he said that the foreign exchange assets to buy yen came from the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund.

But European officials were especially annoyed the ‌US did not give them ‌a customary heads-up that euro sales were part of the transaction, the sources said.

"That was infuriating," one ‌of them ⁠said. "You always pick up ⁠the phone and give heads-up."

"The message to me is that the US does whatever it wants."

Others were more forgiving and said the transaction was so unusual that it may have been an honest oversight.

Spokespeople for the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve declined to comment.

A US official said the US-Japan intervention was undertaken to counter disorderly movements in the yen and to support stability in global financial markets.

"It was not directed at anyone else," the official said. "Treasury maintains close and ongoing communication with our international counterparts, but we do not comment on the operational details of those discussions."

DEBT BUYBACK CONCERNS

The sources also said that Bessent’s plan to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds -- transactions that may need to be financed by issuance of more shorter-term maturities -- was also a concern to European central bankers because, like the yen purchase, ⁠it indicates the administration was willing to take unusual measures to cap borrowing costs.

"These interventions normally offer just ‌temporary relief," a second source said. "But they are clearly worried. So what is next? Will they put ‌pressure on the Fed to start buying bonds on the market?"

While the Fed is the sole US monetary policymaking body, independent in that mission by design from the elected administration, ‌the sources said Trump has shown he is willing to go to extraordinary lengths to get his will across.

Their concern was that this ‌could then set off upheaval in markets that would go far beyond the US.

The US official responded by repeating earlier statements that the increased long-end bond buybacks were aimed at providing greater liquidity in longer-dated sectors where Treasury gets high-quality buyback offers.

"They are not monetary policy or an effort to impose a cap on interest rates," the official said.

On Thursday, however, a US Treasury official had told reporters the Treasury was "really focused on bringing those long-end yields lower" because they had risen above what the department viewed as "fair value."

SWAP ‌LINES AT RISK?

Another of the Europeans' worries was that political meddling could eventually involve the dollar liquidity backstops provided by the Fed to the world's biggest central banks, considered a cornerstone of global financial stability, some of the ⁠sources said.

These swap lines ensure that ⁠commercial banks around the world retain their access to US dollars, especially in moments of financial stress.

The Fed renews this facility year after year on the premise that it actually safeguards US interests and markets, since overseas banks in moments of global market upheaval could otherwise be forced to dump US bonds.

"But rationality doesn't always prevail with this administration," a third source said. "When they run retaliatory trade policies with their closest allies, Trump could just say, 'Hey, they're ripping us off' and the swap lines could be gone overnight."

The sources said there has not been even a hint that these backstops are in danger, and they still expected them to remain unchanged. The swap lines are authorized by the Federal Open Market Committee itself and operated exclusively by the Fed, not the administration.

"Decisions concerning Federal Reserve facilities and swap-line arrangements rest with the Federal Reserve," the Treasury official said. "Nothing Treasury has announced regarding either yen operations or debt buybacks suggests otherwise."

The official added that Bessent looked forward to discussing financial stability issues with G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in the coming days in Asheville, North Carolina, seeking to further press the administration's agenda on isolating Iran, fostering growth and reducing global imbalances.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh travelled to Europe just over a month into his job and went out of his way to foster good relations with officials there, leaving a predominantly positive impression, the sources said.

In his debut Jackson Hole conference as Fed leader, he also posed for a customary photo with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, a small but still notable gesture since Trump is now engaged in an escalating and bitter trade war with Canada.



Saudi Arabia Offers 100% Social Insurance Debt Waiver to Businesses That Have Exited Market

Officials from the General Organization for Social Insurance at an earlier meeting with businessmen and businesswomen at the Riyadh Chamber (SPA)
Officials from the General Organization for Social Insurance at an earlier meeting with businessmen and businesswomen at the Riyadh Chamber (SPA)
TT

Saudi Arabia Offers 100% Social Insurance Debt Waiver to Businesses That Have Exited Market

Officials from the General Organization for Social Insurance at an earlier meeting with businessmen and businesswomen at the Riyadh Chamber (SPA)
Officials from the General Organization for Social Insurance at an earlier meeting with businessmen and businesswomen at the Riyadh Chamber (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's General Organization for Social Insurance (GOSI) has made businesses that have ceased operations and exited the Saudi market eligible for a 100% waiver of outstanding social insurance debts, subject to approved conditions, Asharq Al-Awsat has learned.

The move aims to address accumulated financial obligations, help businesses settle their accounts and close outstanding cases, and support stability in the Kingdom's private sector while resolving financial difficulties faced by companies that have left the market.

The measure is part of a broader package of improvements GOSI is implementing to enhance services for employers and businesses, in response to feedback and suggestions gathered during direct meetings with officials and business owners, in cooperation with chambers of commerce.

Taking Economic Conditions into Account

The initiative has economic and regulatory implications beyond debt relief, seeking to address financial and administrative liabilities left behind by businesses that have exited the market and facilitate the formal closure of their records in accordance with regulations.

Its main significance lies in striking a balance between protecting the rights of the social insurance system and its contributors, on the one hand, and taking into account the economic circumstances of businesses that have ceased operations, on the other.

It also reinforces regulatory flexibility in the business environment, ensuring that accumulated obligations do not become a permanent obstacle to the settlement of financial and administrative affairs.

Enhancing Market Attractiveness

The initiative reflects a more flexible approach to dealing with business distress, focusing on resolving outstanding liabilities rather than allowing them to remain a continuing burden on business owners.

This approach is expected to strengthen confidence in regulatory procedures and enhance the attractiveness of Saudi Arabia's business environment.

The move is particularly significant given the changing nature of the business sector, with new companies entering the market each year while others cease operations because of competition, rising costs, or shifting market conditions.

Settling the social insurance accounts of businesses that have exited the market could ease the administrative and financial burden on their owners, help them reorganize their financial affairs and potentially pave the way for a return to commercial activity in the future, without old liabilities remaining an obstacle, subject to applicable regulations.

According to information obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat, GOSI has notified all companies and establishments of improvements introduced to its business services, including the debt waiver.

The measure is designed to enable businesses that have ceased operations to resolve their outstanding social insurance obligations and complete the regulatory procedures associated with closing their operations, easing the financial burden on owners whose businesses are no longer active.

Service Improvements

In a related development, GOSI's improvements include upgrades to services for registering businesses, terminating their activities and managing ownership records, alongside efforts to resolve recurring technical problems and improve the quality of digital services.

The changes are intended to improve the user experience and accelerate transaction processing.

GOSI has also expanded electronic payment options through its GOSI Business app, allowing employers to pay amounts exceeding 30,000 Saudi riyals ($8,000) in multiple installments.

The measure aims to make it easier for businesses to meet their financial obligations while providing greater payment flexibility.

The updates also include measures to increase transparency in transaction processing by clarifying the reasons for rejecting occupational injury claims and contributor-related transactions.

Notifications have also been introduced through the GOSI Business and Tawakkalna apps to inform users when applications are received, accepted, returned, or rejected.

Together, the improvements reflect GOSI's efforts to modernize its digital services, simplify procedures for employers and improve the management of social insurance obligations.

The measures are also intended to support the business environment and help resolve outstanding financial and administrative matters involving businesses.


From Aramco's Profits to State Budget Revenue: How Do Oil Proceeds Reach Government Coffers?

A general view shows Ras Tanura's oil production plant near Dammam in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province (AFP)
A general view shows Ras Tanura's oil production plant near Dammam in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province (AFP)
TT

From Aramco's Profits to State Budget Revenue: How Do Oil Proceeds Reach Government Coffers?

A general view shows Ras Tanura's oil production plant near Dammam in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province (AFP)
A general view shows Ras Tanura's oil production plant near Dammam in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province (AFP)

Saudi Aramco's financial results and Saudi Arabia's third-quarter budget performance report, released on the same day, revealed a divergence between the company's rising profits and declining government oil revenue recorded in the state budget.

While Aramco's net income rose 34.2% during the first nine months of 2026 to SAR 380.6 billion ($101.5 billion), government oil revenue fell 1.3% over the same period and declined approximately 23% in the third quarter alone.

Comparing the two indicators does not necessarily imply a direct relationship between the company's profits and the revenue flowing into government coffers. Corporate earnings are recognized under different accounting principles from those governing the calculation and collection of government revenue.

The financial relationship between Aramco and the government also involves multiple channels, including taxes, royalties, dividends and offsetting settlements, each with its own payment and collection schedule.

Aramco's Profits and Cash Flows

Aramco reported net income of SAR 380.6 billion ($101.5 billion) for the first nine months of 2026, compared with SAR 283.6 billion ($75.6 billion) in the corresponding period last year, an increase of 34.2%.

Adjusted net income reached SAR 368.9 billion ($98.4 billion), up from SAR 302.3 billion ($80.6 billion) a year earlier.

However, the increase in earnings was not accompanied by a comparable rise in cash generated by the company's operations, according to its financial report.

Cash flow from operating activities totaled SAR 355.8 billion ($94.9 billion), compared with SAR 357.6 billion ($95.4 billion) in the same period last year, remaining largely unchanged.

Aramco attributed this to changes in working capital, which refers to funds tied up in day-to-day operations, including outstanding sales receivables, inventories and amounts owed to or by the company.

These movements limited the extent to which higher earnings translated into operating cash flow.

Meanwhile, free cash flow increased to SAR 221.6 billion ($59.1 billion), compared with SAR 217.3 billion ($57.9 billion) a year earlier.

This metric measures the cash remaining after capital expenditures are deducted from operating cash flow. It benefited from a reduction in capital expenditures to SAR 134.2 billion ($35.8 billion), from SAR 140.3 billion ($37.4 billion) in the comparable period.

Oil Revenue in the State Budget

On the other side of the equation, Aramco's earnings growth was not mirrored by a corresponding increase in government oil revenue.

Ministry of Finance data showed that oil revenue fell 23% year on year in the third quarter to SAR 116.5 billion ($31.1 billion), compared with SAR 150.8 billion ($40.2 billion) in the same period last year.

Over the first nine months of 2026, oil revenue totaled SAR 446.3 billion ($119 billion), down from SAR 452.4 billion ($120.6 billion) in the corresponding period of 2025, representing a relatively modest decline of approximately 1.3%.

By contrast, non-oil revenue increased 8% during the nine-month period to SAR 412.5 billion ($110 billion), helping lift total budget revenue by 3% to SAR 858.9 billion ($229 billion).

In the third quarter alone, non-oil revenue rose 20% to SAR 142.6 billion ($38 billion).

The growth in non-oil revenue therefore helped cushion the impact of declining oil revenue on the government's overall income.

Third-quarter expenditure totaled SAR 343.4 billion ($91.6 billion), against revenue of SAR 259.1 billion ($69.1 billion), resulting in a quarterly budget deficit of approximately SAR 84.3 billion ($22.5 billion).

Why Don't the Figures Move in the Same Direction?

Part of the divergence between Aramco's financial results and government budget revenue stems from the different nature of the figures themselves.

The company's profits are recognized according to its accounting results, while budget figures reflect government revenue actually collected during the reporting period.

Moreover, the government's financial returns from Aramco's operations flow through several channels, including taxes, royalties and dividends, with differences in when these amounts become due and when they are paid.

Accounting profits do not necessarily translate into cash inflows during the same period. Liquidity is affected by the timing of receivables collection, inventory movements and operating payments.

This distinction is also evident in financial transactions between Aramco and the government, which are not limited to direct cash payments but include the settlement of certain mutual obligations through offsets.

For example, Aramco's cash income tax payments fell to SAR 2.8 billion (approximately $747 million) in the third quarter, compared with around SAR 51 billion ($13.6 billion) in the second quarter, as amounts due to the company from the government were settled by offsetting them against its tax obligations.

Under this mechanism, amounts owed to one party are deducted from what that party owes the other, rather than transferring the full amount in cash.

Such offsets affect both the volume of cash payments and the timing of financial transfers between Aramco and the government.

Consequently, government oil revenue does not necessarily move in the same direction as Aramco's financial results, since each is influenced by different factors and accounting mechanisms.

While the company's profits reflect its financial performance during a given period, government revenue recorded in the budget depends on the taxes, royalties and dividends due to the state, as well as the timing of their collection and settlement.

Aramco's profits may therefore increase during a period when government oil revenue is declining.

Overall, the results demonstrate Aramco's continued ability to generate strong profits and maintain substantial cash flows, supporting its capacity to sustain investment and distribute dividends to shareholders, foremost among them the Saudi government.

At the same time, growth in non-oil revenue underscores the importance of diversifying budget income sources to mitigate fluctuations in oil revenue, broaden the sources supporting public finances and advance the Kingdom's economic transformation.


Crypto Dips on Democrat Midterm Wins, Binance Hack Dents Optimism

Representation of cryptocurrencies are seen in this illustration taken September 10, 2025. (Reuters)
Representation of cryptocurrencies are seen in this illustration taken September 10, 2025. (Reuters)
TT

Crypto Dips on Democrat Midterm Wins, Binance Hack Dents Optimism

Representation of cryptocurrencies are seen in this illustration taken September 10, 2025. (Reuters)
Representation of cryptocurrencies are seen in this illustration taken September 10, 2025. (Reuters)

Cryptocurrencies briefly dipped on Wednesday as Democrats won majorities in both the Senate and House in the US midterm elections, a potential blow to an industry that has pushed for faster deregulation for digital assets.

The sector has spent more than $300 million backing crypto-friendly Democrats and Republicans in roughly equal measure during the current and previous election cycles, hoping to pass legislation US crypto companies say will ‌put them on ‌a solid legal footing and allow them to thrive.

Bitcoin ‌briefly ⁠touched a six-week ⁠low before recovering to trade roughly flat by 0715 GMT at $78,070. Ether traded at $2,292, up just 1%.

Bitcoin has fallen by around 41% since hitting record highs above $122,000 in October 2025, bringing the value of the broader crypto market to around $2.61 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

The market has lost some $300 billion in value in the last month alone, as deepening concern about future returns from AI and the ⁠strain of rising borrowing costs pushed investors into less risky ‌assets such as government bonds and ‌safe-haven currencies.

Sentiment has also been hurt by the $6 billion hack of the Binance platform last ‌week, the largest heist in history.

On Tuesday, Binance customers had withdrawn ‌a net $4.72 billion from the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange since it reopened following the hack at the weekend.

"The market may be re-evaluating the risk-reward profile of crypto assets. On one hand, the string of security incidents is forcing investors to re-examine the ‌industry's security infrastructure and custody risks," Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, said.

"On the other hand, potential shifts in ⁠the US political landscape ⁠could stall the progress of structural crypto legislation and institutional framework development. All of these factors leave the crypto market facing strong headwinds," he said.

US President Donald Trump, who vowed to make the United States the "crypto capital of the world" during his 2024 presidential campaign, has made his own forays into digital assets, with the launch of his "Trump" meme coin, plus his family's World Liberty Financial crypto platform, among other ventures.

The sector has seen sweeping reforms in the almost two years since Trump returned to office, including lighter enforcement and the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve.

Washington has also allowed for easier access to banking and exchange-traded products and passed a federal stablecoin law that could help these assets move into the mainstream payments and money transfer systems.