Temporary Survival

The region was spared a real catastrophe, but only temporarily, when both Pakistan and Iran were content with mutual strikes on the borders of the two countries, after the unprecedented attack carried out by Tehran on the Pakistani border.
The Iranian assault on Pakistani territory almost led to a real catastrophe, given that Pakistan is a nuclear state, with a population of 250 million, and a strong army. Any military confrontation between Iran and Pakistan would spark a major sectarian war.
The occurrence of a conflict of this kind, God forbid, would also lead to the return of all terrorist organizations, and the emergence of a world of militias throughout the region, in an unprecedented way. It would also disrupt every reform movement in this part of the planet.
Well, how do we read this Iranian aggression, which led to a direct and rapid Pakistani response, the first of its kind on Iranian soil by a country in the region, since the eight-year Iran-Iraq war in 1980?
Tehran’s targeting of Pakistani territory tells us that Iran has no red lines in the region. It also shows that the country, whenever it feels threatened or under siege, does not hesitate to jump into the unknown as its regime lives on the brink of abyss.
This is not a rumor, as Reuters quoted three Iranian officials as saying that the Iranian strike on Pakistan was motivated by Tehran’s efforts to strengthen its internal security rather than its ambitions for the Middle East.
This came after the recent bombings in Kerman, southeastern Iran, in which nearly a hundred people were killed, exposing the fragility of the security situation in Iran, especially following the successive security incursions into Iran by the Israelis.
Adding to all of this are the blows that Tehran’s militias have recently received in Iraq, Yemen and Syria from the Americans. Likewise, the strikes that Iran and Hezbollah are receiving in Syria from the Israelis, such as the killing of the commander of the Quds Force, and the director of the Corps’ intelligence, who was eliminated yesterday in Syria.
This situation prompted the Iranians to carry out attacks that would save face, whether in Iraq or Syria. But what is unusual is the targeting Pakistani territory, which was met with a quick Pakistani response, with a clear message that Pakistan is a red line, and outside the scope of the Iranian adventure.
Tehran did what it did, and what it has always done. It has not yet become a nuclear state, which raises this urgent question: What will a nuclear Iran be like? What are the limits of Tehran’s adventure in the region, or on all Iranian borders?
All the events in the history of Iran, the Khomeini Revolution, and even now, say that it is difficult to predict the behavior of the regime that does not hesitate to intimidate, even if it costs dire consequences. It is true that Iran is always standing on the edge of the abyss, but the matter is not always guaranteed.
Therefore, the easing of the Iranian-Pakistani tension represents temporary salvation. Because nothing is sure with this Iranian approach that always seeks to escape forward. This crisis in itself is an alarm bell that reminds of the danger of the Iranian project not only to the region, but even to the Iranian interior.