Tehran… Tel Aviv… On Course For Escalation

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost control over the situation. He escalated the confrontation to unprecedented levels, compelling Tehran to retaliate. While the latter’s retaliation was constrained, the results will not be. Netanyahu is pushing Iran to take actions it had avoided for nearly a year. The cycle of attacks and retaliations is pushing the two countries closer to the direct clash Netanyahu has been seeking since October 7th and Tehran has been avoiding for decades.
Iran launched 200 hypersonic missiles at Israeli targets in occupied Palestine on Tuesday. This retaliation is a turning point in the struggle between the two countries, but the magnitude of the strike was by no means equivalent to that of Israel’s strikes. Moreover, it will not be enough to reestablish the balance of power between the two sides; rather, it should be seen as an attempt to regain the initiative.
Taking action to regain the initiative, even late on, is arguably better than not doing so at all. Did it delay its push to take back the initiative in order to alleviate suffering or address injustices? If we look at it from a religious framework- indeed the Iranian regime has a theocratic ideology but pursues a pragmatic strategy- we find that the regime continues to insist on combining the two in confronting what is the most challenging phase it has ever been in.
Tehran is trying to restore its image on two intertwined levels through the grand spectacle of its delayed reprisal for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah's Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed alongside the Lebanon and Syria commander of the Quds Force, General Abbas Nilforoushan...
First, it wants to reverse the erosion of its proxies’ trust, as well as that of their supporters. Initially, criticism of its inaction was voiced in whispers, but it grew increasingly more audible as the its “unity of the arenas” strategy was only implemented when it served Iran’s national security interests (but not when it served Gaza) over the past year. This pushed some to publicly accuse Iran of abandoning Hezbollah, or leaving it exposed, through statements by its officials, which many blamed for the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. All the people of Lebanon, especially the supporters of Hezbollah, made this accusation and complained that Iran prioritizes its national security as Lebanon is being threatened with a third Israeli invasion.
The second level has both international and domestic dimensions. Iran desperately needs to restore its reputation and build back its prestige, but it seeks to avoid seeing things get out of control, primarily for domestic consideration. It is evident that the majority of Iranians do not want their country to engage in a war that they do not see as not their own. They are not willing to fit the bill for the defense of any cause or struggle that is not a national priority. Even some among Iran’s ruling elites, including hardliners who want to wipe Israel off the map, want to avoid a conflict that threatens the regime's survival. Thus, a calibrated response was the option Iran opted for, leaving it to Washington to manage or contain Israel’s retaliation.
Regarding the strategy of constraints, the Iranian government spokesperson emphasized that their posture is defensive, not offensive, addressing both domestic and international audiences. Globally, particularly in Washington, we are seeing an effort to prevent Netanyahu's recklessness from taking things too far. Most of all, the goal is to isolate the reprisal from Iran’s nuclear program, which Washington manages alone.
Thus, an Israeli attack on targets within Iran is very likely, but nuclear and (probably) oil facilities will not be targeted. Accordingly, if it does retaliate, Iran will have room to decide how to respond to Tel Aviv's retaliation. Iran hopes this will establish new rules of engagement. However, Tel Aviv, which is pushing the region towards escalation, will not necessarily adhere to these rules.