If a huge asteroid smashes into the Moon in 2032, the gigantic explosion would send debris streaming towards Earth that would threaten satellites and create a spectacular meteor shower, according to researchers.
Earlier this year there were briefly fears that the 60-meter-wide (200-foot-wide) asteroid called 2024 YR4, which is big enough to level a city, would strike Earth on December 22, 2032, according to AFP.
Subsequent observations from telescopes definitively ruled out a direct hit on Earth.
However, the odds that it will crash into the Moon have risen to 4.3%, according to data from the James Webb space telescope in May.
A new preprint study, which has not been peer-reviewed, is the first to estimate how such a collision could affect Earth.
It would be the largest asteroid to hit the Moon in around 5,000 years, lead study author Paul Wiegert of Canada's University of Western Ontario told AFP.
The impact would be “comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released,” he added.
Up to 100 million kilograms of material would shoot out from the Moon's surface, according to a series of simulations run by the researchers.
If the asteroid hit the side of the Moon facing Earth -- which is roughly a 50% chance -- up to 10% of this debris could be pulled in by Earth's gravity over the following days, they said.
“A centimeter-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of meters per second is a lot like a bullet,” Wiegert said.
In the days after the impact, there could be more than 1,000 times the normal number of meteors threatening Earth's satellites, he added.
Meanwhile, those of us on the ground would be treated to a “spectacular” meteor shower lighting up the night sky, the study said.
