Probability of Russia's Exit from Grain Deal Remains High

Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO
Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO
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Probability of Russia's Exit from Grain Deal Remains High

Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO
Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO

The probability of Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal in July remains high, although talks continue, Russia's RIA news agency cited an anonymous source as saying on Wednesday.

Moscow has repeatedly complained that it was not getting what it wanted from the deal which has allowed grain to be shipped out of Ukrainian ports and expires on July 18.

The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority said on Tuesday that Ukraine must be ready to export grain almost exclusively via its Danube River ports because Russia is effectively blocking Black Sea shipments.

The United Nations and Türkiye brokered a deal between Moscow and Kyiv last July on the safe passage of Black Sea grain to help tackle a global food crisis worsened by Russia's invasion of its neighbor and a blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

Moscow has threatened not to extend the deal beyond July 18 unless a series of demands are met, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertilizer exports. It says that promises of help with those exports have not materialized.



Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine at the fastest rate since the early days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of Greater London over the past month, analysts and war bloggers say.

The war is entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its most dangerous phase after Moscow's forces made some of their biggest territorial gains and the United States allowed Kyiv to strike back with US missiles.

"Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine," independent Russian news group Agentstvo said in a report.

The Russian army captured almost 235 sq km (91 sq miles) in Ukraine over the past week, a weekly record for 2024, it said.

Russian forces had taken 600 sq km (232 sq miles) in November, it added, citing data from DeepState, a group with close links to the Ukrainian army that studies combat footage and provides frontline maps.

Russia began advancing faster in eastern Ukraine in July just as Ukrainian forces carved out a sliver of its western region of Kursk. Since then, the Russian advance has accelerated, according to open source maps.

Russia's forces are moving into the town of Kurakhove, a stepping stone towards the logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, and have been exploiting the vulnerabilities of Kyiv troops along the frontline, analysts said.

"Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023," analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report.

The General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces said in its Monday update that 45 battles of varying intensity were raging along the Kurakhove part of the frontline that evening.

The Institute for the Study of War report and pro-Russian military bloggers say Russian troops are in Kurakhove. Deep State said on its Telegram messaging app on Monday that Russian forces are near Kurakhove.

"Russian forces' advances in southeastern Ukraine are largely the result of the discovery and tactical exploitation of vulnerabilities in Ukraine's lines," Institute analysts said in their report.

Russia says it will achieve all of its aims in Ukraine no matter what the West says or does.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly said peace cannot be established until all Russian forces are expelled and all territory captured by Moscow, including Crimea, is returned.

But outnumbered by Russian troops, the Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and provide equipment to new units.

Zelenskiy has said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin's main objectives were to occupy the entire Donbas, spanning the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and oust Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, parts of which they have controlled since August.