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Demands in Iran to Put Khatami on Trial After Warning ‘the Regime Might Collapse’

Former President Mohammad Khatami delivers a speech in Tehran last April (Jamaran)
Former President Mohammad Khatami delivers a speech in Tehran last April (Jamaran)
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Demands in Iran to Put Khatami on Trial After Warning ‘the Regime Might Collapse’

Former President Mohammad Khatami delivers a speech in Tehran last April (Jamaran)
Former President Mohammad Khatami delivers a speech in Tehran last April (Jamaran)

Iranian conservatives were angered by former reformist President Mohammad Khatami, who criticized the rulers, warning that the regime will inevitably fall if it doesn’t make any amendments to the constitution.

Khatami strongly criticized the governance and the country's waste of energy and talent, calling on the politicians to stand with the people and support them.

“We must tell the authorities that it deals badly with the people,” according to the Jamaran website, affiliated with the family of the first Supreme Leader Khomeini.

Khatami, who held the presidency for eight years between 1997 and 2005, was speaking to a group of political prisoners during the Shah's time.

- Self-reformation

Khatami said the revolution and Islamic regime are welcomed, but recent developments are “far from the Islamic Republic," stressing the need for "self-reform" of the ruling body.

He warned that such governance would cause harm to Islam, the people, and Iran, causing irreparable losses.

Khatami touched on the powers of the Iranian institutions, saying that the Assembly of Experts for Leadership's duty is to appoint and dismiss the Supreme Leader and supervise his performance and the apparatus attributed to him.

The former president warned that security will only be sustainable if the governing body is concerned with development and justice.

“Unless it is self-reformation, your end will be inevitable,” said Khatami, adding that the government must admit its mistakes and reform itself.

- Participation in the elections

Khatami also commented on the parliamentary elections, saying elections are for the people. He indicated that parties worldwide determine the candidates' eligibility, wondering why authorities do not allow semi-authorized parties to present their nominees.

He believed that it is normal that people do not wish to participate in the elections when 70 percent do not find their desired candidate, warning that resorting to coercive force does not fix matters.

In February, Khatami gave a speech calling for reforms within the framework of the current constitution and distanced himself from the statement of his ally, the reformist leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, who called for a general referendum on a new form.

-Trial and Accountability

Hours after Khatami's statements, the hardline Kayhan newspaper called for the reformist president to be arrested and brought to court.

Kayhan editor-in-chief, Hossein Shariatmadari, described Khatami as an “incompetent person” who tries to portray himself as opposition, saying he repeatedly betrayed the country.

Javan newspaper, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), responded to Khatami's statements regarding his support for the revolution, saying the leadership had tolerance within the framework of the law.

The newspaper accused Khatami of borrowing the phrases of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

IRGC media criticized Khatami during the period that followed the candidates’ registration for the presidential elections.

- Reform aspirations

Several reformist figures and parties aspired to run in the parliamentary elections.

The former head of the Reform Front, Behzad Nabawi, downplayed the chances of young people joining the reformists.

In June, the reformist parties chose activist Azar Mansouri as the head of the front after Nabawi resigned following his controversial positions against the protest movement in the wake of the death of the young woman, Mahsa Amini, while the morality police detained her.

Nabawi said young people will not accept a woman presiding over the reform front.

Reform Front spokesman Javad Imam denied, in a statement to Jamaran, the existence of divisions in the Reform Front or any intentions to boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Imam criticized the new electoral law, which gives the Guardian Council broader powers in deciding candidates' eligibility, warning that if it is not reviewed, the country will not witness free elections.

Recent reports revealed meetings between some reformist figures, including Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader, and reformist leader Mehdi Karroubi, who has been under house arrest since 2011.

On Monday, Hossein Karroubi, the son of Mehdi, told the reformist "ILNA" agency that reports about his father's meeting with the reformists were "incorrect" and that he has no current position on the elections, given the developments in the country.

Earlier, the reformist Insaf New website reported that Karroubi and Hadi Khamenei met to discuss participating in the elections.

Reformist parties did not reveal their plans for the parliamentary elections, and the moderate parties still need to be clear about their position.

- More than 40,000 applicants

On August 13, the Iranian Elections Commission, affiliated with the Ministry of the Interior, completed the process of registering candidates for the parliamentary elections.

Iranian media said 48,000 people applied for candidacy nationwide to compete for 290 parliamentary seats.

The Fars Agency, affiliated with the IRGC, said that more than 800 reformists had applied for the parliamentary elections.

Last week, Kayhan newspaper reported that several reformists “silently” registered for the elections.

Interior Minister Ahmed Vahidi said that representatives of all political currents have applied for candidacy.

This is the first election following the recent protests, and the authorities fear weak voter participation after the recent parliamentary and presidential polls recorded the lowest turnout in four decades.

Earlier this year, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered the mobilization of all forces to increase the number of election participants.

Fars news agency reported that parliament is reviewing a draft plan to increase 40 seats in the Iranian parliament. The program includes increasing the number of representatives in 25 of the 31 Iranian provinces.

The parliament currently includes 290 seats, and 250 deputies from the current parliament have submitted their requests to run in the upcoming elections.

 

 

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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)

On 24 February 2022, in a televised speech heralding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin issued what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries should they interfere.

“Russia will respond immediately,” he said, “and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.”

Then on 27 February 2022, Putin ordered Russia to move nuclear forces to a “special mode of combat duty’, which has a significant meaning in terms of the protocols to launch nuclear weapons from Russia.”

Dr. Patricia Lewis, director of the International Security program at Chatham House, wrote in a report that according to Russian nuclear weapons experts, Russia’s command and control system cannot transmit launch orders in peacetime, so increasing the status to “combat” allows a launch order to go through and be put into effect.

She said Putin made stronger nuclear threats in September 2022, following months of violent conflict and gains made by a Ukrainian counterattack.

“He indicated a stretch in Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use from an existential threat to Russia to a threat to its territorial integrity,” Lewis wrote.

In November 2022, according to much later reports, the US and allies detected manoeuvres that suggested Russian nuclear forces were being mobilized.

Lewis said that after a flurry of diplomatic activity, China’s President Xi Jinping stepped in to calm the situation and speak against the use of nuclear weapons.

In September 2024, Putin announced an update of the 2020 Russian nuclear doctrine. The update was published on 19 November 2024 and formally reduced the threshold for nuclear weapons use.

According to Lewis, the 2020 doctrine said that Russia could use nuclear weapons “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”

On 21 November 2024, Russia attacked Dnipro in Ukraine using a new ballistic missile for the first time.

She said Putin announced the missile as the ‘Oreshnik’, which is understood to be a nuclear-capable, intermediate-range ballistic missile which has a theoretical range of below 5,500km.

Lewis added that Russia has fired conventionally armed nuclear-capable missiles at Ukraine throughout the war, but the Oreshnik is much faster and harder to defend against, and suggests an escalatory intent by Russia.

Nuclear Response During Cold War

In her report, Lewis said that nuclear weapons deterrence was developed in the Cold War primarily on the basis of what was called ‘mutually assured destruction’ (MAD).

The idea behind MAD is that the horror and destruction from nuclear weapons is enough to deter aggressive action and war, she added.

But the application of deterrence theory to post-cold war realities is far more complicated in the era of cyberattacks and AI, which could interfere with the command and control of nuclear weapons.

In light of these risks, presidents Biden and Xi issued a joint statement from the 2024 G20 summit affirming the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.

The US and Russia exchange information on their strategic, long-range nuclear missiles under the New START agreement – a treaty to reduce and monitor nuclear weapons between the two countries which is set to expire in February 2026.

But, Lewis said, with the US decision to exit the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, there are no longer any agreements between the US and Russia regulating the number or the deployment of ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km.

She said short-range nuclear weapons were withdrawn and put in storage as a result of the 1991 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives but are not subject to any legal restraints.

The 10th NPT Review Conference was held in 2022 in New York. The issue of nuclear weapons threats and the targeting of nuclear power stations in Ukraine were central to the debate.

Lewis noted that a document was carefully crafted to finely balance concerns about the three pillars of the treaty – non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. But Russia withdrew its agreement on the last day of the conference, scuppering progress.

“It was believed that if Russia were to use nuclear weapons it would likely be in Ukraine, using short range, lower yield ‘battlefield’ nuclear weapons,” she said, adding that Russia is thought to have more than 1,000 in reserve.

“These would have to be taken from storage and either connected to missiles, placed in bombers, or as shell in artillery,” Lewis wrote.

Increasingly the rhetoric from Russia suggests nuclear threats are a more direct threat to NATO – not only Ukraine – and could refer to longer range, higher yield nuclear weapons.

For example in his 21 September 2022 speech, Putin accused NATO states of nuclear blackmail, referring to alleged “statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.”

Putin added: “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.”

There have been no expressed nuclear weapons threats from NATO states.

NATO does rely on nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence and has recently committed to significantly strengthen its longer-term deterrence and defence posture in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The current UK Labor government has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to British nuclear weapons – including before the July 2024 election, according to Lewis.

Therefore, she said, any movement to ready and deploy Russian nuclear weapons would be seen and monitored by US and others’ satellites, which can see through cloud cover and at night – as indeed appears to have happened in late 2022.

Lewis concluded that depending on other intelligence and analysis – and the failure of all diplomatic attempts to dissuade Russia – NATO countries may decide to intervene to prevent launch by bombing storage sites and missile deployment sites in advance.