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Australia and ASEAN Call for Restraint in South China Sea, Ceasefire in Gaza 

A man drives a motorbike behind an ambulance near Khan Younis, in the south of the Gaza Strip, on March 5, 2024, during the Israel-Hamas war. © AFP
A man drives a motorbike behind an ambulance near Khan Younis, in the south of the Gaza Strip, on March 5, 2024, during the Israel-Hamas war. © AFP
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Australia and ASEAN Call for Restraint in South China Sea, Ceasefire in Gaza 

A man drives a motorbike behind an ambulance near Khan Younis, in the south of the Gaza Strip, on March 5, 2024, during the Israel-Hamas war. © AFP
A man drives a motorbike behind an ambulance near Khan Younis, in the south of the Gaza Strip, on March 5, 2024, during the Israel-Hamas war. © AFP

Australia and Southeast Asian nations ended a three-day summit on Wednesday calling for restraint in the contested South China Sea and a lasting ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. 

Australia hosted a summit with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Melbourne to mark the 50th anniversary of its ties to the bloc, even as differences remained across the 10 members on China's plans to extend diplomatic and military presence in the region. 

A joint statement by Australia and ASEAN called for "rules-based" order in the Indo Pacific, as Beijing looks to increase its presence in the South China Sea. 

"We recognize the benefits of having the South China Sea as a sea of peace, stability, and prosperity," the statement said. 

"We encourage all countries to avoid any unilateral actions that endanger peace, security and stability in the region." 

A spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry said that the situation in South China Sea was generally stable and China's position on the disputed area was consistent and clear. 

"We will properly manage differences with the countries concerned and fully and effectively implement them with ASEAN countries," they said in response to questions about the ASEAN statement during a regular press briefing on Wednesday. 

China's response came as the Philippines on Tuesday summoned Beijing's deputy chief of mission in Manila to protest at what it called "aggressive actions" by Chinese naval forces against a resupply mission for Filipino troops stationed on a South China Sea shoal. 

Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion worth of ship-borne commerce each year, and the area is a major source of tension with the Philippines. 

Both countries have been locked in a territorial dispute despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which found that China's claims had no legal basis. Beijing rejects that ruling. 

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, during a press conference with Albanese on Monday, said there was a growing "China-phobia" in the West. In an interview published on Tuesday in the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper, Anwar claimed the risk of conflict in the South China Sea had been exaggerated. 

The joint statement also reiterated concern over the "dire" humanitarian situation in Gaza, as well as calling for the release of hostages held in the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

"We condemn attacks against all civilians and civilian infrastructure, leading to further deterioration of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza including restricted access to food, water, and other basic needs," the statement said. 

"We urge for an immediate and durable humanitarian ceasefire." 

ASEAN includes Muslim majority nations, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei, while Australia is a strong backer of Israel, although it has previously called for a ceasefire and been critical of the level of casualties. 

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Iran Awaits Trump's Policy on its Nuclear Program

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
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Iran Awaits Trump's Policy on its Nuclear Program

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)

One of the many complex foreign policy problems that Donald Trump will inherit when he takes office in just over two weeks is Iran, according to the US Council on Foreign Relations.

Iran is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power, its robust ballistic missile program continues to progress, and it sees the United States as the main obstacle to its domination of the Middle East, the Council wrote in an analysis.

“How will Trump respond,” it then asked, “That question is easy to answer because Trump has been consistent about his plans. He will return to his first administration’s policy of “maximum pressure.”

That effort sought to turn the economic screws on Iran by expanding US sanctions against it and ratcheting up the enforcement of sanctions already in place.

“The goal was not regime change but rather forcing Tehran to limit its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and curb support for the regional militias that made up the so-called axis of resistance,” the Council said.

It added that although maximum pressure squeezed the Iranian economy, it failed to force Tehran to the bargaining table.

The Council said even as its economy faltered and its foreign reserves dwindled, Iran continued its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, expanded its support for its regional proxies, and even launched a missile attack against a US base in Iraq in 2020.

“Would the maximum pressure campaign have paid off had the Biden administration kept it in place? Trump thinks so,” it wrote.

The Council said evidence on that score is mixed.

“Israel’s wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, have weakened Iran’s position in the region. Its proxies are fewer and weaker than just six months ago.”

Beyond that, Israel’s October retaliatory air strikes destroyed much of Iran’s air defenses, leaving it open to further military attacks.

Nuclear Program

According to the Council, that vulnerability, coupled with Iran’s economic woes and domestic unrest, may be why Iran’s foreign minister said that Iran is looking to resume nuclear talks.

By the same token, however, a maximum pressure strategy takes time to work.

“That could be in short supply, at least when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program,” according to the Council.

It said Iran intensified its uranium-enrichment efforts after Trump terminated the 2015 nuclear deal that the Obama administration negotiated.

By most estimates, it added, Iran can now build a small number of nuclear weapons within weeks of deciding to cross the nuclear threshold.

The Council on Foreign Relations also noted that other great powers will also undermine the maximum pressure policy.

“China and Russia have both skirted or ignored existing US and multilateral sanctions on Iran. They are unlikely to comply with them now unless they get something significant from the United States in return,” it said.

The Council also showed that Trump may be unwilling or unable to provide that enticement. “If Tehran believes that Beijing and Moscow have its back, resistance becomes a more feasible strategy. Tehran could even use negotiations as a way to buy time to address its vulnerabilities,” it added.

Negotiations in Good Faith

Even if Iran enters into negotiations in good faith, Trump’s efforts could stumble over deciding what deal is good enough, the Council wrote.

It said the ideological diversity of his team, composed as it is of hardliners and American Firsters, makes it likely they will argue over what Tehran needs to concede to make a deal worthwhile. That internal division could torpedo the effort to get a deal.

“All of this raises the question of what happens if talks either do not begin or, perhaps more likely, go nowhere once they do,” the Council noted.

It said calls for the US to attack Iran’s nuclear sites are likely to mount if the maximum pressure campaign does not produce quick results. “Trump will also likely hear calls that he should encourage Israel to attack Iran, though Israel lacks the capability to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.”

According to the Council, Tehran will be assessing Trump’s willingness to use military force, as well as Israel’s military capabilities, as it thinks about negotiations.

It said Iranian leaders know he ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020, spoke on the campaign trail about blowing Iran “to smithereens” and has said that Israel should hit Iran’s nuclear sites.

But they also know that he campaigned against America’s “forever wars” in the Middle East while boasting, wrongly, that he is “the only president in seventy-two years” that “had no wars.”

According to the Council, resorting to military force, whether with direct US action or by encouraging Israel to attack, would be a major roll of the dice.

“It might succeed beyond its planners’ wildest dreams and usher in a new, more peaceful era in the Middle East,” it said.

Or, like the invasion of Iraq, it may open a Pandora’s Box of problems that will haunt the region and the United States for years to come, the Council showed.

But letting Iran continue its nuclear and ballistic missile programs while it rebuilds its axis of resistance has costs of its own, it noted.

Therefore, the Council said some hope that a return to the maximum pressure strategy works.