Iran: Calculation Error Behind Failure of Israeli Strikes

The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
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Iran: Calculation Error Behind Failure of Israeli Strikes

The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)

Iranian security officials confirmed on Tuesday that Israeli airstrikes did not meet their goals due to a “calculation error.”

However, satellite images indicate that the strikes damaged a missile manufacturing facility associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Analysis by the Associated Press suggests the Israeli attacks likely affected an IRGC base involved in producing ballistic missiles and launching missiles as part of its space program.

The damage at the Shahroud facility raises questions about the Israeli strikes that occurred early Saturday, particularly since it was in an area that Tehran had not previously acknowledged.

The IRGC has not commented on any damage from the attacks. Iran only reported that the Israeli strikes targeted the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran, without mentioning Semnan province, where the facility is located.

On Oct. 25, 2024, the Israeli military launched “precise and targeted” strikes on missile production sites and other military capabilities in Iran in response to an earlier attack by Tehran on Israel.

Israel warned that Iran would face a “heavy price” if it retaliated.

Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said that “Israel did not achieve its goals in its recent attack on the country.”

In a message honoring air defense personnel killed in the Israeli strikes, Nasirzadeh pointed out that “Israel made another mistake in judging Iran’s deterrence capabilities.”

He called the attacks “a clear violation of international law” and noted that they failed to accomplish their objectives.

According to the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency, Nasirzadeh claimed that “Iran’s comprehensive air defense system successfully intercepted and countered the Israeli attack on military sites in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam.”

Gholamreza Jalali, head of Iran’s Civil Defense Organization, stated on Tuesday that “Israel was planning to attack Iran’s military infrastructure.”

In comments to the media, Jalali said that “civil defense supports the military sector and is investing in industrial control systems for cyberspace.”

He highlighted the one of the systems which manages operations in refineries and gas and water transmission lines, helping the country defend against cyberattacks.

Jalali disclosed that “Iran began checking control and communication devices after the pager explosions in Lebanon and found a previously planted sensor during inspections of external servers.”

“We discovered software sensors that could threaten the country. These risks can no longer be ignored and need investigation,” he noted.

Jalali confirmed that Tehran is now working with “a local knowledge-based company to build internal servers.”



Iran, Israel Each Present Own 'Narratives' about Impact of Strikes

This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)
This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)
TT

Iran, Israel Each Present Own 'Narratives' about Impact of Strikes

This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)
This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)

Iran and Israel are both vying to assert or deny the success of the recent attack launched by Tel Aviv on Iran in achieving its objectives, amidst sharp discrepancies in information regarding the strikes and the targeted locations.
In its latest attack on Iran, Israel said it took out most of its missile defense systems and obliterated multiple radar systems that are needed to guide the same ballistic missiles that were fired at Israel in April and on Oct. 1 when Iran fired 181 ballistic missiles at Israel.
“Removing the radar systems prevents Iran from firing those missiles in the future”, the US Fox News quoted senior Israeli and American officials as saying.
On October 26, 2024, the Israeli military launched "precise and targeted" strikes on missile manufacturing sites and other aerial capabilities in Iran in response to the attack launched by Tehran on Israel earlier this month, threatening Tehran with making it "pay a heavy price" if it decided to retaliate.
S-300 Missile Defense Systems Destroyed
Fox News also reported that “Israel took out three of Iran's Russian-made S-300 missile defense systems during last week's retaliatory strike”.
Many believe the Israeli strike targeted critical military infrastructure, delivering both a “symbolic and tactical” blow to Iran’s strategic capabilities. However, Iranian leader Ali Khamenei commented, saying, "One should not underestimate the significance of the attack."
Fox News quoted President Biden's advisor for the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, as saying that "Iran is essentially naked" with no more missile defense.
A senior Israeli official said that removing the radar systems prevents Iran from firing those missiles in the future.
At the start of the year, Iran only had four S300 surface-to-air missile systems. In April, Israel took out one of the missile systems in response to Iran's first ballistic missile attack. A senior US official confirmed the airstrikes took out the three S-300 missile systems, reported Fox News.
"Our message is very, very clear... ‘Any threat, anywhere, at any time, we will know how to reach it, we will know how to strike,’" said Chief of the Israeli army General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi.
Halevi emphasized that Israel had only deployed a portion of its capabilities, suggesting that further actions could be taken should Iran escalate.
Production of Missiles “Unaffected”
For its part, Iran’s Defense Minister Nasir Zadeh confirmed that missile production in Iran has not faced any disruptions.
“The production of our defense systems, including missiles, has not encountered any problems or disruptions” he said on the sidelines of a government meeting on Wednesday, according to the Tasnim news agency.
He added that firing at Iranian territory is considered an aggression which will not be tolerated and will be met with a firm response.