Iran: Calculation Error Behind Failure of Israeli Strikes

The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
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Iran: Calculation Error Behind Failure of Israeli Strikes

The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)
The funeral of an Iranian Air Defense officer in Borujerd, Central Iran. (IRNA)

Iranian security officials confirmed on Tuesday that Israeli airstrikes did not meet their goals due to a “calculation error.”

However, satellite images indicate that the strikes damaged a missile manufacturing facility associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Analysis by the Associated Press suggests the Israeli attacks likely affected an IRGC base involved in producing ballistic missiles and launching missiles as part of its space program.

The damage at the Shahroud facility raises questions about the Israeli strikes that occurred early Saturday, particularly since it was in an area that Tehran had not previously acknowledged.

The IRGC has not commented on any damage from the attacks. Iran only reported that the Israeli strikes targeted the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran, without mentioning Semnan province, where the facility is located.

On Oct. 25, 2024, the Israeli military launched “precise and targeted” strikes on missile production sites and other military capabilities in Iran in response to an earlier attack by Tehran on Israel.

Israel warned that Iran would face a “heavy price” if it retaliated.

Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said that “Israel did not achieve its goals in its recent attack on the country.”

In a message honoring air defense personnel killed in the Israeli strikes, Nasirzadeh pointed out that “Israel made another mistake in judging Iran’s deterrence capabilities.”

He called the attacks “a clear violation of international law” and noted that they failed to accomplish their objectives.

According to the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency, Nasirzadeh claimed that “Iran’s comprehensive air defense system successfully intercepted and countered the Israeli attack on military sites in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam.”

Gholamreza Jalali, head of Iran’s Civil Defense Organization, stated on Tuesday that “Israel was planning to attack Iran’s military infrastructure.”

In comments to the media, Jalali said that “civil defense supports the military sector and is investing in industrial control systems for cyberspace.”

He highlighted the one of the systems which manages operations in refineries and gas and water transmission lines, helping the country defend against cyberattacks.

Jalali disclosed that “Iran began checking control and communication devices after the pager explosions in Lebanon and found a previously planted sensor during inspections of external servers.”

“We discovered software sensors that could threaten the country. These risks can no longer be ignored and need investigation,” he noted.

Jalali confirmed that Tehran is now working with “a local knowledge-based company to build internal servers.”



NKorea Leader: Longest ICBM Test 'Appropriate Military Action' against Enemies

FILE PHOTO: A Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile is launched during what North Korea says is a drill at an unknown location December 18, 2023 in this picture released by the Korean Central News Agency. KCNA via REUTERS
FILE PHOTO: A Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile is launched during what North Korea says is a drill at an unknown location December 18, 2023 in this picture released by the Korean Central News Agency. KCNA via REUTERS
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NKorea Leader: Longest ICBM Test 'Appropriate Military Action' against Enemies

FILE PHOTO: A Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile is launched during what North Korea says is a drill at an unknown location December 18, 2023 in this picture released by the Korean Central News Agency. KCNA via REUTERS
FILE PHOTO: A Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile is launched during what North Korea says is a drill at an unknown location December 18, 2023 in this picture released by the Korean Central News Agency. KCNA via REUTERS

North Korea said it tested an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday, upgrading what it called the "world's most powerful strategic weapon,” as Seoul warned Pyongyang could get missile technology from Russia for helping with the war in Ukraine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was on hand and said the test was a warning to enemies that have been threatening the country's security, KCNA state news agency said.
"The test-fire is an appropriate military action that fully meets the purpose of informing the rivals, who have intentionally escalated the regional situation and posed a threat to the security of our Republic recently, of our counteraction will," Kim was quoted as saying by KCNA.
The muscle-flexing comes amid a storm of international condemnation and rising alarm over what the U.S. and others say is North Korea's deployment of 11,000 troops to Russia - 3,000 of them close to the western frontlines with Ukraine.
The launch drew swift condemnation from South Korea, Japan and the United States.
A day earlier, Seoul reported signs the North may test-launch an ICBM or conduct a seventh nuclear test around the US presidential election on Tuesday, seeking to draw attention to its growing military prowess.
Shin Seung-ki, head of research on North Korea's military at the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said the launch was likely to test improved booster performance of an existing ICBM - possibly with the help of Russia.
"North Korea will want to keep getting help like this, because it saves times and costs while improving performance and upgrading the stability of weapons system," he said.
Having come under pressure over its engagement with Russia, "the intention may be to show that it will not bow to pressure, that it will respond to strength with strength, and also to seek some influence on the US presidential election," Shin added.

The launch early on Thursday was the longest ballistic missile test by the North with a flight-time of 87 minutes, according to South Korea.
KCNA said the test set new records of its missile capabilities.
The missile took off on a sharply lofted trajectory from an area near the North's capital and splashed down about 200 km west of Japan's Okushiri island, off Hokkaido.
It reached an altitude of 7,000 km and flew a distance of 1,000 km, the Japanese government said.

The so-called lofted trajectory of a projectile flying at a sharply raised angle is intended to test its thrust and stability over much shorter distances relative to the designed range, partly for safety and to avoid the political fallout of sending a missile far into the Pacific.

North Korea's last ICBM, dubbed the Hwasong-18, was tested in December last year. Fueled by solid-propellant and fired from a road launcher, it was also launched at a sharply raised angle and flew for 73 minutes, translating to a potential range of 15,000 km on a normal trajectory.
That is a distance that puts anywhere in the mainland United States within range.

Pyongyang's latest test came just hours after US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his South Korean counterpart Kim Yong-hyun met in Washington to condemn the North Korean troop deployment in Russia.

Neither Moscow or Pyongyang have directly acknowledged the deployment, but Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia on Wednesday questioned why its allies like North Korea could not help Moscow in its war against Ukraine given Western countries claim the right to help Kyiv.

South Korea said the deployment was a direct threat to its security because the North would gain valuable combat experience in a modern warfare and it will likely be rewarded by Moscow with "technology transfers" in areas such as tactical nuclear weapons, ICBMs, ballistic missile submarines and military reconnaissance satellites.