Tensions with Israel Overshadow Iran’s 2025 Budget

Iranian lawmakers concerned about gasoline price hike (AFP)
Iranian lawmakers concerned about gasoline price hike (AFP)
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Tensions with Israel Overshadow Iran’s 2025 Budget

Iranian lawmakers concerned about gasoline price hike (AFP)
Iranian lawmakers concerned about gasoline price hike (AFP)

After a contentious debate, Iran’s parliament approved the 2025 budget proposal, which features a 200% increase in military funding, tax changes, and higher gasoline prices.

On Tuesday, 146 out of 246 lawmakers supported the budget during a session, according to the state-run Mehr News Agency.

However, this approval is not final; the budget will undergo review by special committees as a “bill,” and it may take months to become law.

Experts say that Tuesday’s approval is merely an endorsement of the budget’s outlines, although it marks a significant step for President Masoud Pezeshkian.

In remarks aired on state television, Pezeshkian highlighted that his government’s budget focuses on growth, employment, and justice.

While Pezeshkian aims to address the country’s economic crisis, he faces major challenges, primarily Western sanctions, which complicate his ambitious plans for the Iranian people.

The Iranian government has proposed a 200% increase in the military budget for the upcoming fiscal year, starting in March 2025, amid escalating tensions with Israel.

Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani announced this significant increase during her weekly press conference, linking it to “the tension imposed by Israel in the region.”

However, she did not specify the exact military expenditure for the next year, as Iran typically refrains from providing precise figures on its military spending, especially concerning activities linked to the Revolutionary Guard.

Most of Iran’s military budget is allocated to the Revolutionary Guard, responsible for defending the regime, according to the official IRNA news agency. The remaining funds are divided between the General Staff of the Armed Forces and the regular army.

Iran supports armed groups in the region, notably Hezbollah, which has been engaged in open conflict with Israeli forces since last month after a year of cross-border exchanges. Iran also backs groups in Iraq and Yemen.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Iran’s military spending was approximately $10.3 billion in 2023, excluding the Revolutionary Guard’s share.

In comparison, Israel’s military budget rose by 24% to $27.5 billion in 2023.

Although Pezeshkian stated that his government “consulted with various lawmakers and experts” when drafting the budget, concerns about rising gasoline prices have sparked fears of public unrest.

Discussions among parliament members have not explicitly mentioned an increase in fuel prices, but the budget proposal leaves that possibility open.

Tehran lawmaker Hossein Samsami predicted a potential 40% rise in gasoline prices in the upcoming budget bill. Fellow lawmaker Hossein Ali Haji Delighani remarked that the government’s stance on the price increase remains unclear.

Meanwhile, Gholamreza Dehghan Nasrabadi cautioned that raising gasoline prices could trigger social and political unrest under current economic conditions.

Gholamreza Tajgardoon, head of the Budget Consolidation Committee, urged lawmakers to “amend the budget instead of rejecting it outright.” He noted that the committee would remove provisions conflicting with existing laws.

Last week, the government revealed that the production cost of gasoline is around 80,000 Iranian rials per liter, excluding the cost of crude oil.

The Iranian rial has fallen to record lows against the dollar, with inflation rising by 33% in 2023, according to a previous report from the German news agency, dpa.



Global Interest in Israel's Air-Launched Ballistic Missiles

This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)
This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)
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Global Interest in Israel's Air-Launched Ballistic Missiles

This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)
This handout picture released by the Israeli army on October 26, 2024, shows an Israeli fighter jet departing a hangar at an undisclosed location in Israel. (Photo by AFP)

Israel's effective use of air-launched ballistic missiles in its airstrikes against Iran is expected to pique interest elsewhere in acquiring the weapons, which most major powers have avoided in favor of cruise missiles and glide bombs.
The Israeli Army said its Oct. 26 raid knocked out Iranian missile factories and air defenses in three waves of strikes.
Researchers said that based on satellite imagery, targets included buildings once used in Iran's nuclear program, according to Reuters.
Tehran defends such targets with “a huge variety” of anti-aircraft systems, said Justin Bronk, an airpower and technology expert at London's Royal United Services Institute.
Cruise missiles are easier targets for dense, integrated air defenses than ballistic missiles are.
But ballistic missiles are often fired from known launch points, and most cannot change course in flight.
Experts say high-speed, highly accurate air-launched ballistic missiles such as the Israel Aerospace Industries Rampage get around problems facing ground-based ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles - weapons that use small wings to fly great distances and maintain altitude.
“The main advantage of an ALBM over an ALCM is speed to penetrate defenses,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California.
“The downside - accuracy - looks to have been largely solved,” he said.
Ground-launched ballistic missiles - which Iran used to attack Israel twice this year, and which both Ukraine and Russia have used since Russia's invasion in 2022 - are common in the arsenals of many countries. So, too, are cruise missiles.
Because ALBMs are carried by aircraft, their launch points are flexible, helping strike planners.
“The advantage is that being air-launched, they can come from any direction, complicating the task of defending against them,” said Uzi Rubin, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, one of the architects of Israel's missile defenses.
The weapons are not invulnerable to air defenses. In Ukraine, Lockheed Martin Patriot PAC-3 missiles have repeatedly intercepted Russia's Khinzhals.
Many countries, including the United States and Britain, experimented with ALBMs during the Cold War. Only Israel, Russia and China are known to field the weapons now.
The US tested a hypersonic ALBM, the Lockheed Martin AGM-183, but it received no funding for the 2025 fiscal year.
Because it has a large arsenal of cruise missiles and other types of long-range strike weapons, Washington has otherwise shown little interest in ALBMs.
A US Air Force official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said ALBMs are not used in Air Force operations.
Raytheon's SM-6, an air-defense missile that has been repurposed for air-to-air and surface-to-surface missions, also has been tested as an air-launched anti-ship weapon, said a senior US defense technical analyst, who declined to be identified because the matter is sensitive.
In tests the missile was able to strike a small target on land representing the center of mass of a destroyer, the analyst said. Publicly, the SM-6 is not meant for air-to-ground strikes.
Because ALBMs are essentially a combination of guidance, warheads and rocket motors, many countries that have precision weapons already have the capability to pursue them, a defense industry executive said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
“This is a clever way of taking a common set of technologies and components and turning it into a very interesting new weapon that gives them far more capability, and therefore options, at a reasonable price,” the executive said.