Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine at the fastest rate since the early days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of Greater London over the past month, analysts and war bloggers say.

The war is entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its most dangerous phase after Moscow's forces made some of their biggest territorial gains and the United States allowed Kyiv to strike back with US missiles.

"Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine," independent Russian news group Agentstvo said in a report.

The Russian army captured almost 235 sq km (91 sq miles) in Ukraine over the past week, a weekly record for 2024, it said.

Russian forces had taken 600 sq km (232 sq miles) in November, it added, citing data from DeepState, a group with close links to the Ukrainian army that studies combat footage and provides frontline maps.

Russia began advancing faster in eastern Ukraine in July just as Ukrainian forces carved out a sliver of its western region of Kursk. Since then, the Russian advance has accelerated, according to open source maps.

Russia's forces are moving into the town of Kurakhove, a stepping stone towards the logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, and have been exploiting the vulnerabilities of Kyiv troops along the frontline, analysts said.

"Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023," analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report.

The General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces said in its Monday update that 45 battles of varying intensity were raging along the Kurakhove part of the frontline that evening.

The Institute for the Study of War report and pro-Russian military bloggers say Russian troops are in Kurakhove. Deep State said on its Telegram messaging app on Monday that Russian forces are near Kurakhove.

"Russian forces' advances in southeastern Ukraine are largely the result of the discovery and tactical exploitation of vulnerabilities in Ukraine's lines," Institute analysts said in their report.

Russia says it will achieve all of its aims in Ukraine no matter what the West says or does.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly said peace cannot be established until all Russian forces are expelled and all territory captured by Moscow, including Crimea, is returned.

But outnumbered by Russian troops, the Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and provide equipment to new units.

Zelenskiy has said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin's main objectives were to occupy the entire Donbas, spanning the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and oust Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, parts of which they have controlled since August.



France on the Back Foot in Africa after Chadian Snub

File photo: Chad's president Idriss Deby (R) talks with France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) during an official visit to meet with 'Barkhane' soldiers, at the Presidential palace in N'Djamena on December 23, 2018. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
File photo: Chad's president Idriss Deby (R) talks with France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) during an official visit to meet with 'Barkhane' soldiers, at the Presidential palace in N'Djamena on December 23, 2018. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
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France on the Back Foot in Africa after Chadian Snub

File photo: Chad's president Idriss Deby (R) talks with France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) during an official visit to meet with 'Barkhane' soldiers, at the Presidential palace in N'Djamena on December 23, 2018. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
File photo: Chad's president Idriss Deby (R) talks with France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) during an official visit to meet with 'Barkhane' soldiers, at the Presidential palace in N'Djamena on December 23, 2018. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

A French plan to significantly reduce its military presence in West and central Africa risks backfiring and further diminishing the former colonial power's influence in the region at a time when Russia is gaining ground.
A French envoy to President Emmanuel Macron this week handed in a report with proposals on how France could reduce its military presence in Chad, Gabon and Ivory Coast, where it has deployed troops for decades, Reuters reported.
Details of the report have not been made public but two sources said the plan is to cut the number of troops to 600 from around 2,200 now. The sources said Chad would keep the largest contingent with 300 French troops, down from 1,000. However, in a surprise move that caught French officials on the hop, the government of Chad - a key Western ally in the fight against militants in the region - on Thursday abruptly ended its defense cooperation pact with France. That could lead to French troops leaving the central African country altogether.
"For France it is the start of the end of their security engagement in central and Western Africa," said Ulf Laessing, director of the Sahel Program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali.
"Chad was the aircraft carrier of the French army, its logistical headquarters. If Chad doesn't exist, the French army will have a huge problem to keep running its other operations."
In a further blow to France, Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye told French state TV on Thursday it was inappropriate for French troops to maintain a presence in his country, where 350 French soldiers are currently based. France has already pulled its soldiers out from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, following military coups in those West African countries and spreading anti-French sentiment. Paris is also shifting more attention to Europe with the war in Ukraine and increasing budgetary constraints, diplomats said.
The review envisions the remaining French soldiers in the region focusing on training, intelligence exchange and responding to requests from countries for help, depending on their needs, the sources said. Chad's move to end the cooperation deal had not been discussed with Paris and shocked the French, according to the two sources and other officials. France, which wants to keep a presence in Chad in part because of its work to help ease one of the world's worst humanitarian crises unfolding now in neighboring Sudan, responded only 24 hours after Chad made its announcement.
"France takes note and intends to continue the dialogue to implement these orientations," the foreign ministry said in a statement.
One of the two sources, a French official with knowledge of Chadian affairs, said Chad's government appeared to have seen the French decision to more than halve its military presence there as a snub. Chad also felt the French would no longer be in a position to guarantee the security of the military regime led by President Mahamat Idriss Deby, this source said.
Macron had backed Deby despite criticism since Deby seized power following the death of his father, who ruled Chad for 30 years until he was killed in 2021 during an incursion by rebels. Deby won an election held this year.
In its statement on Thursday evening, released hours after the French foreign minister had visited the Sudanese border in eastern Chad with his counterpart, Chad's foreign ministry said N'djamena wanted to fully assert its sovereignty after more than six decades of independence from France. It said the decision should in no way undermine the friendly relations between the two countries. Earlier this year, a small contingent of US special forces left Chad amid a review of US cooperation with the country.
The French drawdown, coupled with a US pullback from Africa, contrasts with the increasing influence of Russia and other countries, including Türkiye, on the continent. Russian mercenaries are helping prop up the military governments of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, and are also fighting alongside them against extremist militants. However, French officials and other sources played down Russia's ability to take advantage of the French setback in Chad, at least in the short term. The French source familiar with Chadian affairs noted that Russia and Chad backed rival factions in Sudan's war. Russia also has major military commitments in Syria and the war in Ukraine.